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posted on 08 October 2017

Nate Now Tropical Depression - 08Oct2017

Written by Sig Silber


This Article has been updated. You can access the updated article by clicking on: Nate Impacts Continue Through Monday - 09Oct2017


5:10 PM EDT Oct 08, 2017: LATEST FROM WPC: "TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS NEAR 6 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA, WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA, AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, OHIO VALLEY, LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST WEST OF I-95, THE REMNANTS OF NATE WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY."

Special Landing Graphic -  NATE NOW TROPICAL DEPRESSION

...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER... "

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS


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 Water Vapor Imagery

The water vapor imagery is a good guide to where precipitation is occurring.

Here is the track.

Track Troical Depression 16

This wind forecast is also of interest. Notice the secondary impacts on the Northeast.

Wind Distribution fo Sixteen

The below shows the anticipated precipitation

Precipitation Forecast

You can see the forecast for seven days of cumulative precipitation. It is important to keep in mind that these are forecasts going forward. The high precipitation is not just where landfall is anticipated but inland into the southern Appalachians.

And  from the WPC a bit more focused and limited to the next two days.

WPC precipitation forecast for NATE

To assist in understanding how this may play out, this is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours.

current highs and lows

Here is the latest WPC Update

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD AL162017 500 PM EDT SUN OCT 08 2017

...NATE MOVING INLAND WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS...

SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...35.0N 86.5W

ABOUT 75 MILES...125 KM...S OF NASHVILLE METRO TENNESSEE

ABOUT 30 MILES...45 KM...NE OF HUNTSVILLE/MADISON ALABAMA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 025 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

HIGH WIND WARNINGS AND WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

FLASH FLOOD WATCHES AND FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS

FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE WATCHES

AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 35.0 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST. RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH NATE ON THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS OF THE CIRCULATION AND IT CONTINUES TO BECOME MORE ASYMMETRIC. FEEDER BANDS WITH INTENSE RAINFALL ARE STREAMING NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND GEORGIA INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. FURTHER NORTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY, TROPICAL MOISTURE IS INTERACTING WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEADING TO HEAVY RAINFALL. NATE WILL CONTINUE TO ACCELERATE TO THE NORTHEAST MOVING BY THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS IN 24 HOURS AND THROUGH THE NORTHEAST EXITING MAINE ON TUESDAY.

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL...TROPICAL DEPRESSION NATE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS NEAR 6 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHERN GEORGIA INTO UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA, WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA, AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS, OHIO VALLEY, LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST WEST OF I-95, THE REMNANTS OF NATE WILL BRING A TOTAL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY.

 Here is the Final NHC Discussion:

Tropical Depression Nate Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

The center of Nate continues to move quickly north-northeastward over central Alabama.  Moderate westerly shear has caused most of the deep convection and heavy rainfall to be displaced to the east and northeast of the center, and surface observations show that Nate has continued to rapidly weaken.  Wind gusts to tropical-storm strength are still occurring over portions of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle, but there are no recent reports of sustained tropical-storm-force winds.  Therefore, Nate is now a 30-kt tropical depression.  Nate is expected to become a remnant low on Monday, and extratropical by Tuesday before it is absorbed by frontal system.  The intensity forecast keeps the wind speed around 30 kt during the next 48 hours, since winds are expected to increase along the mid-Atlantic coast and southern New England coast on Monday when the post-tropical low approaches that area.

Nate should continue to move quickly north-northeastward to northeastward within the mid-latitude westerlies during the next 24 to 36 hours.  The cyclone is forecast to turn east-northeastward by Tuesday before it merges with the frontal system.

This is the last NHC advisory on Nate.  Heavy rainfall associated with Nate is expected to spread over the Tennessee Valley, the southern and central Appalachians, and the Ohio Valley during the next day or so.  Future information on Nate system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 5 PM EDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.  These advisories will continue as long as Nate poses a flooding threat to the U.S.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for flash flooding in these areas.

2. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.

3. Wind gusts to tropical storm force are expected over portions of the Florida Panhandle, Alabama, and Georgia through this afternoon.

4. Persistent onshore flow will keep water levels elevated along portions of the northern Gulf coast through today. See products issues by your local National Weather Service Forecast Office for additional information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/1500Z 33.1N  87.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

12H  09/0000Z 36.2N  85.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

24H  09/1200Z 40.1N  79.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND

36H  10/0000Z 43.1N  72.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

48H  10/1200Z 45.0N  65.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

72H  11/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nate Advisory Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 AM CDT Sun Oct 08 2017

...HEAVY RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND AS NATE BECOMES A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...

...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER...

SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...33.1N 87.3W

ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF BIRMINGHAM ALABAMA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 24 MPH...39 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

All coastal warnings have been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Forecast Map

Day 2 Forecast

Day 2 Forecast

Click here for a list of Sig Silber's Weather Posts

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