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posted on 05 October 2017

Another Hurricane? - 05Oct2017

Written by Sig Silber


This Article has been updated. You can access the Updated article here.


1:10 AM EDT Oct 05, 2017: LATEST FROM NHC: "...DEPRESSION HEADING TOWARD THE NICARAGUA COAST... ...FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA..." "Once the center re-emerges over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea, high oceanic heat content and low shear should contribute to strengthening...the amount of strengthening will be unclear until we know how well the inner core survives crossing over Nicaragua and Honduras."

Special Landing Graphic -  Another Hurricane

We may have a new hurricane to deal with. There is much uncertainty about how this storm may evolve including the intensity and track re possible landfall in the U.S. Gulf States. The immediate impact on Central America is a lot more certain. Until we know if this is a substantial threat to the U.S. our updates will be once a day in the evening after the 11PM EDT NHC update. For those who desire more frequent updates, these are available by clicking here.


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In this Article we are gong to focus mainly on the Atlantic and Tropical Depression 16 in Particular.

Eastern Tropical Pacific 

This graphic looks out a bit further into the future. It is an analysis of projected tropical hazards and benefits over an approximately two-week period.

Tropical Hazards

Last week we said"

Notice in the forecast for September 27 through October 3 the area west of Central America has the potential for cyclone development and the following week the forecast is that both the Caribbean and Pacific side have the potential for cyclone development. 

Well, last week became this week and as you can see in the graphic which updated this past Tuesday, the potential for cyclonic development to the west and east of Central America is coming to pass but the storm on the West Side appears to be headed west and out to sea. So we are focusing on the storm on the East Side of Central America.

Here is the Track.

Track Troical Depression 16

This is also of interest.

Wind Distribution fo Sixteen

Here is the Discussion

Tropical Depression Sixteen Discussion Number 3 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL  1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 04 2017

There have been some structural changes to the depression during the past few hours.  Inner-core convection began developing just after the issuance of the previous advisory, and Colombian radar images from San Andres are now showing a well-defined convective band to the east and southeast of the center.  Despite these changes, Dvorak satellite estimates remain T2.0 from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt.

The depression probably only has another 12 hours or so before its center moves inland over northeastern Nicaragua, but it is still expected to reach tropical storm strength before that happens. Once the center re-emerges over the waters of the northwestern Caribbean Sea a little after 24 hours from now, high oceanic heat content and low shear should contribute to strengthening.  Despite these favorable conditions, the amount of strengthening will be unclear until we know how well the inner core survives crossing over Nicaragua and Honduras.  Strengthening is likely to continue through at least day 3 up until the time the cyclone reaches the central Gulf of Mexico.  After day 3, there are some indications that higher shear and/or cooler shelf waters over the northern Gulf of Mexico could lead to some weakening, but that scenario is by no means a definite one at this time.  Needless to say, there continues to be greater-than-normal uncertainty in the intensity forecast. The updated NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward just a bit through day 3 to follow an overall shift in the guidance, although it should be noted that the official forecast still lies above the normally skillful HCCA model.

If the intensity forecast is complex, the track forecast is not much easier.  For the first 48 hours, the models appear split on how the depression will interact with a disturbance currently located near the Straits of Florida.  For example, the ECMWF model shows some interaction with the disturbance's low-level vorticity, which swings the depression more to the east on the right side of the guidance envelope.  The GFS, on the other hand, shows no such interaction and has the cyclone on the western side of the guidance envelope.  This setup has significant downstream effects after 48 hours because it keeps the ECMWF on an eastern route and the GFS on a western route as the cyclone heads toward the U.S. Gulf coast. The new NHC track forecast has been shifted slightly westward, although it is still not as far west as the consensus aids or the HCCA model.  Interestingly, although the ECMWF ensemble mean is close to the operational run on the eastern side of the guidance envelope, there is a high density of members to the left close to the consensus aids, which lends additional support for the westward adjustment.

A G-IV mission and Florida special soundings will begin tomorrow to better determine the synoptic steering flow around the cyclone.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and bring tropical storm conditions to portions of Nicaragua and Honduras through early Friday.  Heavy rainfall could produce life-threatening flash flooding and mud slides in portions of Nicaragua, Honduras, Costa Rica, and Panama through Friday night.

2. The system could be near hurricane intensity when it approaches the Yucatan Peninsula late Friday or Saturday, bringing direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, and a hurricane watch has been issued for a portion of this area.

3. The system is forecast to continue strengthening over the Gulf of Mexico and could affect portions of the northern Gulf Coast as a hurricane this weekend, with direct impacts from wind, storm surge, and heavy rainfall.  However, it is too early to specify the timing, location, or magnitude of these impacts.  Residents along the Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida should monitor the progress of this system for the next several days and heed any advice given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/0300Z 12.8N  82.7W   30 KT  35 MPH

12H  05/1200Z 13.5N  83.2W   35 KT  40 MPH

24H  06/0000Z 15.1N  83.7W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND

36H  06/1200Z 17.6N  84.7W   45 KT  50 MPH

48H  07/0000Z 20.2N  86.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

72H  08/0000Z 25.5N  88.6W   70 KT  80 MPH

96H  09/0000Z 30.5N  87.0W   65 KT  75 MPH...INLAND

120H  10/0000Z 36.5N  82.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0300 UTC THU OCT 05 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* SANDY BAY SIRPI NICARAGUA TO PUNTA CASTILLA HONDURAS

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* PUNTA HERRERO TO CABO CATOCHE MEXICO

General Weather Situation

We believe that it is easier to understand what is going on with individual storms if they are put into the context of the overall weather situation.

Three day

The graphic above is particularly useful as it shows the forecasted conditions that might determine the future of a storm beyond the predictions of where the storm might be on Day 3. This graphic is updated frequently. By Day 3 This new Tropical Cyclone is being shown in the forecast.

Below are the Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies. You can see that it is a bit warm where the storm is being generated but normal along its projected track until it gets close to shore along the northern Gulf Coast if indeed it heads that way.

Daily SST Anomalies

Additional Graphics

Day 1 Forecast Map

This is the Day 1 Forecast. You can see Hurricane Maria

Day 2 Forecast

This is a Day 2 Forecast.  The Low over Florida may later interact with this new storm.

This is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. This graphic is very relevant as one can see both storms of most interest in this graphic. .

current highs and lows

The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color coding.

Precipitation Forecast

You can see the forecast for seven days of cumulative precipitation. It is important to keep in mind that these are forecasts going forward. QPF for this new storm has not yet been factored in. But one sees the projected impact of a different Tropical Wave on Florida.

 Water Vapor Imagery

The water vapor imagery is a good guide to where precipitation is occurring.You can see the impact of the current tropical wave on Florida.
 

Click here for a list of Sig Silber's Weather Posts

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