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What We Read Today 09 February 2014

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number accepted.

'Behind the Wall' are four articles evaluating stock markets, three on China banking and credit plus three other articles.

stocks-last-4-weeks-doug-2014-feb-07

[H]istory is strongly suggesting we use the 5% level below of the 50 day moving average of the S&P as a significant and meaningful risk management line in the sand. If we exceed this level to the downside for any sustainable period ahead, we’re all going to have to assume that something different is beginning to happen and that price risk is accelerating in perhaps an unacceptable manner. (2010 article)

Pretti suggests that the significance of the 5% rule warning may be returning. He says the failures of 2010, 2011 and 2012 coincided with Fed QE interventions which short-circuited corrections.

Brien-Pretti-5-percent-rule-2003-2014

  • ICBC Offers Clients Option to Recoup Funds From Trust (Jun Luo, Bloomberg News) Last week Chinese investors were mysteriously bailed out of a product issued by China Credit Trust Co. that had offered returns that sounded too good to be true and ended up becoming delinquent in making payments. The name of the trust was "Credit Equals Gold".

china-credit-bubble

eu-corruption-map-bbc

corrections-2009-2014

  • U.S. Productivity Growth Has Taken a Dive (Edward C. Prescott and Lee E. Ohanian, The Wall Street Journal) Productivity has averaged about 1.1% annual growth since 2011, less than half the historical rate since 1948. The authors have some ideas on how to increase it, including deregulation, getting rid of bad effects from Obamacare and making it easier for immigrants to start businesses. Even improved education gets a mention.

stocks-nom-since-2000-600pxstocks-real-since-2000-600px


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