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What We Read Today 15 February 2014

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number accepted.

Today 'behind the wall' is focused on investing articles.

When chocolate sales for valentines, and card sales for Mother's day actually decline, will it be the final nail in the coffin of The Century of The Self? Will we return to such organizations as the Society for the Prevention of Useless Giving?
Officials at Covered California said they are shutting down their Small Business Health Options Program website while they redesign it. The SHOP division has been taking applications on paper, and it will continue to do so while the exchange is overhauling the SHOP site.
  • Is This Goldman Sachs’ Most Dangerous Trade Yet? (Shah Gilani, Wall Street Insights & Indictments) Shah Gilani has contributed to Global Economic Intersection. Control of commodity uranium by banks (in this case Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank) is a security threat to nations, according to Gilani. See also the new Matt Taibbi article discussed 'behind the wall' yesterday.

Today all 12 articles 'behind the wall' are related to investing.

If you have not signed up for premium content, please do so now to help support the Global Economic Intersection site. You will get access to reviews of 70-80 articles per week for only 6.84 cents per day.

  • Double Trouble (John Hussman, Hussman Funds) Rarely do all the models tracked by Hussman have agreement about prospective stock market returns as they do right now. And rarely have the 10-year projected returns been this low: 2.7% annual returns for the next ten years.

stock-projected-returns-hussman-2014-feb

Five years from now, I believe we will look back and see that 2014 was part of the early stages of a multi-year secular bull market for US equities, characterized by rising stock prices with only short, intervening market corrections.
  • Contrarian Value Investing in a Liquidity-Driven Environment (Francois Sicart, Tocqueville Asset Management, Advisor Perspectives) Among many market metrics discussed in this article, one caught our attention particularly. The agreement between PE (Price/Earnings) ratios has rarely been this tight. In the past this extreme behavior has preceded (by a couple of years) a major market downturn. The following graph from the article has been annotated by Econintersect.

stock-pe-dispersion-tocqueville

  • Colonialism's Enduring Dividends (Bhaskar Chakravorti, Foreign Affairs) Colonial powers of past centuries still have an economic advantage interacting with former colonies. Free registration is required to read complete article.
Are emerging markets a bargain or yet another proverbial falling knife?

The author opines that the dollar holds the key for emerging markets. If the dollar fails to advance emerging markets may already be a bargain. Many good graphics in this article, the following one of them.

em-price-to-book-mackintosh-ft-long-short-2014-feb-12

emerging-market-investment-flows

  • Are big gains coming for Big Oil? (Jonathan Yates, TheStreet.com) Oil stocks are down for the year but Yates says rally has started. And he is bullish long term as well.
  • Bullish Possibilities (Dominic Cimino, Preferred Planning Concepts, Advisor Perspectives) Cimino sites the bullishness of the Dow Jones Transports (shown below) and the need for a signal from the $SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index - not shown here) to break the twelve-year resistance level that it now bumps up against. These are two metrics he is watching for confirmation of bullishness.

Click on chart for larger image at Advisor Perspectives dshort.com.
dow-trans-cimino-adv-persp-2014-feb-14

gold-200-day-frank-holmes-2014-feb-14


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