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What We Read Today 15 January 2014

Econintersect: Every day our editors collect the most interesting things they find from around the internet and present a summary "reading list" which will include very brief summaries of why each item has gotten our attention. Suggestions from readers for "reading list" items are gratefully reviewed, although sometimes space limits the number accepted.

  • How will conservatives save the poor? (Noah Smith, Noahpinion) Liberals have not eliminated poverty or solved the social problems of the poor and have probably caused some negative side effects, according to Smith. He suggests that conservatives should help improve this situation by doing more than saying "just get the government out of the way".
  • What 5 Days of Trading Tell Us About 2014: Jim O’Neill (Jim O'Neill, Bloomberg, ThinkAdvisor) If the first five days of the year are up for the stock market there is a 75% to 83% probability for an up year. If the first five days are down the probability of an up year falls to near 50%. After the first five days of 2014 U.S. stocks were down 0.5%.
  • Don't Believe The (Marijuana) Hype (Maia Szalavitz, The Fix) What most people think they know about marijuana-especially media columnists-is just years of unscientific, paranoid, and even racist government propaganda.

Note: This is the last day of complementary access to the Behind the Wall content.

  • Capitalism Redefined (Nick Hanauer and Eric Beinhocker, Democracy) A thorough discussion of the limits of capitalism. See next article for further discussion.

...prosperity in human societies can't be properly understood by just looking at monetary measures of income or wealth. Prosperity in a society is the accumulation of solutions to human problems.
  • Capitalism Redefined? .. Not Really. (Roger Erickson Mike Norman Economics) Roger Erickson is a Global Economic Intersection contributor. He is disappointed that the discussion (previous article) did not go further:

Two capitalists list capitalism's flaws ... can't make any plausible suggestions. For Democracy's Sake! Can't these guys just use ANY previously existing chemical system as a precedent model? How about the trillions of biochemical model systems already existing? Or the billions of physiological models? Or even mathematical models of closed-loop, ecological systems?
  • Long Term Bond Yields (Chart of the Day, 08 January 2014) Yes bond yields have risen sharply over the last several months, from a low near 1.4% in late July 2012 to 3% in the last few days. But similar spikes in interest rates have occurred repatedly over the past 28 years. The 10-year bond yield will have to get close to 4% to break the long-term trend channel.

10-year-yield-channel-2014-jan-08http://www.chartoftheday.com/20140108.htm?H

  • How a Lousy Economy Can Make You Sick (Gil Weinreich, ThinkAdvisor) New studies show ill effects of the economy and market—ulcers, migraines, even hospitalization—on stressed investors.
Conservatives need to stop apologizing and acting as though they're in the ideological minority on every issue, and they need to begin demanding progressives justify their own views in the public eye.

  • Nest-ing Data (Jalak Jobanputra, The Barefoot VC) Google just spent $3.2 billion for Nest, a company that sells "smart" monitors (thermostats and smoke detectors). Was that smart? According to Mashable (Adario Strange) it is amove that should arouse fear.
  • Dazed and Confused: Matt Yglesias on the Job Guarantee (Pavlina Tcherneva, New Economic Perspectives) Pavlina Tcherneva has contributed to Global Economic Intersection. Tcherneva says that Yglesias has confused 'work for welfare' with the proposal of a 'Job Guarantee'.
...are we still mired in the Secular Bear that began in March of 2000, with the recent new highs serving as just a 2007-style headfake?

Brown draws on the analysis of two others (one technical analyst and one fundamental) to argue that we nedd one more significat drop before the secular bear market that started in 2000 can convert to the next secular bull market. He says we need something like the 27% decline 1980-82 ehich marked the final bottom of the last secular bear before this one.

Click on charts for larger image at The Reformed Broker.
bear-secular-compare-Josh-Brown-2014-jan-13-600px


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