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posted on 14 October 2017

Luck of the Irish? - 15Oct2017

Written by Sig Silber

5:40PM EDT Oct 15, 2017: LATEST FROM NHC: "...OPHELIA STILL A HURRICANE BUT EXPECTED TO BECOME A POWERFUL POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT... " "Only a slight decrease in the maximum winds is therefore expected before the post-tropical cyclone reaches Ireland...This should keep Ophelia on a north-northeast heading as it passes over Ireland and the UK on Monday. " Read article for more information.

luck of the Irish

The track has not changed and there was just not enough time for this storm to weaken sufficiently over cooler water.


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Imagery of Ophelia 

 

  Hurricane Ophelia Track

 

Ophelia Wind Speed

Wind arrival times

Discussion

Hurricane Ophelia Discussion Number 27 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 PM AST Sun Oct 15 2017

Ophelia's cloud structure is declining rapidly, and microwave and shortwave IR imagery indicate that the low-level and mid-level centers are becoming separated.  However, some deep convection is still present near Ophelia's center, and an SSMIS pass from 1827 UTC indicated that the hurricane still has an inner core that is separated from a front to the north and west.  The estimated maximum winds have been decreased slightly to 75 kt given the overall decay of the cloud structure.  However, the cyclone's favorable position relative to an upper-level jet streak is likely contributing to deepening of the low as the wind field expands substantially.  Only a slight decrease in the maximum winds is therefore expected before the post-tropical cyclone reaches Ireland.  After that time, interaction with land while the cyclone occludes should cause it to weaken more rapidly.  Around 48 h, the cyclone's circulation is likely to become ill-defined and dissipate near the western coast of Scandinavia.

Ophelia has continued to move toward the north-northeast, and the initial motion estimate remains 025/33 kt.  There has been no change to the track forecast reasoning since Ophelia is already embedded within the flow associated with a large mid-latitude trough.  This should keep Ophelia on a north-northeast heading as it passes over Ireland and the UK on Monday.  The dynamical guidance remains in very good agreement on the track of Ophelia, and very little change has been made to the track forecast.

Since Ophelia will be post-tropical as it approaches Ireland and the UK, strong winds and rain will arrive over land areas sooner than the center. For more information on local impacts, consult products from local meteorological services in Ireland and the United Kingdom for more information.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Ophelia is expected to be a powerful extratropical cyclone with hurricane force winds while it moves near Ireland and the United Kingdom.  Direct impacts from wind and heavy rain in portions of these areas are likely, along with dangerous marine conditions. For more details on the magnitude, timing, and location of impacts from post-tropical Ophelia, residents in Ireland should refer to products issued by Met Eireann, and residents in the United Kingdom should refer to products issued by the Met Office.

2. Individuals are urged to not focus on the exact track of Ophelia since strong winds and heavy rainfall will extend well outside of the NHC forecast cone.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/2100Z 44.6N  13.3W   75 KT  85 MPH

12H  16/0600Z 49.2N  11.3W   70 KT  80 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

24H  16/1800Z 54.3N   7.5W   55 KT  65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

36H  17/0600Z 58.5N   2.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

48H  17/1800Z...DISSIPATED

Watches and Warnings from Met.ie

Ophelia Warnings October 15, 2017

Temperature forecast you can see the warm water creating a partial survival path for the storm all the way to the British Isles. But 20C is not 28C so the storm has not thrived but has not dissipated either.

Temperature at 2 Meters

Click here for a list of Sig Silber's Weather Posts

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