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Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.
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AP-GfK Poll: Most Americans Favor a Higher Minimum Wage (Emily Swanson, Associated Press, abc News) Proposals to increase the federal minimum wage, as well as to require employers to give paid leave to their employees, find few objections among Americans as a whole but Republicans are more nearly evenly divided. For all Americans:
For result details go to The AP-GfK Poll, January 2015.
Articles about events, conflicts and disease around the world
The Chilling Thing Devon Energy Just Said About the US Oil Glut (Wolf Richter, Wolf Street) Oil production in the U.S. will continue to rise in 2015 in spite of the price of oil being half what it was a year ago. The production with rise in spite of the reduction in drilling cap ex and a 1/3 reduction in the number of drilling rigs. Richter explains what is going on as an increase in production by exploiting only the high production wells in an effort to realize the cash flow necessary to carry the large debt loads that exist for the producers. He offers an example from a recent Devon Energy statement.
Richter shows the nearly 50% increase for Devon oil production in 2014. They expect to "only" increase by half as much in 2015.
What Will Happen to Housing When the Baby Boomers are Gone? (George Masnick, Housing Perspectives, Harvard Joint Center for Housing Studies) Adult population growth in the U.S. will decline from recent rates between 2.2 and 2.6 million per year to close to1.5 million within three decades. That implies something of the order of a 40% decline in the growth rate for housing units at the most and certainly more than 20% if many adults cohabit with another adult. The organic growth of U.S. population will fall by about 70%; the only things saving the U.S. from a Japan like or China-like population growth contraction is international migration, which is projected to increase by 25% by the 2050s. Here is this paper's conclusion:
Mind-Blowing: China Consumes More Gold Than the World Produces (Frank Holmes, U.S. Global Investors) Fran Holmes has contributed to GEI. The headline is suspect only because within the article the consumption and production numbers are restricted to a short time period:
Actually for longer periods of time (like the years shown below) the consumption of gold is far less than the 2,000 to 3,000 metric tons annualized from the short period selected. In fact, except for 2013. India and China combined have been consuming less than 2,000 metric tons of gold annually. See next article for amount of gold mined each year.
Global mine production of gold from 2005 to 2014 (in metric tons) (Statista) Using the data in the previous article, we can see that in recent years India and China combined have grown to have more than half the global production of mined gold annually.
Money Is Bailing Out of Canada (Wolf Richter, Wolf Street) Foreign investors and Canadians themsleves dumped stocks and bonds in December, the second largest decline for bond holdings in at least four years and the third largest decline in equities over the same time period. Rcihter says the bulk of the bonds sold by Canadians haad proceeds going into U.S. Treasuries. (Econintersect: This is undoubtedly a "carry trade" effect as the Loonie (Cnadian dollar) has been falling vs. the U.S. dollar.)
Other Economics and Business Items of Note and Miscellanea
Supply-side Costs of the Great Recession (Brookings Institution)
Warning: too much finance is bad for the economy (The Economist)
Reassessing the impact of finance on growth (BIS Working Paper)
Gundlach: Fed Raising Interest Rates ‘Philosophically’ (ThinkAdvisor) DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach is bullish on gold and bearish on oil.
A stronger U.S. dollar: the winners and losers (Brookings Institution)
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