econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



>> Click Here for Historical Wall Post Listing <<

What We Read Today 09 February 2015

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries (and sometimes longer ones) of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.

Starting today this feature will be published late afternoon.  For those who have become dependent on an early morning review of headlines we are adding a GEI News article daily to be published  in the early am (New York time).  Look for "The Early Bird" which started this morning (membership not required for access).

BECOME A GEI MEMBER - IT's FREE!

Every day most of this column is available only to GEI members.

To become a GEI Member simply subscribe to our FREE daily newsletter.

Australian PM Tony Abbott down but not out after no-confidence vote (Monica Attard, CNN)  Abbott has survived a non-confidence vote among his Liberal party members by a 61-39 margin.  The closeness of the vote indicates that he is "irretrievably damaged".  The weakness of Abbott's position is revealed when the 40 votes of his cabinet are removed he lost the remaining votes by a margin nearly 2:1.


Articles about events, conflicts and disease around the world

Germany

Greece

Syria

Ukraine

Russia

China

India


Opinion: More jobs means more problems for the Fed (Michael Madowitz, MarketWatch)  Madowitz says we cannot forget about the hidden slack in the labor market that is not reflected by the unemployment rate:  The labor force participation rate is still at decades lows.  And the celebrated wage growth over the last two months is less impressive in context.  He writes:

Wage growth was among the strongest and most discussed indicators — month-over-month average hourly earnings were up about 0.5% after a surprising decline last month. The year-over-year increase, however, was just 2.2%, which is stronger than in quite some time, but barely above inflation and way behind productivity growth increases since the recession.

So with no price pressures, real or expected, and no apparent wage pressures, why should the Fed be thinking about tightening?

wages-productivity-1996-2014


Five Decades of Middle Class Wages: Not an Encouraging Perspective (Doug Short, Advisor Perspectives dshort.com) Doug Short contributes to GEI. Doug has constructed a hypothetical real weekly wage over the past 50 years by multiplying the median real hourly wage times the median hours worked per week. This "median" weekly income for Joe Sixpack has fallen more than 14% since 1972.

earning-weekly-1964-2014


The truth about China's lies and statistics (John Lee, China Spectator) China has a very low GDP per capita and over one quarter of its people live on less than $2 (U.S.) per day. Over 100 million are still below the poverty line figure of $1.25 per day. Its debt-to-GDP ratio is over 200% (possibly 300% due to inflated GDP reported), and the fixed investment model is running out of steam. As its population ages, increases in labor productivity are the main hope for sustained growth. The trends may not be disastrous, but China is becoming a 'normal' economy with abnormally big problems.


China Will Allow Banks to Set Yuan-U.S. Dollar Rates for Retail Customers (Wynne Wang, The Wall Street Journal) This sounds significant at first blush but is quite limited in scope. It applies only to individual customers who are only allowed to purchase a total of $50,000 of foreign currencies in a year. China seems to be inching toward an easing of exchange rate controls over the renminbi. In March, China doubled the parity rate, a daily reference rate, to allow the yuan to trade 2% either way against the dollar. This increase was expected to inject greater volatilities into the currency exchange market.


Some thoughts on slowing house price appreciation in the US (Walter Kurtz, Sober Look) The only time in 30 years that prices were this far above "fair evaluation" was in the housing bubble.

housing-fair-value-2014-may


Have We Been Reading the Declaration of Independence All Wrong? (MSN News) Scholars are uncertain whether a period (see below) actually exists in the original Declaration of Independence. If it is not there then Jefferson and the signers of the Declaration of Independence can be inferred to have a "big government" view that has not previously been considered and also that the fundamental rights of "all men" extend beyond "Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness" to the power of government. With the period in question in place, government can be interpreted as subservient; without it government assumes a more equal footing. See also If Only Thomas Jefferson Could Settle the Issue (Jennifer Schuessler, The New York Times).

happiness-in-declaration-of-independence


U.S. Job Creation Index (Weekly) (Gallup)  Repeated from 04 July 2014. (We wondered at the time what this might mean and now we know that employment growth was picking up for the following months.)  Gallup's Job Creation Index is the net of Gallup's Job Market measure, subtracting the percentage of workers who say their employer is letting people go and reducing the size of its workforce from the percentage who say their employer is hiring new workers and expanding the size of its workforce. Weekly results are based on telephone interviews with approximately 4,000 working adults; margin of error is ±2 percentage points. The index has not been higher than the current level since 2007.

job-creation-index-2014-may


These oil frackers are pulling away from rivals (Philip van Dorn, MarketWatch)  While many look in the rear view mirror and start writing off frackers and horizontal drillers, others, like van Dorn, look at the evolving data which explains why U.S. oil production is still going up even as the number of active rigs is going down.  One fact van Dorn reveals which you may not have know is that “while rigs applied to vertical wells have decreased dramatically by 46% year-over-year, rigs applied to horizontal wells have seen a slight reduction of 5%.”  The rig count is being largely impacted by shutting down the marginal traditional wells near end-of-life, commonly called stripper wells.  Why is the number of rigs involved in horizontal drilling remaining so high?  Because the productivity of those rigs is surging as producers move down the learning curve.  Just how this oil production/price chess game will play out remains to be seen.

oil-horizontal-drill-productivity

Other Economics and Business Items of Note and Miscellanea

Citi: Oil Could Plunge to $20, and This Might Be 'the End of OPEC' (Bloomberg Business)

Rand Paul’s Mixed-Up Math on the Fed (American Enterprise Institute)  Confusion from Kentucky.

The USA of I.O.U. (Banker's anonymous) The U.S. has a history of too-big-to-fail. In the early years of the 19th century the TBTF were the stockbrokers, traders and financiers of the day.

These Experts Know Exactly Where Oil Prices Are Headed (Bloomberg Business)  It's somewhere between $30 and $200 a barrel (unless you're Citigroup and then $30 could be $20 (see above)..

DARPA's ALASA space launch system would turn airports into spaceports (gizmag)

Not Immune (The New Yorker)  With measles breaking out it is unfortunate that political figures speaking out have little understanding of public health.

Resistant (The New Yorker)  Book review:  Pox: An American History by Michael Willrich.  The medical history of vaccination is about great success; the political history is not.

Austrian Economists, 9/11 Truthers and Brain Worms (Noah Smith, Bloomberg) This is a particularly vitriolic takedown of Austrian School economic thinking.


Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.






Econintersect Behind the Wall









search_box
Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.







Keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government





























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved