econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 12 December 2017

December 11, 2017 Weather and Climate Report - Possible Pattern Change

Written by Sig Silber

Is it good forecasting or Hopium? It is too soon to tell or even assess what the impacts might be. But we discuss the topic in a lot of detail and also take a look at the temperature and precipitation results from November. I started working on this article late last week when NOAA was focusing on possible fluctuations in the "Wave Number". As of today (Monday) it looks like the Pattern Change they were seeing in the model results was perhaps less dramatic than they thought late last week.  But the Hawaiian High is returning to where it belongs and the Northern Tier is now forecast to be cooler and wetter than in recent forecasts. 

Patttern Change

In addition, it looks like the MJO is more persistent than usual. Also Week 2 of the NOAA 6 - 14 Day forecast talks about a more amplified pattern of Highs and Lows so I am not sure that we have heard the last of this. Read on for more of my thinking on this topic and our regular analysis of the upcoming twenty-five days.


Please share this article - Go to very top of page, right hand side for social media buttons.


Some housekeeping: On Saturday November 18, 2018 we published our monthly Seasonal Outlook Update and you can access that here. Also on Friday December 2 we published the December Update and you can access it here. Remember if you leave this page to go to links or if you have clicked to enlarge a graphic, in order to get back you need to hit the return arrow usually located on the left of your URL box on the upper left of the screen. If you have additional suggestions for improvement, please make them in the comments section following the article.

Houston December 7 Snowfall.

Decemer 7, 2017 Houston Snowfall

Now let us talk blocks

Rex Block Omega Block
Rex Block Haby Omega Block
A Rex Block moves the storm track from a higher latitude to a lower latitude while delaying its movement to the east An Omega Block protects part of CONUS from the storm track and also slows down the progression from west to east.

 

Source Haby Hints

And here is the Day 3 forecast (it will update by the time you see it)

Day 3 highs and lows

And the question is do we see a Rex Block here? I am not clearly seeing it. I am looking for a High further north than a Low redirecting the storm track from high latitudes to lower latitudes. What I do see is the Aleutian Low directing storms over the Western Ridge and the small Central Low pulling colder air  down into New Mexico and you see that orange dashed frontal  boundary shown. That apparently is the Baja Low that is part of the Rex Block.

Let's take a more current look  rather than the Day 3 Forecast.

6 hr forecast.

Again what we see is just that orange dashed line near the Sea of Cortez  which might be showing an inverted trough or an outflow boundary but apparently is what is being described as the cut-off Low that is part of the Rex Block.

This is from the Sunday Phoenix Arizona NWS Discussion.

Well established Rex blocking covers the western conus this afternoon as sfc pressure rises continue to be favored over the Great Basin in association with the highly amplified ridge axis. The cutoff low portion of the blocking configuration approaching the baja was not only pumping copious amounts of high clouds into the region, but also supporting low pressure over the Gulf of California and a tighter than usual pressure gradient through the County Warning Area. … The Rex block will mostly stay intact through the first half of the week with the low pressure circulation migrating northward into Sonora as early as Monday … High pressure to the north will shift southward by Tuesday, pushing what moisture does make its way into southern Arizona back into Mexico for the remainder of the week.

And today (Monday) from the Albuquerque NM NWS Discussion.

a Rex block (high north of low) remains in place over the western conus today, and this setup should hold through Tuesday before evolving some into Wednesday. ..On Tuesday, little movement with the upper high over Nevada is expected, perhaps just a slight nudge westward while the low stays intact over the baja. ..Into Tuesday night and Wednesday, the Nevada high moves westward and offshore of California while the baja low compensates by moving inland over the Sonora desert of old Mexico/AZ. Meanwhile the northwesterly flow over the Great Plains and the northern rockies will start to sag toward nm.

And from Phoenix, AZ

as expected, a stubborn Rex block maintains its hold on the region this afternoon with the southern stream cutoff low portion of this pattern providing the most impact locally (and only minimal at that). ..The blocking pattern will persist through the middle of the week before a fast moving shortwave digs through the central rockies

Nothing of great interest from the Salt Lake City UT or Seattle WA NWS discussions.

Conclusion

The Rex Block is real but it impacts mostly Southern California, Arizona, New Mexico and Northern Mexico.

But it could lead to record or near record temperatures in parts of Arizona.

Record highs for December 12th:

Phoenix: 79 in 2010

Yuma: 85 in 1958 and 1950

 

Possible Pattern Change.

The  pattern  has been changing that is for sure.

60 Days Atmospheric Anomalies December 11, 2017

The red is higher than usual near-surface (925-hPa) atmospheric pressure which is associated with above average temperatures and the reverse shown in blue. So one can see that there have been dramatic changes in the pattern but you can not tell from this graphic which shows the recent history to what the next 30 days may hold in store for us.

From the Friday NOAA Discussion (no discussion with the weekend releases of the 6 - 14 Day forecast) 

THE AMPLIFIED WAVE-NUMBER 5 PATTERN THAT WAS CLEARLY INDICATED  BY MOST MODELS EARLIER THIS WEEK ACROSS THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE HAS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED, AND SEEMS TO BE TRANSITIONING TOWARD A WAVE-NUMBER 3 OR 4 PATTERN, FAVORING AN UPCOMING PATTERN CHANGE.

But now on Monday no mention of wave numbers or major pattern shifts. All we get is.

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, MODELS DEPICT A TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER ALASKA AND OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS... FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO PREDICTED PATTERN AMPLIFICATION OFFSET BY LARGE DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. 

So it looks like NOAA either got excited about nothing or perhaps they were premature and we will revisit this topic in a few weeks. Thus I decided to include the discussion I prepared on Friday and Saturday.

What does (would) it mean? Wave number is the number of repetitions around the Globe of major meanders from pole to equator sometimes called Planetary Waves or Rossby Waves. The number ranges from 2 to 6 with 3 or 4 being more  usual. Wave Number 5 indicates more amplification of the swings. Wavenumber 3 or 4 is more usual. How you get from one Wave number to a different wave number is tricky. To go to a higher wave number a major ridge or trough might split. To go in the opposite direction I think two waves have to merge or phase.
My best interpretation right  now is that all that is happening is the MJO is passing through and with Wavenumber 5 the Hawaiian High has been pushed on shore over the Rockies. If we go back to Zonal Wave Number 3 or 4 that High can move offshore and resume being the Hawaiian High. This retrogression will result in a pattern that is not shifted as far to the East as it  has been. That shift might explain the snow in the South. The Arctic Oscillation is tied in with this and there is just too much for me to sort out but the newer discussions from NOAA will either explicitly or implicitly take any change in pattern into account. Basically Wave Number  3 or 4 should provide lower probabilities of extreme weather but may have other issues. It is complex and I am sure that NOAA will explain it to us if we need to know in their analyses during the week as the situation becomes clearer.
This link for the very intrepid might explain the interest in high zonal wave numbers even though it does not apply to our current situation.

In theory we should be able to count the number of Rossby/Planetary Waves in the below graphic.

Short-term BOM Forecast

I  will let everyone do their own counting. I think you can count the Highs or count the Lows. Right now, Monday evening, what I see is the Aleutian Low extending quite far south and what should be the Hawaiian High pushed on shore. I think the forecast is for the Aleutian low to withdraw to the north and allow the Inland High/Ridge to move offshore. It probably will be replaced by another Inland High but not extending as far east. I am just guessing after cheating and looking at the Day 7 forecasts. It is interesting to watch this unfold but you only get to do that if you look at my report frequently as the graphics update.
It is now Monday evening. And as you see below either the discussion of the Pattern Change late last week was over-excited or NOAA has lost interest in it to the point that the changes it is reporting are in the category of normally changes from day to day and week to week rather than a major change in the overall pattern that would be indicated by the Wave Number first going to 5 and then returning to 3 or 4.

 From Sunday's Albuquerque NM NWS Discussion,

Extended guidance is still hinting the northwest flow pattern will begin buckling and force a series of weak upper waves through the southern rockies starting next weekend. This may eventually lead to a much needed pattern change around Dec 20th.Extended guidance is still hinting the northwest flow pattern will begin buckling and force a series of weak upper waves through the southern rockies starting next weekend. This may eventually lead to a much needed pattern change around Dec 20th.

From Sunday's Phoenix Arizona NWS Discussion

The strong upper level ridge will exert more influence on the region through the rest of the week with very dry northerly flow returning. For now, models are not showing any backdoor cold fronts originating in The Rockies, so temperatures will remain quite mild for December with forecast highs in the middle 70s over the lower elevation desert communities. Some model output does show some sort of a trough moving into (or near) the region from the northwest as early as Friday night, but operational and ensemble members are hardly unanimous in this forecast resulting in little confidence of this outcome.

When you  are trying to understand what is going on you generally get the same story from any NWS Discussion from anywhere in CONUS. I just happen to read the Albuquerque, Phoenix, Salt Lake City and Fairbanks Alaska reports daily. I can't read them all. I read those because I live in N.M. and most CONUS weather starts in the  Pacific. When appropriate I read the reports from other local NWS offices. The 6 - 14 Day weekend maps do not come with a discussion. I am sure I could find a discussion that covers all of CONUS but I don't focus on that over the weekend. I do on Monday when that discussion is released with the 6 - 14 Day maps. All the meteorologists have access to all the computer model runs. They  do not all interpret them exactly the same way mostly because when the models do not agree the forecasters have to use their judgement as to how to interpret model results that disagree. So I am to the extent I introduce my thoughts trying to sort through the different perspectives I get from discussions and maps. Right now the models are signaling change but that change is not yet very clear. And it may not change at all.

November's Temperature and precipitation

It has been warm. (You can click on these images to enlarge them)

Temperature Precipitation

November 2017 State Average Temperature Historical Rankings.

November Precipitation Ranking Historically

Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico set all time highs covering 123 years. Eight states ranked 11 or below as the driest year out of the 123 in modern history. Low ranking mean low  precipitation as this graphic is drawn

 

A. Now we return to our  regular approach and focus on Alaska and CONUS (all U.S.. except Hawaii) 

I am starting with a summary first for temperature and then for precipitation of small images of the three short-term maps. You can click on these maps to see larger versions. The easiest way to return to this report is by using the "Back Arrow" usually found top left corner of your screen to the left of the URL Box. Larger maps are available later in the article with the discussion and analysis.

For most people, the summary with the small images will be sufficient. Later in the article for those with sufficient interest there is a full description of the factors determining the maps shown here with a detailed analysis of the ENSO situation which so dramatically impacts the forecasts below.

First Temperature

6 - 10 Day Forecast Temperature

Transitioning from the 6 to 10 day outlook on the left to the 8 to 14 day outlook on the right         →

8 - 14 Day Temperature

A fairly static pattern. But the latest information (Pattern Change") is that the Northern Tier  will be more like JAMSTEC predicted.

To the right is the week 3 and 4 Forecast.

There are now two warm anomalies and a Northeast cool  anomaly. →

3 - 4 Week Temperature

                     ↑

←  The transition from the 8 -14 day forecast shown above to the week 3/4 shown to the left seems feasible.
 

 

And then Precipitation

6 - 10 Day Forecast Precipitation

Transitioning from the 6 to 10 day outlook on the left to the 8 to 14 day outlook on the right.         →

8 - 14 Day Precipitation

Very slow zonal shift to the east. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico enters CONUS in the Southeast due to Bermuda High.

To the right is the week 3 and 4 Experimental Forecast.          →

Notice the two Northern Tier wet anomalies and the Alaska and Southern Tier dry anomaly or two anomalies depending on how one looks at it.

3 - 4 Week Precipitation

                     ↑

←  The transition from the 8 -14 day forecast shown above to the week 3/4 shown to the left seems feasible.

 

Let us focus on the Current (Right Now to 5 Days Out) Weather Situation.

Water Vapor.

This view of the past 24 hours provides a lot of insight as to what is happening.

Eastern Pacific Animation

You can see the blocking ridge in action. Remember this is an animation of what has happened not a forecast. 

Below is the same graphic as above but without the animation to show the current situation with respect to water vapor imagery for North America. It also covers more of CONUS.

Water Vapor Imagery

Tonight, Monday evening December 11, 2017, as I am looking at the above graphic, you see really the split in the Polar Jet stream moving in moisture in the Northern Tier and Mexico.

This graphic is about Atmospheric Rivers i.e. thick concentrated movements of water moisture. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here. The idea is that we have now concluded that moisture often moves via narrow but deep channels in the atmosphere (especially when the source of the moisture is over water) rather than being very spread out. This raises the potential for extreme precipitation events. You can convert this graphic into a flexible forecasting tool by clicking here. One can obtain views of different geographical areas by clicking here.

 Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps/UCSD.

There is not much moisture entering CONUS

Day One CONUS Forecast

Day Two CONUS Forecast

Day 1 Forecast Map

Day 2 Forecast

There is High Pressure over the West. And precipitation in the Northeast.

These graphics update and can be clicked on to enlarge but my brief comments are only applicable to what I see on Monday night prior to publishing.

60 Hour Forecast Animation

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below. The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color coding.

current highs and lows

You can enlarge the below daily (days 3 - 7) weather maps for CONUS by clicking on Day 3 or Day 4 or Day 5 or Day 6 or Day 7. These maps auto-update so whenever you click on them they will be forecast maps for the number of days in the future shown.

Short term forecasts

What is Behind the Forecasts? Let us try to understand what NOAA is looking at when they issue these forecasts.

Below is a graphic which highlights the forecasted surface Highs and the Lows re air pressure on Day 7. The Day 3 forecast can be found here. the Day 6 Forecast can be found here. Actually all the small graphics below can be clicked on to enlarge them.

Day 7 Highs and Lows

When I look at this Day 7 forecast, there is a Low centered on Anchorage Alaska with surface central pressure of 1000 hPa. The Low is elongated and extends into the Central portion of CONUS. Further to the west there is a strong Low just east of Kamchatka with surface central pressure of 972 hPa. There is a very strong High extending from near the Dateline to the Rocky Mountains with (scratch that as it was Sunday's forecasts: three centers of surface central pressure of 1032 hPa, 1028 hPa and 1024 hPa looking from west to east. Is this a combining of Highs or a splitting of Highs which gets back to the Wave Number questions.) surface central pressure of 1032 hPa.  Looking at this graphic it would seem that any significant precipitation would be directed north of CONUS. At the top of the Graphic in the center there is a High with central surface air pressure of 1028 hPa. It has been high for weeks or longer but appears to be moderating. It is near the North Pole and may be related to the negative Arctic Oscillation (AO).

I provided this K - 12 write up that provides a simple explanation on the importance of semipermanent Highs and Lows and another link that discussed possible changes in the patterns of these highs and lows which could be related to a Climate Shift (cycle) in the Pacific or Global Warming. Remember this is a forecast for Day 6. It is not the current situation.

The table below showing the Day 3, Day 4, Day 5, Day 6 and Day 7 of this graphic can be useful in thinking about how the pattern of Highs and Lows is expect to move during the week.

Day 3 Day 4
Day 5 Day 6

From left to right and then down, Days 3 and 4 top row, Days 5 and 6 second row and Day 7 to the right. These are small images but you can if you want click on them and get larger images but even with the small images you can trace the evolution of the pattern. The graphics update but my commentary below does not so it is just a guide for how to read these graphics.

Day 7

We see a retrogression of the Great Basin High to be mostly offshore where it normally is this time of the year. But  you still see these features having more latitudinal extension then one would normally expect. Of most interest is the pattern over the northern tier of CONUS and Western Canada.      

Things to look for are the position and strength of the Aleutian Low, the Hawaiian High and any troughs especially if they extend far to the south and are over water.

Looking at the current activity of the Jet Stream.  The below graphics and the above graphics are very related.

Not all weather is controlled by the Jet Stream (which is a high altitude phenomenon) but it does play a major role in steering storm systems especially in the winter The sub-Jet Stream level intensity winds shown by the vectors in this graphic are also very important in understanding the impacts north and south of the Jet Stream which is the higher-speed part of the wind circulation and is shown in gray on this map. In some cases however a Low-Pressure System becomes separated or "cut off" from the Jet Stream. In that case it's movements may be more difficult to predict until that disturbance is again recaptured by the Jet Stream. This usually is more significant for the lower half of CONUS with the cutoff lows being further south than the Jet Stream. Some basic information on how to interpret the impact of jet streams on weather can be found here and here.  I have not provided the ability to click to get larger images as I believe the smaller  images shown are easy to read.

Current Day 5
Current Jet Stream Jet Stream Five Days Out
You can see the split Jet Stream. On Day 5 there seems to be less meridional movement and more consolidation of the Jet Stream.

Putting the Jet Stream into Motion and Looking Forward a Few Days Also

To see how the pattern is projected to evolve, please click here. In addition to the shaded areas which show an interpretation of the Jet Stream, one can also see the wind vectors (arrows) at the 300 Mb level.

This longer animation shows how the jet stream is crossing the Pacific and when it reaches the U.S. West Coast is going every which way.

When we discuss the jet stream and for other reasons, we often discuss different layers of the atmosphere. These are expressed in terms of the atmospheric pressure above that layer. It is kind of counter-intuitive to me. The below table may help the reader translate air pressure to the usual altitude and temperature one might expect at that level of air pressure. It is just an approximation but useful.

air pressure and altitude

Re the above, H8 is a frequently used abbreviation for the height of the 850 millibar level (which is intended to represent the atmosphere above the Boundary Layer most impacted by surface conditions), H7 is the 700 mb level, H5 is the 500 mb level, H3 is the 300 mb level. So if you see those abbreviations in a weather forecast you will know what they are talking about.

Click here to gain access to a very flexible computer graphic. You can adjust what is being displayed by clicking on "earth" adjusting the parameters and then clicking again on "earth" to remove the menu. Right now it is set up to show the 500 hPa wind patterns which is the main way of looking at synoptic weather patterns. This amazing graphic covers North and South America. It could be included in the Worldwide weather forecast section of this report but it is useful here re understanding the wind circulation patterns.

500 MB Mid-Atmosphere View

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 7-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients. This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA's latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Because "Thickness Lines" are shown by those green lines on this graphic, it is a good place to define "Thickness" and its uses. The 540 Level generally signifies equal chances for snow at sea level locations. Thickness of 600 or more suggests very intensely heat and fire danger. Sometimes Meteorologists work with the 500 mb heights which provide somewhat similar readings to the "Thickness" lines but IMO provide slightly less specific information. Thinking about clockwise movements around High Pressure Systems and counter- clockwise movements around Low Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.

7 Day 500 MB Geopotential Forecast

What we see for Day 7 is a Central CONUS trough with West Coast and East Coast ridges.

Here is the seven-day cumulative precipitation forecast. More information is available here.

Seven Day WPC Quantitative precipitation forecast

We see very little QPF for CONUS. Looks like the pattern may shift south enough for Washington State to get some precipitation.

Four- Week Outlook: Looking Beyond Days 1 to 5, What is the Forecast for the Following Three + Weeks?

I use "EC" in my discussions although NOAA sometimes uses "EC" (Equal Chances) and sometimes uses "N" (Normal) to pretty much indicate the same thing although "N" may be more definitive.

First - Temperature

6 - 10 Day Temperature Outlook issued today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on December 11, 2017 was 3 out of 5

6 - 10 Day Temperature Outlook

8 - 14 Day Temperature Outlook issued today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on December 11, 2017 was 3 out of 5).

8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

Looking further out.

Experimental Week 3-4 Temperature Outlook

Now - Precipitation

6 - 10 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued Today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on December 11 was 3 out of 5)

6 - 10 Day Precipitation Outlook

8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook Issued Today (Note the NOAA Level of Confidence in the Forecast Released on December 11, 2017 was 3 out of 5)

Current 8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

Looking further out.

Weeks 3 and 4 Experimental Forecast..

Here is the 6 - 14 Day NOAA discussion released today December 11, 2017 and the Week 3/4 discussion released Friday December 8, 2017

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 17 - 21 2017  

TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS GENERALLY DEPICT A LOW TO MODERATELY AMPLIFIED 500-HPA PATTERN OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN REFLECTIVE OF A POTENTIAL PERIOD OF TRANSITION. IN THE MEAN, BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS INDICATED OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROUGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA.  A WEAK RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO CENTRAL MAINLAND ALASKA. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH,  RIDGING IS FORECAST NEAR CUBA AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS RIDGE EXTEND NORTHWARD TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. ENSEMBLE SPREAD IS HIGH OVER THE WESTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH POTENTIAL TROUGH DEVELOPMENT OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST NEAR THE END OF THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS BASED PRIMARILY ON THE ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM THE CANADIAN, GEFS, AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS.  

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CONUS (PARTICULARLY EARLY IN THE PERIOD) CORRESPONDING TO AN EXPECTED MEAN LOW AMPLITUDE FLOW PATTERN AND ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. CYCLONIC FLOW AND BELOW NORMAL  HEIGHTS LEAD TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST. THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER MAINLAND ALASKA INCREASES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN ALASKA. 

 ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH EXPECTED OVER THE BERING SEA. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS FROM THE PLAINS WESTWARD UNDERNEATH ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS. CYCLONIC FLOW LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THE POTENTIAL FOR MOIST RETURN FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE HIGH LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES UNDERNEATH FAST WESTERLY FLOW. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR MODEL AGREEMENT.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR DEC 19 - 25 2017 

DURING THE WEEK TWO PERIOD, MODELS DEPICT A TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN AS A RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER ALASKA AND OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE CONUS.  DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE, A TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY OVER EAST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN RISING HEIGHTS OVER ALASKA AND FALLING HEIGHTS OVER MUCH OF THE CONUS (PARTICULARLY FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS). MODELS DISAGREE ON HOW DEEP THE TROUGH OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA WILL BE AS THE GEFS MAINTAINS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WHILE THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS LOWER HEIGHTS TO NEAR NORMAL THERE. THE WEEK TWO MANUAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND REPRESENTS A COMPROMISE OF THE CANADIAN, ECMWF, AND GEFS ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS.  

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY FOR ALASKA AS A RIDGE AMPLIFIES OVER THE STATE. NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CONUS AS A TROUGH BUILDS OVER EAST-CENTRAL NORTH AMERICA. CATEGORICAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS WERE GENERALLY SHIFTED COLDER RELATIVE TO AUTOMATED GUIDANCE AS TELECONNECTIONS FROM THE RIDGE  CENTERED NEAR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE AND THE TROUGH CENTERED OVER EAST-CENTRAL CANADA BOTH SUPPORT COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN CONUS. ELSEWHERE, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS UNDERNEATH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS.    

MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA. DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS DUE TO THE RIDGE EXPECTED OFF THE COAST. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS SLIGHTLY FAVORED FOR PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, GULF COAST, AND SOUTHEAST NEAR THE BASE OF THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER EAST-CENTRAL  NORTH AMERICA. MEAN SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LEADS TO FAVORED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GEFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS SUPPORT ELEVATED CHANCES FOR NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO PREDICTED PATTERN AMPLIFICATION OFFSET BY LARGE DISAGREEMENTS BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK ACROSS MUCH OF THE CONUS. 

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON DECEMBER 21.

Week 3-4 Forecast Discussion Valid Sat Dec 23 2017-Fri Jan 05 2018

La Nina conditions currently are present across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are below average across the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. The CPC velocity potential based and RMM MJO indices indicate an enhanced MJO signal from the Maritime Continent to the Western Pacific. Forecasts of the RMM-based MJO indices show a decrease in amplitude as the signal shifts eastward across Phase 6 and Phase 7 pattern (Western Pacific) over the next two weeks. The Week 3/4 temperature and precipitation outlooks rely primarily on dynamical model forecasts from the NCEP CFS, ECMWF and JMA operational ensemble prediction systems, as well as forecasts from the Subseasonal Experiment (SubX), a multi-model ensemble (MME) of experimental ensemble prediction systems. Consideration is also given to the possible evolution of the predicted circulation pattern for Week 2.

The various model guidance supporting the Week 3-4 outlook is in good agreement today, depicting troughs across the east-central Pacific to the Hawaiian Archipelago, and over the eastern CONUS, while a ridge is indicated over Alaska and near the west coast of North America. The CFS, ECMWF and JMA ensemble means depict above-normal 500-hPa heights over Alaska and the southeastern CONUS, while near to below-normal 500-hPa heights are indicated over most of the northern and western parts of the CONUS.

The forecast temperature pattern for Weeks 3-4 incorporates the objective blend of the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA model forecasts, as well as statistical guidance primarily from the multiple regression tool that leverages trends along with current ENSO and MJO conditions. Calibrated temperature forecasts from the individual models and multi-model combinations of these forecasts support an enhanced likelihood of above-normal temperatures over most of the western and southern CONUS, with the highest probabilities over Arizona and New Mexico. The predict trough and below-normal 500-hPa heights enhance the odds for near to below normal temperatures for much of the northeastern CONUS. The various forecast guidance was in very good agreement over Alaska, where there is a greater than 70 percent chance of above-normal temperatures for western parts of the state.

The precipitation outlook is likewise based on the objective dynamical guidance, which is broadly consistent with the forecast circulation pattern and, to lesser extent, the low-frequency La Nina footprint. The various guidance is in fairly good agreement on the precipitation outlook. Near to below-normal 500-hPa heights lead to increased odds for below-normal precipitation over parts of the Southwest, the Southern Rockies, the Southern Plains, and the Southeast. There is a slight tilt toward above-normal precipitation centered over Montana, where upslope precipitation may become more frequent as surface high pressure noses southward over the High Plains. The forecast trough over the eastern CONUS favors above-normal precipitation over parts of the Great Lakes, the Northeast, the Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley, and the Middle Atlantic. Below-normal precipitation is forecast over Alaska, consistent with dynamical model precipitation guidance from the CFS, ECMWF, and JMA.

The temperature forecast for Hawaii remains a bit uncertain with the CFS and ECMWF depicting very weak signed anomalies during the period. Dynamical model from CFS and JMA precipitation forecasts indicate increased probabilities of above-normal precipitation for Kahului and Honolulu during the Week 3-4 period.

Some might find this analysis which you need to click to read interesting as the organization which prepares it focuses on the Pacific Ocean and looks at things from a very detailed perspective and their analysis provides a lot of information on the history and evolution of ENSO events.

Analogs to the Outlook.

Now let us take a detailed look at the "Analogs" which NOAA provides related to the 5 day period centered on 3 days ago and the 7 day period centered on 4 days ago. "Analog" means that the weather pattern then resembles the recent weather pattern and was used in some way to predict the 6 - 14 day Outlook.

Here are today's analogs in chronological order although this information is also available with the analog dates listed by the level of correlation. I find the chronological order easier for me to work with. There is a second set of analogs associated with the Outlook but I have not been regularly analyzing this second set of information. The first set which is what I am using today applies to the 5 and 7 day observed pattern prior to today. The second set, which I am not using, relates to the correlation of the forecasted outlook 6 - 10 days out with similar patterns that have occurred in the past during the dates covered by the 6 - 10 Day Outlook. The second set of analogs may also be useful information but they put the first set of analogs in the discussion with the second set available by a link so I am assuming that the first set of analogs is the most meaningful and I find it so.

Centered

Day

ENSO

Phase

PDO AMO

Other Comments

Nov 27, 1956 (2) Neutral - - After a powerful La Nina
Dec 22, 1960 Neutral +(t) +  
Dec 24, 1960 Neutral +(t) +  
Dec 11, 1962 Neutral - +  
Dec 1, 1963 El Nino - - Modoki Type I
Dec 18, 1985 Neutral + -  
Dec 19, 1985 Neutral + -  
Nov 25, 2002 El Nino + + Modoki Type I
Nov 28, 2002 El Nino + + Modoki Type I

(t) = a month where the Ocean Cycle Index has just changed or does change the following month.

The spread among the analogs from November 25 to December 24 is 30 days which is just a bit shorter than last week. I have not calculated the centroid of this distribution which would be the better way to look at things but the midpoint, which is a lot easier to calculate, is about December 9. These analogs are centered on 3 days and 4 days ago (December 8 or December 9). So the analogs could be considered to be totally in sync with respect to weather that we would normally be getting right now. For more information on Analogs see discussion in the GEI Weather Page Glossary.

Including the duplicates, there are seven Neutral Analogs, zero La Nina analogs and three El Nino Analogs. The phases of the analogs are all over the place  with respect to the PDO and AMO. The analogs themselves are very similar to last Monday. So we are talking about the conditions that determine the weather for the next couple of weeks being very similar to what they were last Monday. This shows up in the dates of the Analogs.

The seminal work on the impact of the PDO and AMO on U.S. climate can be found here. Water Planners might usefully pay attention to the low-frequency cycles such as the AMO and the PDO as the media tends to focus on the current and short-term forecasts to the exclusion of what we can reasonably anticipate over multi-decadal periods of time. One of the major reasons that I write this weather and climate column is to encourage a more long-term and World view of weather.

In color Black and White same graphics
McCabe Maps modified to include the subtitles McCabe Conditions from 2007 report with labels corrected with authors permission

 

McCabe Condition Main Characteristics
A Very Little Drought. Southern Tier and Northern Tier from Dakotas East Wet. Some drought on East Coast.
B More wet than dry but Great Plains and Northeast are dry.
C Northern Tier and Mid-Atlantic Drought
D Southwest Drought extending to the North and also the Great Lakes. This is the most drought-prone combination of Ocean Phases.

You may have to squint but the drought probabilities are shown on the map and also indicated by the color coding with shades of red indicating higher than 25% of the years are drought years (25% or less of average precipitation for that area) and shades of blue indicating less than 25% of the years are drought years. Thus drought is defined as the condition that occurs 25% of the time and this ties in nicely with each of the four pairs of two phases of the AMO and PDO.

Historical Anomaly Analysis

When I see the same dates showing up often I find it interesting to consult this list.

Recent CONUS Weather

This is provided mainly to see the pattern in the weather that has occurred recently.

And the 30 Days ending Decemer 2, 2017 And the 30 Days ending December 9, 2017

December 2, 2017 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

December 11, 2017 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures
It keeps on getting drier. The Northern Cool Anomaly has washed out but the Southwest Warm Anomaly is thriving. Not much change re precipitation. The warm anomaly rotated just a bit moving away from the Southeast as bit and extending to the north a bit more.
Remember, these maps are a 30 average so the most distant seven days are removed and the most recent seven days are added.

Temperature Rankings Historically By State (Note that Utah, Colorado, Arizona and New Mexico had the warmest November in the 123 years of modern records. What are the odds of four neighboring states all having record for the month average temperatures?)

November 2017 State Average Temperature Historical Rankings.

Precipitation Rankings Historically by State (Notice that eight states had a ranking of 11 or less re the amount of precipitation for November compared to 123  years of data.)

November Precipitation Ranking Historically

Looking Out Beyond Three Months

On Saturday November 18, 2018 we published our monthly Seasonal Outlook Update and you can access that here. Also on Friday December 2 we published the December Update and you can access it here. There will be a new Seasonal Outlook issued by NOAA on December 21 which we will report on December 23.

Reference Forecasts Full Month and Three Months.

Below are the Temperature followed by the Precipitation Outlooks for the month and three months shown in the Legend. These map are issued on the Third Thursday of the Month. The maps for the following month (but not the three-month maps) are updated on the last day of the month. The 6 - 10 day and 8 - 14 Day update daily and the Week 3/4 Map Updates every Friday so usually these are more up to date. Also the three shorter-term maps will generally cover a slightly different time period since they update daily as the month progresses. But these reference maps are sometimes useful if one wants to understand how the current month was originally forecast to play out.

 
December Temperature Outlook Update on November 16, 2017 To the left is the full month Temperature Outlook. To the right is the three-month Temperature outlook DJF Temperature  Issued on November 16,2017
December 2017 Precipitation Outlook Updated on December, 2017 To the left is the full month Precipitation outlook. To the right is the three-month Precipitation outlook. DJF 2017-2018 Precipitation Outlook Issued on November 16,  2017

B. Beyond Alaska and CONUS Let's Look at the World which of Course also includes Alaska and CONUS

It is Useful to Understand the Semipermanent Pattern that Control our Weather and Consider how These Change from Winter to Summer. These two graphics (click on each one to enlarge) are from a much larger set available from the Weather Channel.  They highlight the position of the Bermuda High which they are calling the Azores High in the January graphic and is often called NASH and it has a very big impact on CONUS Southeast weather and also the Southwest. You also see the north/south migration of the Pacific High which also has many names and which is extremely important for CONUS weather and it also shows the change of location of the ITCZ which I think is key to understanding the Indian Monsoon. A lot of things become much clearer when you understand these semi-permanent features some of which have cycles within the year, longer period cycles and may be impacted by Global Warming. We are now moving into mid-December and are almost to the set of positions shown above for January. For CONUS, the seasonal repositioning of the Bermuda High and the Pacific High are very significant. Notice the Winter position of the Pacific High. Right now it is not in the January Position or close to it. But it may be shifting into that position according to the forecast.

Same as above but for July

 

Forecast for Today (you can click on the maps to enlarge them)
 

This graphic is anomalies i.e. deviations from normal not the actual temperatures. This graphic is actuals not anomalies as is the case in the temperature map.
Temperature at 2 Meters Maine Reanalyer
Notice that below the map there is a tabulation of magnitude of the current anomalies by region. Overall it is We again see the dry anomaly stretching from North Africa to Northeastern China but it is not as intense as recently.

Additional Maps showing different weather variables can be found here.

Forecast for Day 6 (Currently Set for Day 6 but the reader can change that)

World Weather Forecast produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Unfortunately I do not know how to extract the control panel and embed it into my report so that you could use the tool within my report. But if you visit it Click Here and you will be able to use the tool to view temperature or many other things for THE WORLD. It can forecast out for a week. Pretty cool. Return to this report by using the "Back Arrow" usually found top left corner of your screen to the left of the URL Box. It may require hitting it a few times depending on how deep you are into the BOM tool. Below are the current worldwide precipitation and temperature forecasts for six days out. They will auto-update and be current for Day 6 whenever you view them. If you want the forecast for a different day Click Here

Temperature

Precipitation

BOM Current Temperature Wedensday

BOM World Preciptation  Wednesday

Please remember this graphic updates every six hours so the diurnal pattern can confuse the reader. As we discussed earlier looking at the Day 1 forecast it is interesting to try to figure how what the Zone Wave Number is in this graphic.

And now we have experimental forecasts from the U.S. NAEFS Model.

Temperature Precipitation

NAEFS 8 - 14 Day Temperature

NAEFS Experimental World Precipitation

Perhaps we see the cool CONUS Northeast You definitely see the La Nina pattern for North America.

Looking Out a Few Months

Here is the precipitation forecast from Queensland Australia:

Consistently positive SOI  forecast for January to Febrruary 2017.- 2018

It is kind of amazing that you can make a worldwide forecast based on just one parameter the SOI and changes in the SOI. Notice the continuance of the underlying driver of the SOI having been consistently positive. CONUS now looks like a north south typical La Nina divide with the northern tier wet. Northwest South America is wet. Southern Africa is wet. Eastern Australia is wet.

JAMSTEC Forecasts

One can always find the latest JAMSTEC maps by clicking this link. You will find additional maps that I do not general cover in my monthly Update Report. Remember if you leave this page to visit links provided in this article, you can return by hitting your "Back Arrow", usually top left corner of your screen just to the left of the URL box.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Departures from Normal for this Time of the Year i.e. Anomalies

My focus here is sea surface temperature anomalies as they are one of the two largest factors determining weather around the World. If we want to have a good feel for future weather we need to look at the oceans as our weather mostly comes from oceans and we need to look at

  • Surface temperature anomalies (weather develops from the ocean surface  and
  • the changes in the temperature anomalies since that may provide clues as to how the surface anomalies will change based on the current trend of changes. This is not that easy to do since the oceans are deep, there are many currents, winds have an impact etc. Two ways that are available to use are to look at the change in the situation today compared ot the average over a period of time and NOAA also produces a graphic of monthly changes. I use both. The first set of graphics is simply looking at the average compared to today and that is below.
Three Month Average Anomaly Current Anomaly
Three month average anomaly Daily SST Anomaly
La Nina shows up La Nina is more intense

And when we look in more detail at the current Sea Surface anomalies below, we see a lot of them not just along the Equator related to ENSO.

                              First the categorization of the SST anomalies.

Mediterranean, Black Sea and Caspian Sea Western Pacific West of North America North and East of North America North Atlantic
Fairly Neutral

Cool North of Japan and west of Kamchatka.

Warm off Baja and further north.

Cool south of Aleutians

Warm off East Coast and Gulf of Mexico

Warm north of Scandinavia,

Cool in Labrador Sea

Equator

Pacific cool east of Dateline. 

SST Daily Anomalies
Africa West of Australia North, South and East of Australia

West of South America

East of South America

Slightly warm west of North Africa.

Slightly cool Gulf of Guinea

Cool southeast of Africa south of  Madagascar

Cool off Namibia but away from the coast.

Mostly neutral near shore.

Very warm southeast all the way to New Zealand

Cool, cool, cool .

Cool east of 30S but minor.

 

Then we look at the change in the anomalies.  Here it gets a little tricky as for this graphic red does not mean a warm anomaly but a warming of the anomaly which could mean more warm or less cool and blue does not mean cool but more cool or less warm.

Mediterranean, Black Sea and Caspian Sea Western North Pacific West of North America East of North America North Atlantic

Mediterranean cooling.

Arabian Sea cooling.

Cooling to the west of Kamchatka and all around Japan

Cooling Bristol Bay i.e. north of Aleutians.

Cooling in a swath running NE to SW from the Alaskan Panhandle into the mid-Pacific.

.

.

Warming Great Lakes and Southern Hudson Bay

Cooling off Long Island

Warming Gulf of Mexico.

Cooling south of Greenland and northeast of British Isles.  .

Equator Eastern Pacific mixed. Cooling for Maritime Continent.
Change in weekly anomalies December 11, 2017
Africa West of Australia North, South and East of Australia West of South America East of South America

Warming west of Gulf of Guinea.

Cooling west of Africa further south

Cooling off Northwest mostly offshore.

Warming to the south

Band of cooling 15S extending beyond  Dateline.

More extreme band west of 30S to 40S

Cooling 20S to 50S and around Cape Horn

 

This may be a good time to show the recent values to the indices most commonly used to describe the overall spacial pattern of temperatures in the (Northern Hemisphere) Pacific and the (Northern Hemisphere) Atlantic and the Dipole Pattern in the Indian Ocean.

Most Recent Six Months of Index Values   PDO Click for full list

AMO click for full list.

Indian Ocean Dipole (Values read off graph)
October   -0.68 +0.39 -0.3
November   +0.84 +0.40 0.0
December   +0.55 +0.34 -0.1
January   +0.10 +0.23 0.0
February   +0.04 +0.23 +0.2
March   +0.12 +0.17 +0.0
April   +0.52 +0.29 +0.2
May   +0.30 +0.32 +0.2
June   +0.19 +0.31 0.0
July   -0.54 +0.31 0.0
August   -0.64 +0.31 +0.4
September   -0.26 +0.35 +0.2
October   -0.64 +0.44  0.0
November   -0.52 NA  0.0

Switching gears, below is an analysis of projected tropical hazards and benefits over an approximately two-week period.

Tropical Hazards

This graphic updates on Tuesdays and I post on Monday which is almost a week later than when this graphic was last updated. So Week Two applies at the time I write this article on Monday but by the time you read it on Tuesday, the Week Two that I am looking at is updated and becomes Week One. Mostly I see as I look at this on December 11 for what is shown as Week Two, the period December 13 to December 19, 2017, we see wet conditions* for parts of Brazil and also wet conditions* and possible* cyclonic development east of Mozambique and north of Madagascar, wet conditions* over part of the Maritime Continent but dry conditions** south of India and Indochina.  .

 * Moderate Confidence that the indicated anomaly will be in the upper or lower third of the historical range as indicated in the Legend. ** High Confidence that the indicated anomaly will be in the upper or lower third of the historical range as indicated in the Legend.

Tropical Activity Possibly Impacting CONUS.

Eastern Pacific Two Day Tropical Weather Outlook

When there is activity and I have not provided the specific links to the storm of "immediate" interest, one can obtain that information at this link. At this point in time, no (new) tropical events are expected to appear in this graphic during the next 48 hours. If that changes, we will provide an update.

Now let us look at the Western Pacific in Motion.

Western Pacific Tropical Activity

The above graphic which I believe covers the area from the Dateline west to 100E and from the Equator north to 45N normally shows the movement of tropical storms towards Asia in the lower latitudes (Trade Winds) and the return of storms towards CONUS in the mid-latitudes (Prevailing Westerlies). This is recent data not a forecast. But, it ties in with the Week 1 forecast in the graphic just above this graphic. Information on Western Pacific storms can be found by clicking here. This (click here to read) is an unofficial private source but one that is easy to read.

C. Progress of ENSO

A major driver of weather is Surface Ocean Temperatures. Evaporation only occurs from the Surface of Water. So we are very interested in the temperatures of water especially when these temperatures deviate from seasonal norms thus creating an anomaly. The geographical distribution of the anomalies is very important. To a substantial extent, the temperature anomalies along the Equator have disproportionate impact on weather so we study them intensely and that is what the ENSO (El Nino - Southern Oscillation) cycle is all about. Subsurface water can be thought of as the future surface temperatures. They may have only indirect impacts on current weather but they have major impacts on future weather by changing the temperature of the water surface. Winds and Convection (evaporation forming clouds) is weather and is a result of the Phases of ENSO and also a feedback loop that perpetuates the current Phase of ENSO or changes it. That is why we monitor winds and convection along or near the Equator especially the Equator in the Eastern Pacific.

Starting with Surface Conditions.

TAO/TRITON GRAPHIC (a good way of viewing data related to the part of the Equator and the waters close to the Equator in the Eastern Pacific where we monitor to determining the current phase of ENSO. It is probably not necessary in order to follow the discussion below, but here is a link to TAO/TRITON terminology.

And here is the current version of the TAO/TRITON Graphic. The top part shows the actual temperatures, the bottom part shows the anomalies i.e. the deviation from normal.

Current SST and wind anomalies

Location Bar for Nino 3.4 Area Above and Below

------------------------------------------------ A B C D E -----------------

 

The pattern now is very cold water to the south of the Equator with less cold water to the north of the Equator. That means a currently weak ENSO La Nina Phase.

The below table only looks at the Equator (and starting this week I am including large anomalies just off the Equator also) and shows the extent of anomalies along the Equator. The ONI Measurement Area is the 50 degrees of Longitude between 170W and 120W and extends 5 degrees of Latitude North and South of the Equator so the above table is just a guide and a way of tracking the changes. The top rows show El Nino anomalies. The two rows just below that break point contribute to ENSO Neutral.

Subareas of the Anomaly

Westward Extension

 

Eastward Extension

 

Degrees of Coverage Total by ENSO Phase

Total

Portion in Nino 3.4 Measurement Area

These Rows below show the Extent of El Nino Impact on the Equator  

1C to 1.5C (strong)

NA

NA

0

0

0

+0.5C to +1C (marginal)

NA

NA

0

0

These Rows Below Show the Extent of ENSO Neutral Impacts on the Equator  
0.5C or cooler Anomaly (warmish neutral)

165E

175E

10

0

20

0C or cooler Anomaly (coolish neutral)

175E

150W

25

20

These Rows Below Show the Extent of La Nina Impacts on the Equator.  
-0.5C or cooler Anomaly

150W

145W

5

5

30

-1.0C or cooler Anomaly

145W

125W

20

20

-1.5C or cooler Anomaly

125W

115W

10

5

-2.0C or cooler Anomaly

115W

105W

10

0

-2.5C or cooler Anomaly

105W

LAND

10

0

As measured along the Equator,  there is this week the same amount of Latitude that has values which are ENSO Neutral and ENSO La Nina.

 

My Calculation of the Nino 3.4 Index

I calculate the current value of the Nino 3.4 Index each Monday using a method that I have devised. To refine my calculation, I have divided the 170W to 120W Nino 3.4 measuring area into five subregions (which I have designated from west to east as A through E) with a location bar shown under the TAO/TRITON Graphic). I use a rough estimation approach to integrate what I see below and record that in the table I have constructed. Then I take the average of the anomalies I estimated for each of the five subregions.

So as of Monday December 11, in the afternoon working from the December 10 TAO/TRITON report [Although the TAO/TRITON Graphic appears to update once a day, in reality it updates more frequently.], this is what I calculated.

Calculation of Nino 3.4 from TAO/TRITON Graphic

Anomaly Segment Estimated Anomaly
  Last Week This Week
A. 170W to 160W 0.0 -0.2
B. 160W to 150W -0.1 -0.2
C. 150W to 140W -0.8 -0.5
D. 140W to 130W -1.1 -0.8
E. 130W to 120W -1.0 -1.1
Total -3.0 -2.8
Total divided by five i.e. the Daily Nino 3.4 Index (-3.0)/5 = -0.6 (-2.8)/5 = -0.6

My estimate of the daily Nino 3.4 SST anomaly tonight is -0.6 which is a weak ENSO La Nina value. NOAA has reported the weekly Nino 3.4 to be -0.8 which is La Nina value and a bit stronger than what I estimated. It is not a major difference. Nino 4 is reported slightly cooler at -0.3. Nino 3 is almost the same at -1.0. Nino 1 + 2 which extends from the Equator south rather than being centered on the Equator is reported cooler at -1.6. It was up there close to 3 at one time so this index has been declining quite a bit and also fluctuating quite a bit which is not surprising as it is the area most impacted by the Upwelling off the coast. So it is an indication of the interaction between surface water and rising cool water. Thus it is subject to larger changes. I am only showing the currently issued version of the NINO SST Index Table as the prior values are shown in the small graphics on the right with this graphic. The same data in table form but going back a couple of more years can be found here.

The cool anomaly pretty much  remained in the same locating this week and again records as La Nina.

December 11, 2017 Nino Readings

This is probably the best place to AGAIN express the thought that this way of measuring an ENSO event leaves a lot to be desired. Only the surface interacts with the atmosphere and is able to influence weather. The subsurface tells us how long the surface will remain cool (or warm). Anomalies are deviations from "Normal". NOAA calculates and determines what is "Normal" which changes due to long ocean cycles and Global Warming. So to some extent, the system is "rigged". Hopefully it is rigged to assist in providing improved weather forecasts. But to assume that any numbers reported can be assumed to be accurate to a high level of precision is foolhardy.

This overlaps with the next topic but I will show it here.

Equatorial (0 - 300) meter heat content As reported December 11, 2017

The discussion in this slide says it better than I could. One might compare the current reading to Oct/Nov 2016. We may be at Peak La Nina but it has now only a few months to run and we are starting our La Nina Demise Count Down.  But we are not yet ready to predict the end of La Nina readings.

Sea Surface Temperature and Anomalies

It is the ocean surface that interacts with the atmosphere and causes convection and also the warming and cooling of the atmosphere. So we are interested in the actual ocean surface temperatures and the departure from seasonal normal temperatures which is called "departures" or "anomalies". Since warm water facilitates evaporation which results in cloud convection, the pattern of SST anomalies suggests how the weather pattern east of the anomalies will be different than normal.

December 11, 2017 Equatorial Pacific SST Anomalies

A major advantage of the Hovmoeller method of displaying information is that it shows the history so I do not need to show a sequence of snapshots of the conditions at different points in time. This Hovmoeller provides a good way to visually see the evolution of this ENSO event. I have decided to use the prettied-up version that comes out on Mondays rather that the version that auto-updates daily because the SST Departures on the Equator do not change rapidly and the prettied-up version is so much easier to read. The bottom of the Hovmoeller shows the current readings. Remember the +5, -5 degree strip around the Equator that is being reported in this graphic. So it is the surface but not just the Equator.

Not much changed from last week. You can see where La Nina took a vacation but it was a short vacation.

This next graphic is more focused on the Equator and looks down to 300 meters rather than just being the surface.

December 11, 2017 Upper Ocean Heat Anoma

The bottom of the Hovmoeller shows the current situation.

The pattern this week is very similar to last week. A slight westward shift but the Nino readings do not confirm that.

Let us look in more detail at the Equatorial Water Temperatures.

We are now going to look at a three-dimensional view of the Equator and move from the surface view and an average of the subsurface heat content to a more detailed view from the surface down This graphic provides both a summary perspective and a history (small images on the right).

.December 11, 2017 Kelvin Wave Analysis.

Not much change from last week. The subsurface warm anomaly west of 165W might be slightly stronger.

Anomalies are strange. You can not really tell for sure if the blue area is colder or warmer than the water above or below. All you know is that it is cooler than usual for this time of the year. A later graphic will provide more information. Aside from buoyancy the currents tend to bring water from that depth up to the surface mostly farther east.

Now for a more detailed look. Below is the pair of graphics that I regularly provide. The date shown is the midpoint of a five-day period with that date as the center of the five-day period. The bottom graphic shows the absolute values, the upper graphic shows anomalies compared to what one might expect at this time of the year in the various areas both 130E to 90W Longitude and from the surface down to 450 meters. At different times I have discussed the difference between the actual values and the deviation of the actual values from what is defined as current climatology (which adjusts every ten years except along the Equator where it is adjusted every five years) and how both measures are useful for other purposes.

There is cold water from 170W to Land. At  the west end of the cool anomaly it is now not quite 200 meters deep. We now have warm water developing west of the Dateline and starting to cross the Dateline. It is now intruding into the Eastern Pacific Nino 3.4 Measurement Area but at depth not at the surface. La Nina's days are numbered but in terms of months not weeks or days.
Subsurface temperature Anomalies
The 28C Isotherm is at the Dateline, the 27C Isotherm is at 170W, the 25C Isotherm is at 145W but  approaching 140W and the 20C Isotherm has reached the surface at about 110W which is not in the Nino 3.4 Measurement area.

The flattening of the Isotherm Pattern is an indication of ENSO Neutral just as the steepening of the pattern indicates La Nina or El Nino depending on where the slope shows the warm or cool pool to be. That flattening has occurred and we have gone to a Weak La Nina thermocline.

Tracking the change.

Sepember 15, 2017 Subsurface Water Temperatures Equatorial Ocean Subsurface as of December 4, 2017

 

I have "frozen" the graphic on the left side above which shows the situation as reported for September 15, 2017. The one on the right which is top half of the above graphic is updated by NOAA every five days but I have to update this snipped portion of that graphic into this article manually so the two can get out of phase by five days. It shows the situation now.  The situation is not much different east of the Dateline from the situation as reported for September 15, 2017. But west of the Dateline it looks a lot different  i.e. warmer. We use the graphic on the left as a reference to see how the current situation changes over time. September 15  to December 4, 2017, the subsurface warm anomaly has progressed to the east and strengthened substantially. It is not ready to displace or dilute the Eastern Pacific Cool Anomaly just yet but it will not be long. We now see a warm anomaly appearing below the cool anomaly at just east of 140W..

Here are the above graphics as a time sequence animation. You may have to click on them to get the animation going.

   

Equatorial Temperature Simulation

Isotherm Simulation

   

 

And now Let us look at the Atmosphere.
 

Low-Level Wind Anomalies near the Equator.

The 850 hPa level is above the surface but close to the surface.

And now the Outgoing Long-wave Radiation (OLR) Anomalies which tells us where convection has been taking place. The bottom of a Hovmoeller graphic shows the most recent readings.
Low Level Wlind Anomalies

OLR Anomalies Along the Equator

Reds and browns would be suppressed easterlies or enhanced westerlies and are typical of El Nino. We have the opposite. We see suppressed Outgoing Long Wave Radiation (OLR) at the Dateline i.e (dry) and we  see enhanced OLR at 120E ( wet)

 

And Now the Air Pressure to Confirm that the Atmosphere is Reacting to the Sea Surface Temperature Pattern. The most Common way to do that is to use an Index called the SOI.

This index provides an easy way to assess the location of and the relative strength of the Convection (Low Pressure) and the Subsidence (High Pressure) near the Equator. Experience shows that the extent to which the Atmospheric Air Pressure at Tahiti exceeds the Atmospheric Pressure at Darwin Australia when normalized is substantially correlated with the Precipitation Pattern of the entire World. At this point there seems to be no need to show the daily preliminary values of the SOI but we can work with the 30 day and 90 day values.

Current SOI Readings

The 30 Day Average on December11 was reported as 10.31 which is a La Nina value. The 90 Day Average was reported at 9.11 which is also a La Nina value. Looking at both the 30 and 90 day averages is useful and right now both are in agreement with the 90 day lagging the 30 day as one would expect.

 

SOI = 10 X [ Pdiff - Pdiffav ]/ SD(Pdiff) where Pdiff = (average Tahiti MSLP for the month) - (average Darwin MSLP for the month), Pdiffav = long term average of Pdiff for the month in question, and SD(Pdiff) = long term standard deviation of Pdiff for the month in question. So really it is comparing the extent to which Tahiti is more cloudy than Darwin, Australia. During El Nino we expect Darwin Australia to have lower air pressure and more convection than Tahiti (Negative SOI especially lower than -7 correlates with El Nino Conditions). During La Nina we expect the Warm Pool to be further east resulting in Positive SOI values greater than +7).

To some extent it is the change in the SOI that is of most importance. The MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is an important factor in regulating the SOI and Ocean Equatorial Kelvin Waves and other tropical weather characteristics. More information on the MJO can be found here. Here is another good resource.

Forecasting the Evolution of ENSO

Here is the primary NOAA model for forecasting the ENSO Cycle. The CDAS model is a legacy "frozen" NOAA system meaning the software is maintained but not updated. We find it convenient to obtain this graphic from Tropical Tidbits.com

CFSv2 spread and bias correct ENSO forecast

CDAS Legacy System

This model is forecasting a La Nina. It probably is the most aggressive model re being so definitive about the ENSO Phase for this Fall and Winter. Click here to see a month by month version of the same model but without some of the correction methodologies applied. It gives us a better picture of the further out months as we are looking at monthly estimates versus three-month averages. Notice that since mid-October, the Nino 3.4 Index has been in a declining channel. It is not in conflict with the primary NOAA model but shows daily values rather then smoothing them out like the CFSv2 Model does.

 

The CFS.v2 is not the only forecast tool used by NOAA. The CPC/IRI Analysis which is produced out of The International Research Institute (IRI) for Climate and Society at Columbia University is also very important to NOAA. Below are the November 9 and November 20 CPC/IRI ENSO Forecasts

November 20, 2017 CPC/IRI ENSO 3.4 forecast.

when you look at this graph you see four blue bars in the earlier graph and only three in the mid-month graph but that is because the early graph has OND in it and the second graph does not. So it really is not a big change except for FMA which favored La Nina in the early survey based analysis and now favors ENSO Neutral which is not a surprise to us.

Forecasts from Other Meteorological Agencies.

Here is the Nino 3.4 report from the Australian BOM (it updates every two weeks)

Australia POAMA ENSO model run

And the Discussion Issued on December 5, 2017:

La Niña established in tropical Pacific

The Bureau’s ENSO Outlook has been raised to LA NIÑA, indicating that the tropical Pacific has reached La Niña levels. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that further cooling of equatorial Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures is expected over summer.  All of the eight models reach or surpass La Niña thresholds during December 2017. Seven of the eight models sustain the conditions long enough to be considered an event, where persistence for three months is generally the minimum length required. [Editor’s Note: the NOAA criteria are far longer but require a smaller Nino 3.4 anomaly for La Nina Conditions to be declared to have been a full La Nina]  Climate models suggest this La Niña will be weak and short-lived, persisting until early southern autumn 2018.

Signs of La Niña in the equatorial Pacific have increased during spring. The central to eastern tropical Pacific Ocean has cooled steadily since winter, and is now at La Niña thresholds (0.8 °C below average). Atmospheric indicators, including the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), trade winds and cloud, also show clear La Niña patterns.

In order for 2017–18 to be classed as a La Niña year, the event needs to last for at least 3 months. Climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest that while this event is likely to persist over the southern summer, it will be weaker than the strong La Niña of 2010–12.

La Niña typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during late spring and summer. However, sea surface temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean and closer to Australia are not typical of a La Niña event, reducing the likelihood of widespread above average summer rainfall. La Niña can also increase the chance of prolonged warm spells for southeast Australia.

Here is the most recent JAMSTEC forecast issued on November 1, 2017

November 1, 2017 JAMSTEC Forecast

And here is the short discussion that was released on November 22, 2017

Nov. 22, 2017 Prediction from 1st Nov., 2017

ENSO forecast:

The weak La Niña-like condition will persist until boreal spring of next year. Then the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by summer.

Indian Ocean forecast:

A normal state in the tropical Indian Ocean will persist until spring of next year. Then we expect a positive Indian Ocean Dipole in summer of 2018. However, there is a large uncertainty in the prediction at present because of the large spread in the prediction plumes of the dipole mode index.

Regional forecast:

On a seasonal scale, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of Africa and Brazil will experience a colder-than-normal condition in boreal winter.

