econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 10 October 2016

October 10, 2016 Weather and Climate Report - Normalcy Returns

Written by Sig Silber

Updated 4 PM EST October 12. Bermuda is not part of CONUS so the threat remaining for them is outside of CONUS. But Bermuda is in the Path of Nicole. Learn more here. Then hit return to return to this article. In general, according to NOAA, we have highly predictable weather ahead this week with a hint of a mild La Nina. Those who like snow may soon get their wish fulfilled. Overall according to NOAA this week will be about as normal as one can expect. The analogs raise some questions in my mind about the level of confidence that NOAA has expressed in their forecast but not enough to conclude that the forecast will not play out pretty much as issued.

 weather.caption

This past week of intense tropical activity in the Pacific and Atlantic is pretty much over other than Hurricane Nicole which threatens Bermuda. Notice there is not a lot of separation between the storm track and Bermuda. Not sure if an out-to-sea storm also has a strong NE Quadrant as would be the case if such a storm was approaching the East Coast from further east of the Coast. There may also be some issues re the ability of existing models to predict the strength of storms in that area as they may not have been calibrated to do so.

Impact on Bermuda

If this map does not update you can get an updated map by clicking here.

We have been running an Update Report on the Status of Cyclonic Activity in the Atlantic and Pacific all week. Not sure how long we will continue to update that report but it can be found here. (If you wish to take a look, please after you have taken a look hit your Return Key to return to this Weekly Weather and Climate Report.) The weekly report is also updated as needed but rarely beyond Tuesday which is why we published a separate Storm Update Report this week. The way the web site works it is not easy to update the title of a report once published so you have to click on it to see what has changed as there are few clues in the title. The risk to Bermuda appears to be through Thursday and if that risk goes away and there are no new storms to be concerned about in the Atlantic or Pacific we will stop updating the Update Report and it will be repurposed soon after October 20 to cover the NOAA Seasonal Outlook. But for the next few days, if Bermuda remains in the track of Nicole, the Update Report will be updated. You can always be assured that GEI will attempt to keep its readers informed.

A. Focus on Alaska and CONUS (all U.S. except Hawaii) - Let's Focus on the Current (Right Now to 5 Days Out) Weather Situation.

First, this graphic provides a good indication of where the moisture is. It is a bit different than just moisture imagery as it is quantitative.

 Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps/UCSD.

Image credit:Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes, Scripps/UCSD.  More explanation can be found at Atmospheric Rivers (Click to read full Weather Underground Dr. Bob Henson article)

To turn the above into a forecasting tool click here. and you will have a dashboard for a forecasting model.

Notice that there is not a lot of moisture around CONUS.

Here is a national animation of weather fronts and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at links provided below.

current highs and lows

The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color coding.

U.S.  3 Day to  7 Day Forecasts

I have changed things up a bit and the below is a Day 3 Forecast not the Day 6 Forecast I usually present. It highlights the forecasted surface Highs and the Lows re air pressure on Day 3. The Day 6 forecast can be found here.

Day 3 Weather Forecast

Earlier today the forecasted Aleutian Low (in the Gulf of Alaska) had an hPa of 980 (the average in the winter is 1001 hPa and 994 hPa for a non-split Low). It was a non-split low. The graphic changes every six hours. Now this evening I see a split low. The larger part in the Gulf of Alaska has a more moderate central low of 998 hPa. It looks a look like what one might see with an El Nino and think about that when you get to the discussion of analogs re the 6 - 14 Day Forecast. At any rate this Low is what is creating the incoming moist air to the Northwest. 
The High Pressure off of California, the familiar RRR, is here and quite large but weak at 1020 hPa. The RRR continues to do a good job of protecting the West Coast from Pacific storms and also providing northerly winds for California. But it is being pushed out to sea by the Aleutian Low taking a Mid-Tropical excursion. I provided this  K - 12 write up that provides a simple explanation on the importance of semipermanent Highs and Lows and another link that discussed possible changes in the patterns of these highs and lows which could be related to a Climate Shift (cycle) in the Pacific or Global Warming. Remember this is a forecast for Day 3. It is not the current situation but Day 3 is not very far out.

