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What We Read Today 03 April 2015

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.

This feature is published every day late afternoon New York time. For early morning review of headlines see "The Early Bird" published every day in the early am at GEI News (membership not required for access to "The Early Bird".).

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Here's who's stuck with the biggest tax bills (CNBC). Click on map for interactive infographic at CNBC.

tax.burden.us.map


Global

U.S.

EU

France

Turkey

Nigeria

  • Muhammadu Buhari's Presidential Victory in Nigeria (Council on Foreign Relations). There are significant challenges facing the new president. The Boko Haram insurgency and reduced oil revenues are likely to make Nigerian President-elect Muhammadu Buhari's political honeymoon a short one.

Somalia

  • Al-Shabab (Council on Foreign Relations) Discussion of the origins and objectives of the Al Qaeda-linked Somalian organization Al-Shabab.

Iran

The April 24, 1984, edition of the British defense publication Jane's Defence Weekly informed its readers: "Iran is engaged in the production of an atomic bomb, likely to be ready within two years, according to press reports in the Persian Gulf last week."

China

Japan



These Signs Point to an Airline Industry Secular Bull Market (Frank Holmes, U.S. Global Investors). Frank Holmes has contributed to GEI. A long standing sector play is to sell energy services and buy airlines when oil prices are falling. And that has certainly worked over the last none months. But that is not what Frank Holmes is talking about here. Over the past three plus years the S&P Airlines Index has been a top performer. From its lows in 2Q and 3Q 2011 the S&P Airlines Index is up more than 280%. (See graph below.) The S&P500 Index ETF (NYSE:SPY) is up less than 100% from its lows in September 2011. (Not shown in graph below.)

Holmes discusses the reasons why the airlines will continue on a high profit tear even with higher fuel prices. He says to stay with the sector and not play it as a trade against fuel prices.

airlines.index.performance.2010.2015.600x450


Traders Are Now Expecting the Fed to Raise Rates Later Than Ever Before (Matthew Boesler, Bloomberg Business). Ahead of the March jobs report on Friday traders had moved the expected Fed rate hike out to the end of November. See next article for what happened after the employment report.

rate.hike.predict.fed.fund.futures.600x480


Markets were closed today so no update on Fed Fund Futures were posted. There will likely be a shift into 2016 implied first rate hike on Monday.


Below-average income expectations point to weak price growth (Ben Garber, Moody's Capital Markets Research). There is no sign of rising wage pressure. Even though wage increase expectations are rising they are still below the long-term median. And, even more important, in the latter half of 2014 as expectations continued to rise the amount of increases tailed off remarkably. How long do you think it will take reality to influence expectations?

earnings.expect.hourly.wage.growth


Other Economics and Business Items of Note and Miscellanea

Janet Yellen: Economic Inequality Long An Interest Of The Fed (The Wall Street Journal)

On April Fools' Day, Planet Money Tries Out Economics Jokes (NPR)

Negotiating a new regional order for economics and politics (Jakarta Post)

Larry Summers to Ben Bernanke: I Hope You're Right, But... (The Wall Street Journal)

Under pressure: economics of liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects (KPMG)

Economics of U.S. Oil Export Ban (Rice University Baker Institute)



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