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posted on 10 September 2017

Tracking Irma while also Assessing Storm Impacts - 10Sep2017

Written by Sig Silber


Note: This article has been updated - Go to Tracking Irma - 10Sep2017- Special Update


11:40 AM EDT Sept 10: The radar loop for Key West has been adjusted in this Report snd a Northern Florida radar loop has also been added. Awaiting new NHC Update as things are changing very rapidly. Track might have shifted a bit more to the East.  Latest Public AdvisoryLatest Discussion. Our graphics update automatically. If the article is in your email, the graphics will still update. You can access the NHC Watches and Warnings Here. Other NHC information can be found at this link.

Special Landing Graphic for Hurricane IRMA

Irma has impacted the Lower Florida Keys and is impacting the Everglades and all of Southern Florida.

Part A will be the current weather forecasts as they involve Irma.

Part B will be the physical and human impacts of Harvey and Irma.


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Key West Radar - Composite

Remember: A radar loop shows the recent (looks like for this "loop" it shows the past forty minutes) readings leading up to the current readings so it is not a forecast. It looks like this might update every ten minutes or so.

Sorry for having to show this in a disjointed way but I do not seem to be able to capture the URL for the larger loop but here is the Northern Florida loop

Northen Florida Loop


Part A.  Here we focus on the Meteorological Aspects of the Storms impacting or potentially impacting CONUS. We attempt to keep this information up to date. We will update this information frequently and one can also access some of this information directly from NOAA here if it has Hurricane status or potential or here if it has been downgraded to a Tropical Storm. It is our goal to provide in this continually updated report the information that readers will find most useful. But those links have additional information.

For some purposes, you might want to consult our Monday Weather and Climate report as that report has additional information on the overall weather situation. You can always find the location of all of our reports by clicking here.

Let's Focus on Irma.

Latest Reported Track Forecast

Offical Irma Track

The Track shown is not a guarantee. It is a forecast and still might change and might change north of Florida also. Right now it appears that the center of the cone now goes into Alabama as well as through Western Georgia and then Tennessee and Kentucky but it will be mostly a rain event in those states with the possibility of tornadoes. Mississippi River flooding is now a concern which could impact down-river communities.

Latest Irma Discussion

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number 44 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 09 2017

Irma's nearly 24-hour traversal of the north coast of Cuba appears to have affected the hurricane's structure and intensity.  An earlier NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft and a more recent Air Force reconnaissance flight both measured maximum flight-level winds near 105 kt and surface winds near 95 kt.  The planes have reported a double eyewall structure [Editor's Note: Suggestive of an imminent Eyewall Replacement], which has also been observed in WSR-88D Doppler radar data from Miami and Key West.  Irma's intensity has been conservatively lowered to 105 kt, and I'd rather wait to lower the winds further until we've seen the full data set from the Air Force mission.

Irma has stuttered near the north coast of Cuba for the past few hours, which may be a harbinger of the north-northwestward turn that we've been waiting for.  In any event, Irma appears to be moving very slowly toward the northwest, or 305/5 kt, very gradually shifting away from the north coast of Cuba.  With the hurricane located near a break in the subtropical ridge, it should turn north-northwestward soon and accelerate near or along the west coast of Florida during the next 36-48 hours.  Because of Irma's hesitation to move northwestward, the new track guidance has shifted ever so slightly westward, and the new NHC track is just a little left of the previous one.  Although it is likely that the eye will move near or over the Lower Keys Sunday morning, the hurricane's angle of approach to the west coast of Florida makes it very difficult to pinpoint exactly where Irma will cross the Florida Gulf coast.

If an eyewall replacement occurs within the next 6-12 hours, Irma has an opportunity to restrengthen a bit while it moves across the Straits of Florida.  [Editor’s Note: We have a difference of opinion on that as per this Wikipedia discussion]. After that time, however, southwesterly shear is expected to increase to 25-30 kt in about 24 hours and then continue increasing through 48 hours.  This shear, in addition to Irma's core interacting with Florida, is likely to cause a weakening trend after 24 hours.  The new intensity guidance calls for an adjustment from the previous forecast, although it conservatively lies near the upper bound of the reliable models. Irma is still expected to approach the Florida Keys and Florida west coast as a major hurricane, and combined with its large size, will produce significant storm surge flooding in those areas.

