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posted on 08 October 2017

Nate Still Dangerous - 08Oct2017

Written by Sig Silber


This Article has been updated. You can access the updated article by clicking on Nate now a Tropical Depression08Oct2017


12:10 AM CDT Oct 08, 2017: LATEST FROM NHC: "...NATE'S NORTHERN EYEWALL MOVING ONSHORE THE MISSISSIPPI COAST..." " the northern eyewall, which will be moving onshore the Mississippi coast soon, remains quite vigorous.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured a maximum 850-mb flight-level wind of 89 kt and some SFMR values around 70 kt.  Although the SFMR could be affected by wave shoaling in this case, the data as a whole appear to support an initial intensity of 75 kt."

Special Landing Graphic -  Moving Inland

I did not find a really good map to show how this storm is making two landfalls but the Mississippi River Delta is a very complex area so even after the first landfall there is a lot of open water before the next and final landfall.


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 Water Vapor Imagery

The water vapor imagery is a good guide to where precipitation is occurring.

Here is the track.

Track Troical Depression 16

This wind forecast is also of interest.

Wind Distribution fo Sixteen

The below shows the anticipated precipitation

Precipitation Forecast

You can see the forecast for seven days of cumulative precipitation. It is important to keep in mind that these are forecasts going forward. The high precipitation is not just where landfall is anticipated but inland into the southern Appalachians.

To assist in understanding how this may play out, this is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours.

current highs and lows

Here is the Discussion:

Hurricane Nate Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1000 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

A ragged central dense overcast persists over Nate's center, but radar trends have shown all of the deep convection migrating to the north and northeast of the center, likely due to increasing south-southwesterly shear.  Still, the northern eyewall, which will be moving onshore the Mississippi coast soon, remains quite vigorous.  An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft recently measured a maximum 850-mb flight-level wind of 89 kt and some SFMR values around 70 kt.  Although the SFMR could be affected by wave shoaling in this case, the data as a whole appear to support an initial intensity of 75 kt.  Nate's central pressure has been rising slowly, with the latest report from the plane being 984 mb.

Nate has turned northward and slowed down a bit with an initial motion of 360/17 kt.  On this course, the hurricane is expected to make a second landfall along the Mississippi coast within the next hour or two.  After landfall, Nate should turn gradually toward the northeast and accelerate again during the next day or two while it moves between a large mid-level high off the southeastern U.S. coast and a large trough digging into the central U.S.  This steering pattern will take Nate across the Deep South, Tennessee Valley, and central Appalachian Mountains during the next couple of days.  The new NHC track forecast is unchanged from the previous one.

With landfall imminent, no changes in intensity are expected before that time.  After landfall, land and increasing shear should contribute to fast weakening, and Nate is expected to become a tropical storm in 6-12 hours and then weaken to a tropical depression by 36 hours.  Nate is likely to become a remnant low by 48 hours, and the global models suggest that the cyclone will be absorbed by another low or cold front by 72 hours.  That scenario is now reflected in the NHC forecast.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Nate is expected to bring life-threatening storm surge flooding near and well east of where the center makes landfall, and a storm surge warning is in effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River to the Okaloosa/Walton county line in Florida.  Maximum flooding of 7 to 11 feet above ground level is expected along the Mississippi coast within the next several hours.

2. Hurricane conditions are spreading onshore along the coasts of Mississippi and Alabama, where a hurricane warning is in effect. The strongest winds are expected to occur primarily to the east of the track of the center.

3. Nate's fast forward speed after landfall will bring tropical-storm-force winds well inland across portions of the southeastern U.S.  Tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for portions of southeastern Mississippi, much of Alabama, and western Georgia.

4. Nate will bring heavy rainfall of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals of 10 inches east of the Mississippi River from the central Gulf Coast into the Deep South, eastern Tennessee Valley, and southern Appalachians through Monday, resulting in the potential for flash flooding in these areas.

5. Moisture from Nate interacting with a frontal zone will also bring 2 to 5 inches of rain with isolated totals of 7 inches across the Ohio Valley and central Appalachians Sunday and Monday, which will increase the risk for flash flooding across these locations.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/0300Z 29.9N  89.1W   75 KT  85 MPH

12H  08/1200Z 32.1N  88.2W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND

24H  09/0000Z 35.7N  85.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

36H  09/1200Z 39.3N  80.2W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND

48H  10/0000Z 42.1N  73.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H  11/0000Z...DISSIPATED

HURRICANE NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0300 UTC SUN OCT 08 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER AND FOR LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

THE HURRICANE WARNING FROM GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER HAS BEEN CHANGED TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE HURRICANE WATCH FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF GRAND ISLE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER TO THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO THE OKALOOSA/WALTON COUNTY LINE FLORIDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN

* LAKE MAUREPAS

* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE PEARL RIVER

* EAST OF THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA

Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Forecast Map

Day 2 Forecast

Day 2 Forecast

Click here for a list of Sig Silber's Weather Posts

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