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posted on 07 October 2017

Nate Lands - 07Oct2017

Written by Sig Silber


This Article has been updated. You can access the updated article by clicking on "Nate Still Dangerous - 08Oct2017"


7:50 PM CDT Oct 07, 2017: LATEST FROM NHC: "...NATE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER..." "At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the center of Hurricane Nate is now making landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi River, near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 89.2 West...On the forecast track, the center of Nate will make a second landfall along the coast of Mississippi tonight.  After landfall, the center of Nate is expected to pass over portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee late tonight through Sunday night."

Special Landing Graphic -  NATE ARRIVES

"The Hurricane Warning for Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.  The Hurricane Watch for Lake Maurepas has been discontinued."


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 Water Vapor Imagery

The water vapor imagery is a good guide to where precipitation is occurring.

Here is the track.

Track Troical Depression 16

This wind forecast is also of interest.

Wind Distribution fo Sixteen

The below shows the anticipated precipitation

Precipitation Forecast+

You can see the forecast for seven days of cumulative precipitation. It is important to keep in mind that these are forecasts going forward. The high precipitation is not just where landfall is anticipated but inland into the southern Appalachians.

Here is the Discussion:

BULLETIN Hurricane Nate Intermediate Advisory Number 14A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       700 PM CDT Sat Oct 07 2017

SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...29.0N 89.2W

ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warning for Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning.  The Hurricane Watch for Lake Maurepas has been discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Grand Isle Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida

* Northern and western shores of Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Metropolitan New Orleans and Lake Pontchartrain

* Lake Maurepas

* West of Grand Isle to Morgan City Louisiana

* East of the Alabama/Florida border to Indian Pass Florida

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* East of the Alabama/Florida border to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), NOAA Doppler radar data indicate that the center of Hurricane Nate is now making landfall at the mouth of the Mississippi River, near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 89.2 West. Nate is now moving toward the north and a little slower, near 20 mph (31 km/h). A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later tonight, followed by a motion toward the northeast on Sunday.  On the forecast track, the center of Nate will make a second landfall along the coast of Mississippi tonight.  After landfall, the center of Nate is expected to pass over portions of Mississippi, Alabama, and Tennessee late tonight through Sunday night.

Aircraft reconnaissance data and Doppler radar velocity data indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher gusts.  Strengthening now appears unlikely before Nate's center reaches the Mississippi coast during the next few hours.  Rapid weakening is expected after landfall, with Nate becoming a tropical depression by Sunday night.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km) mainly to the east of the center.  A sustained wind of 54 mph (87 km/h) and a gust to 58 mph (94 km/h) were recently reported by NOAA buoy 42040 to the east of the mouth of the Mississippi River.

The minimum central pressure based on aircraft data is 982 mb (29.00 inches).

A water level of 2.9 ft above Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) was recently reported by a National Ocean Service gauge at Pilots Station East, Southwest Pass, Louisiana.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

WIND:  Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area in the next few hours, with tropical storm conditions already spreading onshore.  Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning area tonight and Sunday morning.  Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight.

General Weather Situation

We believe that it is easier to understand what is going on with individual storms if they are put into the context of the overall weather situation.

Three day

Day 1 Forecast

Day 1 Forecast Map

Day 2 Forecast

Day 2 Forecast

This is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. This graphic is very relevant as one can see both storms of most interest in this graphic. .

current highs and lows

This describes the system for rating hurricanes based on sustained wind speeds.

Saffir - Simpson

Click here for a list of Sig Silber's Weather Posts

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