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posted on 27 September 2017

Out to Sea to Meet Lee - 27Sep2017

Written by Sig Silber


This article has been updated; You can assess the updated article by clicking on "Farewell Maria Finally"


4:15 PM EDT Sept 27, 2017: LATEST FROM NHC re once again Hurricane Maria: "...MARIA BEGINNING TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA... " "Based on these data, the initial wind speed is adjusted to 65 kt, which makes Maria a hurricane once again." "Maria is..expected to turn east-northeastward on Thursday as it enters the mid-latitude westerly flow.

Special Landing Graphic for Possible Hurricane Maria - Out to Sea to Meet Lee

Impacts from Maria through today.  Watches and Warnings are gradually being discontinued. Most likely our report tonight will kiss Maria goodbye. Looks like Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Lee will end up merging perhaps based on what is called the Fujiwhara Effect. More detail below.


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his remains an active period in the tropics so we are starting with the overview. Those potentially impacted by any of these storms should consult their local sources of information. The Public Advisories and other information that is available from the NOAA National Hurricane Center can be found here. Information from the Weather Prediction Center can be found here.

In this Article we are gong to focus mainly on the Atlantic. Notice there are two storms there: Maria and Lee. More on that later.

Eastern Tropical Pacific 

Note possible new storm to worry about.

An area of disturbed weather associated with a trough of low pressure is located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.  This system is forecast to move slowly north-northwestward across Cuba and the Straits for Florida during the next day or so.  Some development of this system is possible when it moves near the Florida peninsula or the northwestern Bahamas on Friday or Saturday before upper-level winds become less favorable early next week. Regardless of development, this system is likely to produce locally heavy rainfall over portions of Cuba, southern Florida, the Florida Keys, and the Bahamas during the next several days. 

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.

* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

This graphic looks out a bit further into the future. It is an analysis of projected tropical hazards and benefits over an approximately two-week period.

Tropical Hazards

Notice in the forecast for September 27 through October 3 the area west of Central America has the potential for cyclone development and the following week the forecast is that both the Caribbean and Pacific side have the potential for cyclone development. 

We start our Report with Hurricane Maria. The"M" Designation means a very powerful storm: Category 3 or higher.  Notice that Maria no longer categorized as "M".  In fact it had been downgraded to Tropical Storm Designation but has just now been upgraded to a Cat 1 Hurricane.

Tropical Depression 15

Experimental Wind Arrival Analysis

And the Discussion for Maria which was upgraded to Hurricane Status.

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 46 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 AM EDT Wed Sep 27 2017

Deep convection and banding has increased over the eastern and northeastern portion of the large circulation of Maria since yesterday. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft has measured peak flight-level winds of 74 kt and several believable SFMR winds around 65 kt in the convection well northeast of the center this morning.  Based on these data, the initial wind speed is adjusted to 65 kt, which makes Maria a hurricane once again. Although the shear is forecast to decrease over Maria during the next couple of days, cool sea surface temperatures are likely to result in a slow decrease in intensity.  The new NHC intensity forecast is a little above the previous advisory due to the slightly higher initial intensity.  Maria is expected to become an extratropical low over the north Atlantic by 96 h and be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over the northeastern Atlantic by day 5.

Maria is finally making its much anticipated north-northeast turn, with an estimated motion of 015/5.  The hurricane is expected to turn east-northeastward on Thursday as it enters the mid-latitude westerly flow.  A trough moving into eastern North America late this week should cause Maria to accelerate east-northeastward over the north Atlantic on Friday and Saturday.  The spread in the guidance is still largely along track after 36 hours, and the NHC forecast remains near the model consensus to account for these differences.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Maria is forecast to slowly move away from the North Carolina coast later today.  However, tropical storm conditions are expected to continue along portions of the North Carolina coast through this afternoon.

2. Storm surge flooding is occurring, especially along the sound side of the North Carolina Outer Banks, and a storm surge warning and watch are in effect for portions of eastern North Carolina.

3. Swells generated by Maria are affecting much of the east coast of the United States, Atlantic Canada, Bermuda, the Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands.  These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.  Please consult products from your local weather office for more information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  27/1500Z 35.6N  72.6W   65 KT  75 MPH

12H  28/0000Z 36.1N  72.1W   65 KT  75 MPH

24H  28/1200Z 36.5N  70.5W   60 KT  70 MPH

36H  29/0000Z 36.7N  67.3W   55 KT  65 MPH

48H  29/1200Z 37.7N  62.4W   55 KT  65 MPH

72H  30/1200Z 42.5N  47.5W   50 KT  60 MPH

96H  01/1200Z 50.0N  26.0W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

120H  02/1200Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW

 

HURRICANE MARIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 46 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1500 UTC WED SEP 27 2017

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF OCRACOKE   INLET.

THE STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED WEST OF OCRACOKE INLET.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OCRACOKE INLET TO CAPE HATTERAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* OCRACOKE INLET TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER

* ALBEMARLE AND PAMLICO SOUNDS

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...

* NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS TO DUCK

it is time to introduce our readers to Hurricane Lee.

Here is the track of Hurricane Lee

Hurricane Lee Track

More of an oddity than a major threat to any populated but this Hurricane which has just been drifting around looks to merge with Maria fairly soon.
But here is where it gets really interesting.

 Maria Wind Speed Probabilities

 Hurricane Lee is shown off to the right! Is that the Fujiwhara Effect? Are they trying to merge? It looks like that. Click here for an interesting animation of how this might play out.

Fujiwhara Effect

Source

General Weather Situation

We believe that it is easier to understand what is going on with individual storms if they are put into the context of the overall weather situation.

Three day

The graphic above is particularly useful as it shows the forecasted conditions that might determine the future of a storm beyond the predictions of where the storm might be on Day 3. This graphic is updated frequently. By Day 3 Maria is off Newfoundland with Lee. That seems a bit too fast but we will see. You can see the Tropical Wave over Florida.

Additional Graphics

Day 1 Forecast Map

This is the Day 1 Forecast. You can see Tropical Storm Maria which is actually now Hurricane Maria

Day 2 Forecast

This is a Day 2 Forecast.  You can see Tropical Storm Maria.

This is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. This graphic is very relevant as one can see both storms of most interest in this graphic. .

current highs and lows

The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color coding.

Precipitation Forecast

You can see the forecast for seven days of cumulative precipitation. It is important to keep in mind that these are forecasts going forward. Precipitation that has already occurred does not show up in these forecasts but will show up in the 30 day maps we show in our weekly Weather and Climate Report. Some of these impacts show up in the September 25 Report that was published Monday evening click here to read. You can see the current QPF for Maria. Separate from Maria, we see a concerning situation for Southwest Texas. It is also tropical moisture. And Florida is now on the radar also.

 Water Vapor Imagery

The water vapor imagery is a good guide to where precipitation is occurring. One sees Hurricane Maria substantially off shore. Texas is still being hit with heavy rains of tropical origin but that seems to be easing up. New tropical disturbance south of Florida..

Click here for a list of Sig Silber's Weather Posts

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