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posted on 09 October 2017

Nate Impacts Continue through Monday - 09Oct2017

Written by Sig Silber

Updated 2:40PM EDT Oct 09, 2017: FINAL UPDATE FROM WPC: "NATE CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...NATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.."  More detail and various graphics are provided in the full report below.

Special Landing Graphic -  Monday Last Day for Nate


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 Water Vapor Imagery

 

The water vapor imagery is a good guide to where precipitation is occurring. NATE is pretty much gone as of 2:15PM EDT October 9, 2017

The below shows the anticipated precipitation

Precipitation Forecast

You can see the forecast for seven days of cumulative precipitation. It is important to keep in mind that these are forecasts going forward. The high precipitation is not just where landfall is anticipated but increasingly further north as the storm departs CONUS.

And from the WPC a bit more focused and limited to the next two days. What you see now is totally across the North.

WPC precipitation forecast for NATE

To assist in understanding how this may play out, this is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours.

current highs and lows

Here is FINAL WPC Update

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM EDT MON OCT 09 2017

NATE CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS TO MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...41.8N 79.5W

ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM...ESE OF ERIE PENNSYLVANIA

ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...W OF BRADFORD PENNSYLVANIA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...15 MPH...25 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 45 MPH...72 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES

AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 41.8 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 79.5 WEST. NATE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH NATE CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MID-ATLANTIC REGIONS THIS MORNING AS TROPICAL MOISTURE INTERACTS WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST. NATE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WEAKENING FURTHER AS IT TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN U.S..

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL...NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FROM NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND TODAY. RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NEXT ADVISORY

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 09/1500Z 41.8N 79.5W

12HR VT 10/0000Z 44.3N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Forecast Map

Day 2 Forecast

Day 2 Forecast

Click here for a list of Sig Silber's Weather Posts

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