You can enlarge the below daily (days 3 - 7) weather maps for CONUS only by clicking on Three Day or  Four Day or Five Day or Day Six or Day Seven

Short term forecasts

Here is the seven day precipitation forecast. More information is available here.

Seven Day WPC Quantitative precipitation forecast

What you are seeing here is projected a major precipitation event for the Northwest and some activity over the Great Lakes.

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 7-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients.This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA's latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot. Because "Thickness Lines" are shown by those green lines on this graphic, it is a good place to define "Thickness" and its uses. The 540 Level general signifies equal chances for snow at sea level locations. We now see the 540 line thinking about entering CONUS in the Extreme Northwest. Welcome to Fall. It is ski time. Remember that 540 relates to sea level. Inland from the Northwest you re above sea level so snow is likely.     

7 Day 500 MB Geopotential Forecast

Thinking about clockwise movements around High Pressure Systems and counter- clockwise movements around Low Pressure Systems provides a lot of information.
What you can see very clearly in the above is the progression of the Western and Great Lakes Troughs and a Northeast Ridge.

The graphic below is the Eastern Pacific a 24 hr loop of recent readings. It does a good job of showing what is going on right now. The southwest winds approaching Baja California are of some interest.

Eastern Pacific

The graphic below (which is a bit redundant with the above) updates automatically so it most likely will look different by the time you look at it as the tropical weather patterns unlike the patterns north of 30N are generally moving from east to west. This graphic highlights tropical activity. Unlike the above which shows recent history, the below graphic is a satellite image with the forecast of tropical events superimposed on the satellite image. There is no significant "new" tropical activity forecast for this week that would appear to impact CONUS..

Eastern Pacific Tropical Storms

Below is the current water vapor Imagery for North America. 

 Water Vapor Imagery

Tonight, Monday evening October 10, 2016 (and this is the current situation not an animation of recent history), as I am looking at the above graphic, there is not much activity. Water vapor imagery is a bit different than the above two graphics as it focuses on the water vapor in clouds rather than the clouds themselves.

Looking at the current activity of the Jet Stream.

One sees a lot of activity across the Northern Tier. There is also a part of split stream activity just above Baja California but the local forecasters are not seeing that as producing much in the way of precipitation. The sub-Jetstream level intensity winds shown by the vectors in this graphic are very important.

Current Jet StreamBelow is the forecast out five days.

 Now let's look at the situation on Day 5 below.

Jet Stream Five Days Out

It is kind of a split jet stream often associated with the Inactive Phase of the MJO.
Not all weather is controlled by the Jet Stream (which is a high altitude phenomenon) but it does play a major role in steering storm systems. In some cases however a Low-Pressure System becomes separated or "cut off" from the Jet Stream. In that case it's movements may be more difficult to predict until that disturbance is again recaptured by the Jet Stream. That may be about to happen North of Maine but that would have no impact on CONUS weather and cut-off lows usually occur at lower latitudes. The shifting towards the Equator of the Jet Stream in the Eastern Pacific may be a sort of Rex Block situation but that is usually caused by a High being north of a Low and I do not see the High.

To see how the pattern is projected to evolve,  please click here. In addition to the shaded areas which show an interpretation of the Jet Stream, one can also see the wind vectors (arrows) at the 300 Mb level.

This longer animation shows how the jet stream is crossing the Pacific and when it reaches the U.S. West Coast is going every which way.

When we discuss the jet stream and for other reasons, we often discuss different layers of the atmosphere. These are expressed in terms of the atmospheric pressure above that layer. It is kind of counter-intuitive to me. The below table may help the reader translate air pressure to the usual altitude and temperature one might expect at that level of air pressure. It is just an approximation but useful.

air pressure and altitude
Re the above, H8 is a frequently used abbreviation for the height of the 850 millibar level, H7 is the 700 mb level, H5 is the 500 mb level, H3 is the 300 mb level. So if you see those abbreviations in a weather forecast you will know what they are talking about.

Click here to gain access to a very flexible computer graphic. You can adjust what is being displayed by clicking on "earth" adjusting the parameters and then clicking again on "earth" to remove the menu. Right now it is set up to show the 500 hPa wind patterns which is the main way of looking at synoptic weather patterns. This amazing graphic covers North and South America.

Four- Week Outlook

I am going to show the three-month OND Outlook (for reference purposes), the Updated Outlook for the single month of October, the 6 - 10 Day and 8 - 14 Day Maps and the Week 3 -  4 Experimental Outlook. 

First - Temperature

Here is the Three-Month OND Temperature Outlook issued on September 15, 2015, 2016:

OND Temperature Outlook Issued on September 15, 2016

Here is the Temperature Outlook for October which was updated on September 30, 2016

October Updated Temperature Outlook Issued on September`30, 2016

 6 - 10 Day Temperature Outlook

6 - 10 Day Temperature Outlook

8 - 14 Day Temperature Outlook   

8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

Looking further out.

Experimental Week 3-4 Temperature Outlook

As I view these maps on October 10 (two of the five update each day and one (the Week 3 - 4 Outlook) updates every Friday), it appears that through November 4, the pattern during the middle of October will be warm for all but the West Coast with a mid-Latitude cool anomaly possibly related to where the Jet Stream is entering CONUS. That pattern is expected to continue as October ends and November begins except that the extreme Southeast will be EC and the West Coast cool anomaly will be gone and it all will be EC. Alaska starts out being warm in the north and gradually become generally warm throughout the period. Warm with respect to anomalies means warmer than usual for this time of year and cool with respect to anomalies means cooler than usual for this time of the year.

Now - Precipitation 

Here is the three-month OND Precipitation Outlook issued on September 15, 2016 :

OND Precipitation Outlook Issued on September 15, 2016

And here is the Updated Outlook for October Precipitation Issued on September 30, 2016

October 2016 Updarted Precipitation Outlook Issued on September 30, 2016

6 - 10 Day Precipitation Outlook

6 - 10 Day Precipitation Outlook

8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook 

Current 8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

Weeks 3 and 4 Experimental Forecast..

As I view these maps on October 10 (two of the five update each day and one (the Week 3 - 4 Outlook) updates every Friday), it looks like precipitation leading up to November 4 is tending for the middle of October to be mostly a wet northern tier with the Northwest being the focal point and a mostly dry southern tier with the focal point being Oklahoma and Texas. The pattern is projected to evolve in the lost week of October heading into November to be one with a smaller Northwest wet anomaly, a Florida wet anomaly and a dry anomaly stretching from Eastern Texas north and slightly northeast to the Great Lakes. Alaska will start dry and morph to EC. Everywhere else is forecast to be EC.

Here is the NOAA discussion released today October 10, 2016.

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 16 - 20 2016

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA  CIRCULATION PATTERN PREDICTED OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. ALL MODEL 500-HPA HEIGHT FORECASTS AGREE ON A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA, WITH NEGATIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC INTO THE U.S. PACIFIC NORTHWEST. 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE PREDICTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTH PACIFIC FROM JUST SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS, THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST BY ALL MODELS OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA AND REMAINING AREAS OF THE CONUS EXCEPT THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS BY ALL ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS AND VIRTUALLY ALL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. UNDER BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED TROUGH, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE PREDICTED OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE WESTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE CONUS UNDER A PREDICTED RIDGE AND ABOVE NORMAL 500-HPA HEIGHTS. 

UNDER ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW BEHIND THE PREDICTED TROUGH AXIS, BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR ALASKA, EXCEPT FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED TROUGH OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC, ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS VERY LIKELY FOR THE WESTERN CONUS, AND MOST LIKELY FOR MOST OF THE NORTHERN  HALF OF THE CONUS, FROM THE PACIFIC COAST TO THE GREAT LAKES REGION, AS WELL AS FROM THE WESTERN GULF COAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED  RIDGE, BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY FOR THE EAST COAST AND  SOUTHEAST. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: WELL ABOVE AVERAGE, 5 OUT OF 5, DUE TO VERY GOOD MODEL AND TOOL AGREEMENT.   

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR OCT 18 - 24 2016 

THE 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN FORECAST FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD IS FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD FORECAST, WITH WEAKER ANOMALIES DURING WEEK 2, DUE TO INCREASING UNCERTAINTY. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BE MOST LIKELY FOR MUCH OF THE CONUS, UNDER ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH A PREDICTED RIDGE, EXCEPT FOR PARTS OF THE WEST WHERE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE MORE LIKELY. PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION HAVE WEAKENED FOR THE WEST, AS FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES, BUT REMAIN MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CONUS AND PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. 

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: ABOVE AVERAGE, 4 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE MODELS AND TOOLS, WITH INCREASING UNCERTAINTY APPARENT FROM GREATER ENSEMBLE AND MODEL SPREAD.   

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON  OCTOBER 20

Some might find this analysis interesting as the organization which prepares it focuses on the Pacific Ocean and looks at things from a very detailed perspective and their analysis provides a lot of information on the history and evolution of ENSO events.

Analogs to the Outlook.

Now let us take a detailed look at the "Analogs" which NOAA provides related to the 5 day period centered on 3 days ago and the 7 day period centered on 4 days ago. "Analog" means that the weather pattern then resembles the recent weather pattern and was used in some way to predict the 6 - 14 day Outlook.

Here are today's analogs in chronological order although this information is also available with the analog dates listed by the level of correlation. I find the chronological order easier for me to work with. There is a second set of analogs associated with the Outlook but I have not been regularly analyzing this second set of information. The first set which is what I am using today applies to the 5 and 7 day observed pattern prior to today. The second set, which I am not using, relates to the correlation of the forecasted outlook 6 - 10 days out with similar patterns that have occurred in the past during the dates covered by the 6 - 10 Day Outlook. The second set of analogs may also be useful information but they put the first set of analogs in the discussion with the second set available by a link so I am assuming that the first set of analogs is the most meaningful and I find it so.

Day

ENSO

Phase

PDO AMO

Other Comments

Oct 17, 1951 El Nino - -  
Sept 30, 1954 La Nina +(t) -  
Oct 1, 1954 La Nina +(t) -  
Oct 19, 1957 El Nino +(t) +  
Oct 22, 1957 El Nino +(t) +(t)  
Oct 13, 1983 La Nina + - Following the strong 82/83 El Nino
Sept 24 1984 La Nina +(t) - Following the strong 82/83 El Nino
Oct 12, 2002 El Nino + + Modoki Type I

 

(t) = a month where the Ocean Cycle Index has just changed or does change the following month.

One thing that jumped out at me right away was the spread among the analogs from September 24 to October 22 which is twenty eight days which is a fairly large spread. I have not calculated the centroid of this distribution which would be the better way to look at things but the midpoint, which is a lot easier to calculate, is about October 8. These analogs are centered on 3 days and 4 days ago (October 6 or 7). So the analogs could be considered in sync with the calendar meaning that we will be getting weather that normally would occur this time of the year including that forecasted Western trough which is typical this time of the year.

I think NOAA would appreciate it if I said that these analogs are not a substitute for their very sophisticated forecasting software and I am not suggesting that they are. I present them partially for curiosity purposes but also to see how current conditions correlate with medium and low frequency cycles. The medium frequency cycle I track is ENSO and the two low- frequency cycles I track are the PDO and AMO. When I see that forecasts are consistent with the current phases of these cycles (as represented by the analogs), that seems very suggestive to me that our weather is probably fairly easy to forecast. If the analogs are all over the place then I have to wonder if the forecasts are good or if our weather is just not related to these cycles. That certainly can be the case. So I am doing some research here and you are seeing how I look at things. I hope you find it interesting.

There are this time four El Nino Analogs (why are there any?), four La Nina Analogs, and zero ENSO Neutral Analogs. The phases of the ocean cycles in the analogs point towards McCabe Conditions "A" and" C". They are opposites and the 6 - 14 Day Forecast is not consistent with either one so I have less confidence in the 6 - 14 Day Forecast than NOAA. And having both El Nino and La Nina analogs raises many questions. 

The seminal work on the impact of the PDO and AMO on U.S. climate can be found here. Water Planners might usefully pay attention to the low-frequency cycles such as the AMO and the PDO as the media tends to focus on the current and short-term forecasts to the exclusion of what we can reasonably anticipate over multi-decadal periods of time. One of the major reasons that I write this weather and climate column is to encourage a more long-term and World view of weather.

McCabe Maps modified to include the subtitles

You may have to squint but the drought probabilities are shown on the map and also indicated by the color coding with shades of red indicating higher than 25% of the years are drought years (25% or less of average precipitation for that area) and shades of blue indicating less than 25% of the years are drought years. Thus drought is defined as the condition that occurs 25% of the time and this ties in nicely with each of the four pairs of two phases of the AMO and PDO.

Historical Anomaly Analysis

When I see the same dates showing up often I find it interesting to consult this list.

Recent CONUS Weather

This is provided mainly to see the pattern in the weather that has occurred in recent months. Because it is now the beginning of October, I have now removed the July and August Graphics.

Here is the 30 Days ending October 1, 2016

October 1, 2016 30 Day temperature and precipitation departures.

This gives us a comparison with last week (remember only 7 of the 30 days are changed with a 30 day average that is updated weekly but it also gives us a complete picture for September. Compared to the prior 30 day average I do not see important changes (the reader's eyes may be better than mine) but the warm anomaly does seem to have spread west a bit. California remains in trouble other than the part of California that shares in the Monsoon or Monsoon related tropical events. 

And the 30 Days ending October 8, 2016

October 8, 2016 30 Day temperature and precipitation departures.

The Precipitation and Temperature departures are almost identical.  We should keep in mind that this represents the addition of seven recent days and the removal of seven more distant days  but still the lack of change is amazing. One change I see is to the Northwest. More careful study of the graphics might reveal more changes.

NOAA updated their Seasonal Outlook on September 15. We reported on that on Sunday Sept 18. You can read that report here. If you opt to go read my Report on NOAA's Seasonal Outlook Update, please return from there to read this report which you can do by simply hitting your "backspace" button on your keyboard.

B. Beyond Alaska and CONUS Let's Look at the World which of Course also includes Alaska and CONUS

World Weather Forecast produced by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Unfortunately I do not know how to extract the control panel and embed it into my report so that you could use the tool within my report. But if you visit it Click Here you will be able to use the tool to view temperature or many other things for THE WORLD. It can forecast out for a week. Pretty cool. Return to this report by hitting your "backspace" key which may require hitting it a few times depending on how deep you are into the BOM tool.

Although I can not display the interactive control panel in my article, I can display any of the graphics it provides so below are the current worldwide precipitation and temperature forecasts for three days out. They will auto-update and be current for Day 3 whenever you view them. If you want the forecast for a different day Click Here

Precipitation

BOM World Preciptation  Wednesday

Temperature

BOM Current Temperature Wedensday

But I know how to display the precipitation forecast from Queensland Australia and here it is.

Queensland Oct - Dec  Preipitation Forecast.

It is kind of amazing that you can make a worldwide forecast based on just one parameter the SOI and changes in the SOI. Notice that the rising SOI triggers a lot of wet around the World. Look for low grain prices.

JAMSTEC issued their Precipitation Forecast recently but it is based on the September 1 ENSO analysis. I show it because it is the most recent forecast we have received from JAMSTEC.

JAMSTEC Precipitation Forecast from September 1, 2016 ENSO Model Run

Recognizing that we are now at October 10 and this forecast is based on September 1 Model Runs, it is still pretty interesting especially for Northern South America, Eastern Asia and Africa, the Maritime Continent and the Mediterranean.

Just to be complete I will show their temperature forecast

JAMSTEC SON Temperature Forecast based on September 1, 2016 Model Runs.

The UK will be cool, and maybe Venezuela, and Eastern Siberia will be good for snowshoeing. Then there is northern Argentina. and Uruguay. Other than that, Global Warming Deniers might have to seek higher elevations.

Here is the discussion that does with it.

Sep. 21, 2016  Prediction from 1st Sep., 2016

ENSO forecast:

The SINTEX-F model predicts a La Niña Modoki/weak La Niña state [Editor's Note: A La Nina State or Condition is not the same as a La Nina event because it takes a sufficient duration for a period of La Nina conditions to be declared to be a La Nina Event] will reach the peak in the boreal fall. Then, the tropical Pacific will return to a normal state by boreal spring. The model prediction is so far consistent with the observed evolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies.

Indian Ocean forecast:

The model has successfully predicted the negative IOD as observed in recent SST anomalies. The 2016 negative IOD will reach the peak in the boreal fall. It will bring a wetter-than-normal (drier-than-normal) condition over the eastern (western) side of the Indian Ocean; there is high possibility of floods in the region near Sumatra and Java. On the other hand, we warn dry conditions in East African countries.

Regional forecast:

In boreal fall, as a seasonally averaged view, most part of the globe will experience a warmer-than-normal condition, while some parts of northern Brazil will experience a colder-than-normal condition.

According to the seasonally averaged rainfall prediction, eastern China, Indo-China, East Africa, and parts of southern Africa might experience a drier condition during boreal fall, while most parts of Indonesia, northern South America (including Colombia, Ecuador, and northwestern Brazil), southern West Africa, and western Central Africa will experience a wetter-than-normal condition; this may be mostly due to the negative IOD and the weak La Niña. Because of those climate conditions, Australia will receive above normal rainfall during austral summer. Most part of Japan will experience above normal temperature and above normal precipitation in fall, particularly in the western part of Japan.

Our monthly predictions fluctuate much in mid- and high- latitudes. The forecast skills in those latitudes on regional scales are still limited; predictions in those regions should be used carefully.

Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Departures from Normal for this Time of the Year i.e. Anomalies

My focus here is sea surface temperature anomalies as they are one of the two largest factors determining weather around the World.

And when we look at the current Sea Surface anomalies below, we see a lot of them not just along the Equator related to ENSO. The graphic issued Sunday differs greatly along the Equator in the Eastern Pacific from what I saw Saturday so I do not know if the Oceans Changed or NOAA changed.

