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posted on 21 September 2017

Turks and Caicos Islands Next - 22Sep2017

Written by Sig Silber


This Article has been updated. You can access the updated article at: Bahamas Next But Reduced- Puerto Rico Impacts Continue - 22Sep2017


12:15 PM EDT Sept 22, 2017: LATEST FROM NHC: "...MARIA STILL PRODUCING 125-MPH WINDS AS IT PASSES NORTHEAST OF THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS..." "GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC."

Special Landing Graphic for Possible Hurricane Maria - Turks and Caicos


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Damage Reports from the recent impacts of Hurricane Maria start to trickle in. Here is one. And here is an impact assessment and analysis and an update from the same source.    This report is focused on Puerto Rico. Our coverage on impacts will expand as more information becomes available.

This is an active period in the tropics so we are starting with the overview of the situation in both the Pacific and the Atlantic even though right now only the Pacific presents major threats. Those potentially impacted by any of these storms should consult their local sources of information. The Public Advisories and other information that is available from the NOAA National Hurricane Center can be found here. Information from the Weather Prediction Center can be found here.

First the Atlantic

Eastern Tropical Pacific 

More Detail

Antilles

Map Source: Kmusser

And now the Pacific

Eastern Tropical Pacific

We start our Report with Hurricane Maria. The"M" Designation means a very powerful storm: Category 3 or higher.  

Tropical Depression 15

Maria Wind Speed Probabilities

Maria being impacted by vertical wind shear

Effects of vertical wind shear

Learn more about wind shear here.

And the Discussion

Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 24 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Satellite images show that the eye has become more distinct and is surrounded by a ring of deep convection. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane has penetrated the eye a couple of times this evening and the crew reported that the eye had a diameter of 35 nmi and that it has become better defined. Flight-level winds increased a little bit during the last penetration and supported an intensity of 110 or 115 kt. At this time, I prefer the keep the winds at 110 kt since the SFMR measurements were a little lower.  The central pressure is estimated at 955 mb.

The atmosphere diagnosed by the models, as well as a warm ocean along the forecast track, should favor an increase in intensity. However, most of the models, suggest that Maria will change little and will remain a category 3 hurricane for the next day or two. The NHC forecast follows the intensity consensus ICON and shows no significant change through that time. Gradual weakening should begin later in the forecast period as Maria reaches higher latitudes and cooler waters.

Satellite and reconnaissance fixes indicate that Maria is moving toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 kt. The track of the hurricane has been and will be controlled by the flow around a narrow subtropical ridge to the northeast of the hurricane. Maria is reaching the western edge of that high, and this should cause the hurricane to turn north-northwestward and then northward with no significant change in forward speed for the next 3 days. After that time, Maria should encounter the mid-latitude southwesterly flow and recurve. The reliable guidance is remarkably clustered during the next 4 days. This significantly increases the confidence in the track forecast which is in between the multi-model consensus TVCX and the HFIP corrected consensus.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Flash flood warnings continue in portions of Puerto Rico due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Everyone in Puerto Rico should continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions.

2. Swells from Maria are expected to begin reaching the coast of the southeastern United States on Friday.  These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 21.0N  70.2W  110 KT 125 MPH

12H  22/1200Z 22.0N  70.8W  110 KT 125 MPH

24H  23/0000Z 23.5N  71.5W  105 KT 120 MPH

36H  23/1200Z 25.1N  72.0W  100 KT 115 MPH

48H  24/0000Z 26.7N  72.3W   95 KT 110 MPH

72H  25/0000Z 29.3N  72.1W   90 KT 105 MPH

96H  26/0000Z 31.2N  71.0W   85 KT 100 MPH

120H  27/0000Z 33.0N  70.0W   75 KT  85 MPH

Here is the current Track Map for Jose. 

Tropical Storm Jose

Notice Jose is projected to go out to sea. Could it do a second Loop de Loop and return? Probably not as a strong storm but take a look above and below which was the prior Loop de Loop by this storm. We may not be done with Jose. The track above shows a return as a Tropical Depression. But what about after the last day shown on the Five Day Track?

Prior Jose Loop de Loop

Jose Discussion

Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number 67 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL  1100 PM AST Thu Sep 21 2017

The center of Jose has lacked deep convection for at least the past 12 hours.  The cyclone now has the structure of an extratropical cyclone, with rain persisting in a shield that is displaced well to the west and northwest of the center.  Based on this, Jose has been declared post-tropical.  Surface observations from extreme southeast New England during the past 3 hours indicate that tropical storm conditions are persisting along the coast, and the tropical storm warnings in those locations remain in place.  The National Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on Jose until the threat of tropical storm conditions along the coast has subsided.

The initial intensity has been held at 45 kt, based on a recent ASCAT pass that showed several 40-45 kt wind vectors in the NW quadrant.  No change has been made to the intensity forecast, and Jose is still expected to gradually spin down over the cold waters of the North Atlantic for the next 3 days.  Most of the global models still show the remnant low dissipating within 96 h.

Jose remains stuck in weak steering flow and has continued to drift slowly westward.  Very little change has been made to the track forecast, and all of the global models show that the cyclone will continue to meander off the New England coast until it eventually dissipates around day 4.  The NHC forecast remains close to the various track consensus aids.

Based on data from the aforementioned ASCAT pass, the wind radii were extended in the NW and NE quadrants.  However this wind appears to be primarily occurring offshore, to the east of Cape Cod.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occurring within the tropical storm warning area.  These conditions are expected to continue through tonight.

2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days.  Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices.

3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  22/0300Z 39.5N  68.4W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

12H  22/1200Z 39.6N  68.7W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

24H  23/0000Z 39.5N  69.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

36H  23/1200Z 39.3N  68.5W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

48H  24/0000Z 39.1N  67.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

72H  25/0000Z 38.8N  66.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

96H  26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

General Weather Situation

We believe that it is easier to understand what is going on with individual storms if they are put into the context of the overall weather situation.

Three day

The graphic above is particularly useful as it shows the forecasted conditions that might determine the future of a storm beyond the predictions of where the storm might be on Day 3. This graphic is updated frequently. There is still a possibility that Maria and Jose will interact at least indirectly.

Some of the graphics below show the two storms of most interest.

Day 1 Forecast Map

Day 2 Forecast

This is a Day 2 Forecast.  Notice Jose has been Downgraded but is still hanging around.

Additional Graphics

More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here.

Atmospheric Rivers

This is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. This graphic is very relevant as one can see both storms of most interest in this graphic. .

current highs and lows

The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color coding.

Precipitation Forecast

You can see the forecast for seven days of cumulative precipitation. It is important to keep in mind that these are forecasts going forward. Precipitation that has already occurred does not show up in these forecasts but will show up in the 30 day maps we show in our weekly Weather and Climate Report. That did not show up in our September 11 Report but did show up in the September 18 Report that was issued Monday evening click here to read. You can see the current QPF for Jose. The remaining precipitation is no longer extreme.

 Water Vapor Imagery

The water vapor imagery is a good guide to where precipitation is occurring. Jose seem to be impacting Cape Cod and points north right now.

Click here for a list of Sig Silber's Weather Posts

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