KEY MESSAGES:

1. Irma is expected bring life-threatening wind and storm surge to the Florida Keys and southwestern Florida as an extremely dangerous major hurricane tonight through Sunday. Preparations in the Florida Keys and southwest Florida should be complete since tropical-storm-force winds are already affecting portions of the coast.

2. There is an imminent danger of life-threatening storm surge flooding in portions of central and southern Florida, including the Florida Keys, where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect. The threat of catastrophic storm surge flooding is highest along the southwest coast of Florida, where 10 to 15 feet of inundation above ground level is expected. This is a life-threatening situation, and everyone in these areas should immediately follow any evacuation instructions from local officials.

3. Irma will bring life-threatening wind impacts to much of Florida regardless of the exact track of the center. Wind hazards from Irma are also expected to spread northward through much of Georgia and portions of South Carolina and Alabama.

4. Irma is expected to produce very heavy rain and inland flooding. Total rain accumulations of 10 to 20 inches, with isolated amounts of between 20 and 25 inches, are expected over the Florida Keys, the Florida peninsula, and southeast Georgia from Saturday through Monday. Significant river flooding is possible in these areas. Early next week Irma will also bring periods of heavy rain to much of the southeast United States where an average of 2 to 6 inches is forecast, with isolated higher amounts, from North and South Carolina to Tennessee and eastern Alabama. This includes some mountainous areas which are more prone to flash flooding.  Residents throughout the southeast states should remain aware of the flood threat and stay tuned to forecasts and warnings.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  10/0300Z 23.5N  81.0W  105 KT 120 MPH

12H  10/1200Z 24.7N  81.7W  110 KT 125 MPH

24H  11/0000Z 26.8N  82.4W  105 KT 120 MPH

36H  11/1200Z 29.5N  83.4W   80 KT  90 MPH...ON THE COAST

48H  12/0000Z 32.2N  85.0W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND

72H  13/0000Z 35.3N  89.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

96H  14/0000Z 37.0N  88.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

120H  15/0000Z...DISSIPATED

Those impacted should consult their local sources of information. The Public Advisories and other information that is available from the NOAA National Hurricane Center can be found here.

Day 2 Forecast

This is a Day 2 Forecast and you can see the large area that will be potentially impacted by Irma. This forecast map shows some interesting information with respect to the types of impacts keeping the severe thunderstorms over on the east side of Florida even though the core of Irma will be on the west side of Florida. This graphic only updates once a day and has done so this morning Saturday September 10.

Current Conditions and Short-Term Forecast. The Above Information was Provided by the National Hurricane Center. Now I Present information from Other Parts of NOAA. 

Day 3 Weather Forecast

You can see Irma in this Day 3 forecast provided by the WPC. They work closely with the NHC and have access to the same information. But this graphic provides a larger picture view of the situation. The surface air pressure of this storm on Day 3 is forecast to be 998 hPa which is not impressive. That does not mean there will not be impacts. The Anticyclone further north probably contributes to the forecast that the remnants of Irma will turn northwest. There are two Low-Pressure Systems north of the High (Anticyclone) and they may not be making it easy for the High to move north. Again that is forcing the remnants of Irma west which is not the usual direction for storms to move. The NHC track shows this situation returning to normal on Wednesday as the remnants of Irma seem to be absorbed into the general circulation and start to move east.

Additional Graphics

The next set of graphics will apply increasingly to Irma as it comes closer to CONUS. One of the reasons for including these graphics is that I try not to change the graphics that I am presenting as I believe that makes it more difficult for the reader. Since it is our intention to update this article daily, I want to be as consistent was possible. You can see Irma in this Atmospheric River Graphic. It is large, already in the Gulf of Mexico, and the color is no longer off the scale shown on the right. More explanation on Atmospheric Rivers can be found by clicking here or if you want more theoretical information by clicking here.

Atmospheric Rivers

This is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. This graphic is now very relevant. The forecast continues to shift the pattern further west.

current highs and lows

The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color coding.

Precipitation Forecast

You can see the tentative forecast for cumulative precipitation for and near Florida. That is likely to be further updated frequently over the next two days. You can see continuing changes since yesterday. We are now starting to see the kind of heavy precipitation we had with Harvey being forecast for the land area. The forecast may continue to change as this graphic is updated. Storm surge and currents may be more significant with Irma than with Harvey. And of course the wind will be stronger. The heavy rain forecast is gradually shifting to the west. It is a dynamic situation. Of special interest now is the extent of the heavy rain as the storm moves over hilly terrain and more significant rivers.

 Water Vapor Imagery

The water vapor imagery is a good guide to where precipitation is occurring.

And right behind Irma: Jose which appears to be forecast to turn out to sea and may be doing a loop de loop and coming back into play. And there may be yet another storm to follow Jose but this is no means guaranteed.

Tropical Storm Jose

Eastern Pacific

Part B. The Human and Economic Impacts of Recent Storms

B1. Irma Impacts

We are showing Saint Martin Impacts as they were well reported. We are not showing other impacts because there where so many that we want to compile a more representative picture of the impacts and right now the focus needs to be on the those islands in the immediate path and Florida.

First Saint Martin especially the French portion of the Island.

Siint Martin Map Wikipedia

Hurricane Irma destroys ‘95%’ of French part of St Martin

Sept 6, 2017 Saint Martin

dd

Saint Martin Impacts September 6, 2017

Saint Martin September 6, 2017  Photo Credit. Lionel Chamoiseau/AFP/Getty Images

B2. Harvey Meteorological Summary (For Analysis Purposes Mainly)

Final NOAA Harvey Advisory.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HARVEY ADVISORY NUMBER 53 NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 02 2017

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HARVEY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION

LOCATION...38.1N 84.9W ABOUT 20 MILES...30 KM...WNW OF LEXINGTON KENTUCKY ABOUT 60 MILES...100 KM...ENE OF FORT KNOX KENTUCKY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...15 MPH...25 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 045 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...8 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB...29.92 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE ONGOING SCATTERED THROUGHOUT EASTERN TEXAS...THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HARVEY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.1 NORTH...AND LONGITUDE 84.9 WEST. HARVEY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER THE MID-UPPER OHIO VALLEY BY TONIGHT ALONG WITH ANY LINGERING HEAVY RAIN AND RUNOFF THREAT DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE CIRCULATION. HOWEVER, A SEPARATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF HARVEY WILL INTERACT WITH ITS REMNANT MOISTURE PLUME TO PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

RAINFALL...RESIDUAL FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN AND AROUND HOUSTON, BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR/ORANGE, AND EASTWARD AROUND THE LOUISIANA BORDER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL IN THE AFFECTED AREA IF YOU ARE IN A SAFE PLACE. DO NOT DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY

THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER FOR THIS SYSTEM. PLEASE REFER TO YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS STORM.

FORECAST POSITIONS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 38.1N 84.9W

12HR VT 03/0000Z 39.8N 82.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

24HR VT 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED

Harvey Final Reported Precipitation Totals as of 11AM EDT September 2, 2017. There is no longer a separate site that I know of that provides update totals and they will no longer be in the WPC Updates so most likely this will be the final update of this information. We may add local updates if significant.

And then Additional States were Impacted.

Saturday Indiana Saturday North and South Carolina
Saturday Virginia

 

New States being Impacted

Friday PM Kentucky

Friday PM Tennessee

Friday 10 AM Arkansas

 

Second Set of States Impacted (This data is as reported on Thursday 10 PM August 31.

Thurs PM Alabama Thursday PM Mississippi Florida and Georgia as of Sept 1 AM

 

Initial States Impacted (These totals are no longer being updated so they were correct as of 10 AM CDT Wednesday August 30).

Texas Precipitation Totals Friday 10 am Louisiana Precipitation Totals

 

Below is the last reported Track. There are no further updates of the track but you can tell the track by other graphics that I have included. Also the track is describe in the discussion which is up to date. We are now at the end of the reported track so this graphic is mostly of historical significance now.

Harvey Track

Interesting way to view the precipitation pattern in the Houston area.

B2: Harvey Impacts

Economic Impacts.

The usual impacts of a disaster are first very negative and later very positive and essentially reflect Keynesian Economics. Unfortunately the first phase comes first and it can be very heartbreaking. One clue to how this might work out is provided by this excellent article.

More Than 50 Percent Of Properties In Houston At High And Moderate Risk Of Flood Are Not In Designated Flood Zones

First Report on number of homes damaged. Source: Market Watch

About 100,000 homes were damaged by Hurricane Harvey, President Donald Trump's Homeland Security Adviser Tom Bossert told reporters on Thursday. Speaking at the White House, Bossert said the administration would soon ask Congress for an initial round of emergency funding to aid relief efforts. He said a second request would be made after getting more information.

Total Residential Insured And Uninsured Flood Loss For Hurricane Harvey Between $25 Billion And $37 Billion Approximately 70 Percent Of Flood Damage Is Uninsured

Oil Refinery Impacts

At the Beaumont-Port Arthur Airport, 26.03” of rain fell on Tuesday, which is more than double Beaumont's previous calendar-day record of 12.76" on May 19, 1923, in records going back to 1901. Between 10 pm last night and 1 am this morning, 11.86” fell. So far on Wednesday, 4.71” has been reported (as of 11 am CDT), bringing their 5-day storm total rainfall to a staggering 47.98”. The intense rains caused extreme flash flooding that inundated all of Port Arthur, according to Mayor Freeman, who showed a video this morning of the inside of his flooded house on his Facebook page. Port Arthur is the site of the nation’s largest oil refinery, which was forced to shut down due to the floods. The nation’s second-largest refinery, in Baytown, TX, was also forced to shut down yesterday, due to flooding-induced roof damage. In all, at least 12 refineries are currently offline due to Harvey. Source: Weather Underground Category 6  Click to Read Full Article

From this Geopolitical Futures article

Gulf Coast Refineries

The following is from our initial assessment Saturday afternoon. We will attempt to provide an organized assessment rather than streaming news reports as they come it. There is so much reporting that streaming these reports would mostly duplicate the traditional news services. So we will attempt to consolidate the information and provide a somewhat comprehensive analysis. 

Concern about Facilities that Depend on Cooling.

Arkema: No way to prevent explosion at flooded Texas chemical plant  Click to read more

Well it seems the report unfortunately was timely as this chemical plant has had explosions. You may be able to read about it here (you may hit a paywall not sure).

This is what we reported Saturday afternoon. There are many pictures showing flooding and other damage that we could show now.

Some of the graphics are very disturbing. But first we want to put this storm into perspective. This graphic was sent in by the NWS in Jackson Kentucky but was probably originally prepared by PBS.

PBS Story Histories.

It shows that very wet events are not unknown to Texas so we hope they are prepared to deal with this one.

This is a photo shown on the Blog Category 6; Image Credit is Joe Raedle/Getty Images.

Rockport Texas

Rockport is about 40 miles Northeast of Corpus Christi and presumably exposed to the strongest winds which are often in the NE quadrant of the storm. Harvey's winds declined rapidly so we should expect that wind damage now will be restricted to tornadoes which can be very deadly. The main story here will be the flooding.

Another Rockport photo

Rockport Texas Devatation

More photo coverage of Rockport can be found here. For some reason the photo credit that is on the photo in the article does not show up when I display the photo separately. It is Brian Emfinger/LSM

We should expect that damage reports may come in slowly since may areas have been evacuated and the media may not be allowed in until the areas are deemed to be save from down power lines etc.

Tornadoes will cause a lot of damage. Right now they seem to be happening in the Cypress Area Northwest of Houston while in Houston flooding has been significant.

Cypress Texas Tornado

Source: Houston News KHOU

Same source for photos below: KHOU with the first photo credited to Kyra Respress.

Houston Flooding

and one more.

Houston Flooding.

So far the reports of injured and deaths are amazingly low. That might change.

This is an excellent report from the Daily Mail in the UK - Lots of photos.

What Happens Next

It is important to understand that natural disasters often occur over a period of time, not instantaneously.

A good example is the rising of rivers which then overflow their banks and cause damage many hours and even days after the advent of a widespread storm. It takes time for this to happen and with Harvey we have a storm that is likely to provide the time for such subsequent events. Below, from NOAA, is a forecast for the San Bernard River. It is already at flood stage. Not sure how the river can rise to 35 feet once the level is so high that it can no longer be confined by the river banks but the graphic may be intended to show the severe level that is predicted. (If the normal level is x feet below the average river bank height, then all land within 35-x feet in elevation above normal water level will be flooded.)

River flood staging

Click here for a list of Sig Silber's Weather Posts

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