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What We Read Today 20 February 2014

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number included.

  • Will China shake the world again? (Robert Peston, BBC Business) Hat tip to John O'Donnell. Peston, the BBC Business Editor, reports on his trip to China and his interviews there. He says it's not a question if China will slow, only of how. According to Peston, if rebalancing does not start now and progress gradually over the next few years the alternative will occur: a crash of monumental proportions that will "shake the globe". Sounds like what Michael Pettis has been saying for several years.
  • Retirement Strategy: When Is The Perfect Time To Buy Stocks? (Alan Saltzman, Regarded Solutions, Seeking Alpha) Hat tip to Global Economic Intersection discussion group on LinkedIn. Want to time the market? Saltzman indicates that investing is a continuous process and it is much more important to "keep your money moving". See also articles "Behind the Wall" that relate to this theme.

The focus today is investing, including a couple of more articles about gold that didn't make yesterday's 'behind the wall' deadline. There are 13 articles discussed 'behind the wall'.

Please support Global Economic Intersection by subscribing to our premium content (Behind the Wall) for only $25 per year.

  • A Brief History of JP Morgan’s Massive Fines (Jared Cummans, Dividend.com) Since June of 2011 JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) has paid $33.9 billion in settlements for illegal practices, with mortgage and foreclosure misdoings heading the list with the largest dollar amounts. This article presents the events reported in chronological order.
  • These Gold Charts Will Make Your Heart Beat Faster (Frank Holmes, U.S. Global Investors) Frank Holmes has contributed to Global Economic Intersection. In case you didn't get enough about gold yesterday here is some. Holmes thinks gold will have a pullback and then head higher. In January China bought more gold than was produced. He sees this as bullish for gold in 2014.

gold-fed-divergence-frank-holmes-2014-feb-19

The same graph with different notations:

gold-double-bottom-frank-holmes-2014feb-10

  • TSLA – Tesla Motors (Last:217.74) (Rick Ackerman, Rick's Picks) Rick Ackerman has contributed to Global Economic Intersection. Rick has a new tagert fro Tesla: $276.96. Mark Rogowsky reports in Forbes about speculation that Elon Musk may parley his big stock gains into funding a "Gigafactory" for batteries.
  • Whatsapp And $19 Billion (Benedict Evans, Seeking Alpha) This acquisition was priced at $42 per user. If Facebook were to try to double its users by acquisitions (currently at 1.2 billion) at this price it would only cost around $50 billion. Too much? They are already 37.5% of the way with the WhatsApp purchase. Of course the overlap between the population already on board and those using the new purchase may be considerable and the cost of getting new users could be nuch greater than $42 each.
  • Buy This Centuries-Old Cash Machine While It's Cheap (Marshall Hargrave, Street Authority) Hargrave rates Lorillard (NYSE:LO) as a much stronger prospect than major competitors Altria (NYSE:MO) and Reynolds American (NYSE:RAI). A recent pullback on an earnings disappointment is a buying opportunity, according to Hargrave.

lorillard-chart

  • Seeing the Big Picture (Robert P. Seawright, The Big Picture) The longer the holding period the lower the probability of losing money on stocks.

stock-gain-probabilities-per-holding-period

taper-opinion-political-calculations-2014-jan

GDP-population-compare

Thailand-stocks-2011-aug-thru-2013-july


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