As regards to the seasonally averaged rainfall, a wetter-than-normal condition is predicted for some parts of East Africa, eastern Southern Africa, Philippine, East Australia, and northern Brazil during boreal winter, whereas most parts of Indonesia, West Australia, West Africa, southern Europe, western U.S, eastern China and southern Brazil will experience a drier condition during boreal winter. Those are partly due to the weak La Niña-like condition.

In winter, most parts of Japan will experience warmer- and drier-than-normal conditions.

Indian Ocean IOD (It updates every two weeks)

The IOD Forecast is indirectly related to ENSO but in a complex way.

IOD POAMA Model Run

Discussion Issued December 5

Indian Ocean Dipole outlooks

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The weekly index value to 3 December was +0.05 °C. All six of the climate models surveyed by the Bureau indicate that the IOD will remain neutral into early 2018.

The influence of the IOD on Australian climate is weak during December to April. This is because the monsoon trough shifts south over the tropical Indian Ocean changing wind patterns, which prevents the IOD pattern from being able to form.

However, to the south of the traditional Indian Ocean Dipole regions, cooler than average sea surface temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean may be limiting the feed of moisture over Australia, and opposing more typical La Niña influences.

It is important to understand how and where the IOD is measured.

IOD Measurement Regions

IOD Positive is the West Area being warmer than the East Area (with of course many adjustments/normalizations). IOD Negative is the East Area being warmer than the West Area. Notice that the Latitudinal extent of the western box is greater than that of the eastern box. This type of index is based on observing how these patterns impact weather and represent the best efforts of meteorological agencies to figure these things out. Global Warming may change the formulas probably slightly over time but it is costly and difficult to redo this sort of work because of long weather cycles.

D. Putting it all Together.

At this time it would seem a La Nina is here for this Winter and Spring. But the situation for next Summer is not yet clear. However, we are getting very close to being able to forecast the end of this La Nina event. But it may only be a temporary end for the Summer and next Fall as it may return for next Winter or Spring.

Forecasting Beyond Five Years.

So in terms of long-term forecasting, none of this is very difficult to figure out actually if you are looking at say a five-year or longer forecast.

The research on Ocean Cycles is fairly conclusive and widely available to those who seek it out. I have provided a lot of information on this in prior weeks and all of that information is preserved in Part II of my report in the Section on Low Frequency Cycles 3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS. It includes decade by decade predictions through 2050. Predicting a particular year is far harder.

The odds of a climate shift for the Pacific taking place has significantly increased. It may be in progress. The AMO is pretty much neutral at this point (but more positive i.e. warm than I had expected) so it may need to become a bit more negative for the "McCabe A" pattern to become established. That seems to be slow to happen so I am thinking we need at least a couple more years for that to happen. So our assessment is that the standard time for Climate Shifts in the Pacific are likely to prevail and it most likely will be a gradual process with a speed up in less than five years but more than two years. The next El Nino may be the trigger.

E. Relevant Recent Articles and Reports

Weather in the News

Bob Henson of WU on Where is our Moisture.

Weather Research in the News

Old Article on Zonal Wave Numbers but very Important.

Global Warming in the News

Article in the  Weather Research News Category also applies here.

F. Table of Contents for Page II of this Report Which Provides a lot of Background Information on Weather and Climate Science

The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page II where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.

1. Very High Frequency (short-term) Cycles PNA, AO,NAO (but the AO and NAO may also have a low frequency component.)

2. Medium Frequency Cycles such as ENSO and IOD

3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS.

4. Computer Models and Methodologies

5. Reserved for a Future Topic (Possibly Predictable Economic Impacts)

G. Table of Contents of Contents for Page III of this Report - Global Warming Which Some Call Climate Change.

The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page III where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.

1. Introduction

2. Climate Impacts of Global Warming

3. Economic Impacts of Global Warming

4. Reports from Around the World on Impacts of Global Warming

H. Useful Background Information

The current conditions are measured by determining the deviation of actual sea surface temperatures from seasonal norms (adjusted for Global Warming) in certain parts of the Equatorial Pacific. The below diagram shows those areas where measurements are taken.

El Nino Zones

NOAA focuses on a combined area which is all of Region Nino 3 and part of Region Nino 4 and it is called Nino 3.4. They focus on that area as they believe it provides the best correlation with future weather for the U.S. primarily the Continental U.S. not including Alaska which is abbreviated as CONUS. The historical approach of measurement of the impact of the sea surface temperature pattern on the atmosphere is called the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) which is the difference between the atmospheric pressure at Tahiti as compared to Darwin Australia. It was convenient to do this as weather stations already existed at those two locations and it is easier to have weather stations on land than at sea. It has proven to be quite a good measure. The best information on the SOI is produced by Queensland Australia and that information can be found here. SOI is based on Atmospheric pressure as a surrogate for Convection and Subsidence. Another approach made feasible by the use of satellites is to measure precipitation over the areas of interest and this is called the El Nino - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Precipitation Index (ESPI). We covered that in a weekly Weather and Climate Report which can be found here. Our conclusion was that ESPI did not differentiate well between La Nina and Neutral. And there is now a newer measure not regularly used called the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI). More information on MEI can be found here. The jury is still out on MEI and it it is not widely used.

The below diagram shows the usual location of the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool. When the warm water shifts to the east we have an El Nino; to the west a La Nina.

Western Pacific Warm Pool

Click for Source

Interaction between the MJO and ENSO

This Table is a first attempt at trying to relate the MJO to ENSO

El Nino La Nina MJO Active Phase MJO Inactive Phase Relationship of MJO and ENSO Eastern Pacific Easterlies Western Pacific Westerlies MJO Active Phase MJO Inactive Phase

  • Weaker
  • Stronger
  • Part of Decay Process
  • Counteracts Easterlies
  • Enhances Easterlies
  • Stronger
  • May Create or Stimulate the Onset of El Nino via Kelvin Waves
  • Weaker
  • Part of Decay Process
  • Strengthens Westerlies
  • Weakens Westerlies
  • More likely
  • Stimulates
  • Less likely and weak
  • Retards development of a new La Nina
  • Stimulates the Jet Stream
 
  • Less Likely
  • Suppresses
  • More likely but weak
  • Accelerates development of a new La Nina and the Decline of a mature La Nina
 
  • Slows the Jet Stream and can induce a Split Stream especially during a La Nina

 

Table needs more work. Is intended to show the interactions. What is more difficult is determining cause and effect. This is a Work in Progress.

History of ENSO Events as measured by the ONI

December 4, 2017 Revised Historical ONI Readins.

Note: Without fanfare the base climatology was recently changed from ERSST.V4 to ERSST.V5. This is done every five years and is totally proper but it does shuffle the deck re what were and were not ENSO events so it perhaps should have had more press but that is not the fault of NOAA but if they had kept me in the loop I would have covered it. I was not excluded just not included and did not notice it until after the fact. No big  deal but it is important. 

The new SON reading of -0.7 is the first La Nina Reading. These would have to extend through JFM 2018 for this to be recorded as a La Nina. The chances of this are about  50:50. The full history of the ONI readings can be found here. The MEI index readings can be found here.

Four Quadrant Jet Streak Model Read more here This is very useful for guessing at weather as a trough passes through.

If the centripetal accelerations owing to flow curvature are small, then we can use the "straight" jet streak model. The schematic figure directly below shows a straight jet streak at the base of a trough in the height field. The core of maximum winds defining the jet streak is divided into four quadrants composed of the upstream (entrance) and downstream (exit) regions and the left and right quadrants, which are defined facing downwind.


Isotachs are shaded in blue for a westerly jet streak (single large arrow). Thick red lines denote geopotential height contours. Thick black vectors represent cross-stream (transverse) ageostrophic winds with magnitudes given by arrow length. Vertical cross sections transverse to the flow in the entrance and exit regions of the jet (J) are shown in the bottom panels along A-A' and B-B', respectively. Convergence and divergence at the jet level are denoted by "CON" and "DIV". "COLD" and "WARM" refer to the air masses defined by the green isentropes.

[Editor's Note: There are many undefined words in the above so here are some brief definitions. Isotachs are lines of equal wind speed. Convergence is when there is an inflow of air which tends to force the air higher with cooling and cloud formation. Divergence is when there is an outflow of air which tends to result in air sinking which causes drying and warming, Confluence is when two streams of air come together. Diffluence is when part of a stream of air splits off.]

Click here for a list of Sig Silber's Weather Posts

>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.




Econintersect Weather








search_box
Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.







Keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government




























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2018 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved