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Econintersect: We leave it to readers to decide what the emails reveal - see next two articles.
Econintersect: We leave it to readers to decide what EU leaders expect - see next two articles.
Smart Money Most Committed to Falling Rates Since The Last Peak in Long Bond Yields (Advisor Perspectives) Hat tip to Sig Silber. Commercial traders (AKA the smart money) has massively flip flopped their positioning since the end of last year with respect to the long bond. In aggregate, commercial traders have moved from a net short position (benefiting when rates rise) of about 50K derivative contracts to a net long position (benefiting when rates fall) of 22K contracts.
Lies, Damned Lies and Alpha (All About Alpha) Hat tip to Kristen Fox via LinkedIn. “Alpha” as a concept has great appeal since it allows investors to condense all the complexities of “added value” into a single metric. It enables us to quantify in simple terms the value proposition of active management: a low beta manager is less risky, a high alpha manager adds value. Statistical models are incredibly useful and have meaningfully improved our understanding of pernicious issues like undeclared leverage and hidden correlations. However, as with many elegant ideas, it’s incredibly important to pay close attention to the assumptions. Otherwise, we’ve got a big garbage in-garbage out problem. Here is one of the examples provided in the article. Fund A appears to clearly outperform the S&P 500 (positive alpha) and with a beta significantly less than 1.0 (indicating less volatility and/or correlation below 1), However, the author says:
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