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What We Read Today 12 October 2015

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.

This feature is published every day late afternoon New York time. For early morning review of headlines see "The Early Bird" published every day in the early am at GEI News (membership not required for access to "The Early Bird".).

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Articles about events, conflicts and disease around the world

Global

  • Deaton wins economics Nobel Prize for work on consumption, poverty (Reuters)  Economist Angus Deaton has won the 2015 economics Nobel Prize for his work on consumption, poverty and welfare that has helped governments to improve policy through tools such as household surveys and tax changes.
  • Angus Deaton Richly Deserves His Nobel (Bloomberg View)  Angus Deaton, this year's winner of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences, is a rarity: a careful social scientist and an honest policy wonk. In recent years, economics has had no better champion.  For many years a professor at Princeton, Deaton played a crucial role in developing methods for correctly measuring poverty and consumption -- a more difficult problem than it appears, and fundamental to many branches of the science. Later, he connected these findings to the mysteries of growth and development.

U.S.

  • OPEC Sees U.S. Oil Output Falling for First Time in Eight Years (Bloomberg)  U.S. oil production is projected to decrease in 2016 for the first time in eight years, according to OPEC.  Total output of crude and natural gas liquids is forecast to fall 0.5% to 12.47 million barrels a day next year, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries said in its monthly market report Monday.  Econintersect:  This is ridiculous!  Half a percent in projections reaching out 15 months is in the noise level.
  • Inequality to drive 'massive policy shift,' BofA's Michael Hartnett says (CNBC)   Rising income inequality and a deflationary global economic picture are going to lead to big changes in 2016, according to one Wall Street forecast.  Quantitative easing and zero interest rates are on their way out in the U.S., and Michael Hartnett, chief investment strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, believes they will be replaced with massive infrastructure spending.  The result would benefit Main Street more than Wall Street, which has had a banner seven-year run helped by historically easy Federal Reserve monetary policy.
  • Here's Why Goldman Economists Expect Even Lower U.S. Unemployment (Bloomberg)  The trend of falling labor force participation is projected to continue to fall about a quarter percentage-point annually in coming years, and since people not looking for work aren't counted as unemployed, the jobless rate will drop below 4.5% in 2018 from its current 5.1%, Goldman's team says.

labor.participation.rate.2000.2015Lebanon

Syria

  • Syria conflict: US air drop for anti-IS forces in Hassakeh (BBC News)  The US military has delivered more than 45 tonnes of ammunition to rebels fighting the jihadist group Islamic State (IS) in north-eastern Syria.  C-17 transport aircraft, accompanied by fighter escorts, dropped pallets of supplies overnight in Hassakeh province, a Pentagon spokesman said.  The consignment reportedly comprised small arms, ammunition and grenades.

South Africa

Other Economics and Business Items of Note and Miscellanea

  • 12 of the worst financial advisors in America: 2015 (LifeHealthPro)  The title could well have been "12 of the biggest thieves".
  • The Case for Making Economics Research Easier to Replicate (The Wall Street Journal)  In a new paper, Andrew Chang, an economist at the Federal Reserve and Phillip Li, an economist with the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency, describe their attempt to replicate 67 papers from 13 well-regarded economics journals. They selected papers that used U.S. data, and that sought to establish an empirical result involving gross domestic product, or GDP, thanks to its status as a commonly used indicator of macroeconomic conditions.  The results are distressing, to say the least:  Just over half of the papers where data and methodology (including computer programs) was available to the reviewers were found to have the most general interpretation of conclusions replicated.  For the half not replicated, the most common reason was “missing public data or code.”   This is not an isolated experience.  Earlier studies with similar results are mentioned in the article.

economic.research.replication

  • Gold hits 3-month high as traders bet on U.S. rate hike delay (Reuters)   Gold rose to its highest level since early July on Monday as expectations that the Federal Reserve will postpone an expected U.S. interest rate hike beyond the end of the year pressured the dollar to three-week lows against a currency basket.  The dollar index was down 0.1% on the day, stung by doubts that U.S. rates will rise this year.  Spot gold reached a peak of $1,169.00 an ounce and was up 0.6% at $1,163.96 an ounce at 1401 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for December delivery were up $8.4 an ounce at $1,164.50.  See next article.
  • Gold Streaming Chart (Investing.com)  Gold is up approximately 7.5% from lows in late July.  The chart below with weekly candles puts that rise in perspective.

gold.weekly.1.year.chart


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