Daily SST Anomaly

Remember this discussion is all about anomalies not absolute temperatures...so it is deviation from seasonal norms.
The waters off of Japan remain warm but perhaps not as warm. South of Kamchatka Siberia the color on the graphic is less intense. The Indian Ocean is now basically all cool. The southern coast of Australia is cool but the Southeast Coast is warm. Water northwest of Australia is warm but not very warm. The waters south of Africa are warm to the west but a bit cool to the east. It is overall more cool than recently.
The overall Northern Pacific looks to be PDO Positive (the horseshoe pattern with the cool anomaly inside the horseshoe shape there but not very prominent). The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) Index rose to 2.4 in March which with El Nino fading may be significant. It was up to 2.62 in April but eased to 2.35 in May and then to +0.78 in June and then down to +0.18 for July and then recorded a negative value of -.66 for August and the July value was adjusted to +0.11. That would make the PDO now NEGATIVE. But it may record positive for September  but I have not seen that report yet. The question remains about the PDO. Is it acting independently of the El Nino or is this the change from PDO- to PDO+ (until August) which would signal a multi-decadal change in the Pacific. I anticipated that the PDO would turn negative as the La Nina gained control and it has. But is that just temporary.  Here is the list of PDO values. The waters west of CONUS are now slightly cool especially off of Baja. This is not a good sign for a wet winter for mid latitudes. Further north, the Gulf of Alaska is quite warm. The Pacific being warm north of 40N remains the most impressive feature of the overall pattern and suggests a wet Northwest and northern tier U.S. this winter. To repeat, the water off of Baja California is no longer warm and that is why cyclones moving up the west coast have dissipated rapidly.
The Black sea, the Caspian sea and the Mediterranean are warm.
The water directly west of South America is not showing much of a strong La Nina pattern even though NOAA is not noticing that much. There is a narrow cool anomaly in the Pacific right along the Equator in the La Nina Measurement Area. Recently it has appeared to be more robust though still gradually stretching west where it had crossed the Dateline but seems to have withdrawn on this graphic. It is perhaps a La Nina pattern but too weak yet to qualify as an official La Nina and probably will remain borderline La Nina through the winter.  It may ultimately turn out to be a La Nina Modoki i.e. shifted to the west more than the typical La Nina. The water off the West Coast of Central America is warm.
The water off the East Coast of CONUS is warm covering a large area. The Western Gulf of Mexico is warm. Further north in the Atlantic east of Newfoundland the North Atlantic is warmer than normal. The cool anomaly further south again shows and seem to be enlarging. There is a warm anomaly off shore of Northwest Africa. The waters north of Antarctica East of South America are uniformly colder than climatology and we again see the small warm anomaly north of that pattern.
I have some additional commentary on this static analysis of the anomalies below where I examine the four-week change in these anomalies. The list of Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) values can be found here.
Since these are "departures" or "anomalies", it is not a seasonal pattern that is being shown it is the changes from what we would expect on a seasonal basis. It is important to understand that and interpret my comments above in the context of anomalies not absolute temperatures.

Below I show the changes over the last month in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies.

Comparing a four-week graphic to a prior four-week graphic is always tricky since only 25% of the data has changed and I am not showing the former graphic (it is in last week's report). I add the new one to my draft report, compare and comment on the change and then delete the old one to keep this report to a manageable size. Also it is important to recognize that what you see in this graphic is the change in the anomaly. So blue means either cooler or less warm. Red means warmer or less cool. So you have to refer to the graphic above this one to really interpret this graphic as what we are seeing here is the change in the anomalies. What we see in this graphic is four weeks of change not the current absolute anomalies which are shown in the above graphic. It is not derivatives in the mathematical sense but deltas. They are somewhat similar. The graphic above this one has no time component. It is simply the deviation from climatology and this graphic below shows the four week change in the deviation from climatology. So it is a bit like the first (graphic above) and second (graphic below) derivatives but not exactly. I take it a step further by comparing this week's version of the graphic to the prior week and report on the differences below.  

xOctober 10, 2016 four week change in SST Departures.

What I see as I look at both last week's version of this graphic and the current one (before deleting the prior version) is an overall cooling trend along the Equatorial Pacific lending credence to there being a La Nina developing. Other features are cooling south of Africa, more warming southeast of Australia more warming of the east coast of North America above 40N so that is north of Bermuda. The Gulf of Alaska is cooling. I have not seen the September PDO Index reading but this looks less PDO Positive to me. The waters of Scandinavia look like they are warming also. Remember we are talking about changes in the anomalies something like a second derivative so you have to refer to the graphic above this one to know if blue is cool or less warm and if red is warm or less cool.  

Look at the Western Pacific in Motion.`

Western Pacific Tropical Activity

The above graphic which I believe covers the area from the Dateline west to 100E and from the Equator north to 45N `normally shows the movement of tropical storms towards Asia in the lower latitudes (Trade Winds) and the return of storms towards CONUS in the mid-latitudes (Prevailing Westerlies). This is recent data in motion (last 24 hours) not a forecast. But it provides a pretty good idea of what is heading towards Southeast Asia and the Maritime Continent. It also shows what is headed back towards CONUS.Right now we see another Typhoon headed for Asia. But it is expect to turn north and go back out to sea. Information on Western Pacific storms can be found here. This is an unofficial private source but one that is easy to read.

Below is an analysis of projected tropical hazards and benefits over an approximately two-week period. This graphic is scheduled to update on Tuesday and I am reading the October 4, 2016 Version and looking at Week 2 of that forecast.
Tropical Hazards

Mostly for the period October 12, 2016 to October 18, 2016, I see in week two that it will be likely wet for the Maritime Continent with a risk of cyclone development east of Indochina.
This graphic updates on Tuesdays and when it did on September 25, the risk to the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico was shown as Week 2 and now shows up as Week 1. I rarely comment here on week one as I publish late on a Monday and most read the report Tuesday afternoon more or less when this graphic updates so what I see as Week 1 is gone by then and what I discuss as Week 2 is updated and shown as the new Week 1. I could go back into my article late on Tuesday and update the above discussion but I think that readers can interpret this graphic on their own after it updates as the Legend is very easy to understand.

C. Progress of the Cool ENSO Event

A major driver of weather is Surface Ocean Temperatures. Evaporation only occurs from the Surface of Water. So we are very interested in the temperatures of water especially when these temperatures deviate from seasonal norms thus creating an anomaly. The geographical distribution of the anomalies is very important.
To a substantial extent, the temperature anomalies along the Equator have disproportionate impact on weather so we study them intensely and that is what the ENSO (El Nino - Southern Oscillation) cycle is all about
Subsurface water can be thought of as the future surface temperatures. They may have only indirect impacts on current weather but they have major impacts on future weather by changing the temperature of the water surface.
Winds and Convection (evaporation forming clouds) is weather and is a result of the Phases of ENSO and also a feedback loop that perpetuates the current Phase of ENSO or changes it. That is why we monitor winds and convection along or near the Equator especially the Equator in the Eastern Pacific. 

Starting with Surface Conditions.

TAO/TRITON GRAPHIC (a good way of viewing data related to the part of the Equator and the waters close to the Equator in the Eastern Pacific  where we monitor to determining the current phase of ENSO. It is probably not necessary to follow the discussion below, but here is a link to TAO/TRITON terminology.

I have deleted many of the TAO/TRITON graphics we looked at when we were watching El Nino develop and decline. But I saved this one which was close to the maximum. It was not the maximum but it was the one that I froze which was the closest to the maximum that I saved. It is useful for comparing the current situation with the pattern that prevailed near the peak of the El Nino this past winter. Since most of my graphics auto-update,  in order to be able to view a prior version of a particular graphic, I "freeze it" by basically cut and paste to a graphics file and then embed that "frozen graphic" in my article.

January 19, 2016 Frozen TAU/TRITON Graphic

And here is the current version of the TAO/TRITON Graphic.

The above should be compared to the bottom part of the following graphic. Notice the pattern is remarkably similar. The difference is that in January, the anomaly was a warm anomaly stretching from 130W to 160W and now it is a cool anomaly. When it was a warm anomaly, it was a 3C anomaly in the center ring. Now the center ring is a -1C anomaly. So this is opposite to last winter but the intensity is a third or less of the situation last winter.

Current SST and wind anomalies

Location Bar for Nino 3.4 Area Above and Below
------------------------------------------------  A       B       C      D       E       -----------------

 

The below table which only looks at the Equator shows the extent of anomalies along the Equator. I had split the table to show warm, neutral, and cool anomalies. The top rows showed El Nino anomalies. When there were no more El Nino anomalies along the Equator, I eliminated those rows. The two rows just below that break point contribute to ENSO Neutral and after another break, the rows are associated with La Nina conditions. I have changed the reference date to May 23, 1016.

Comparing Now to May 23, 2016

Subareas of the Anomaly

Westward Extension Eastward Extension Degrees of Coverage

As of Today

May 23, 2016

As of Today

May 23 2016

As of Today

In Nino 3.4

May 23, 2016

These Rows Show the Extent of ENSO Neutral Impacts on the Equator
0.5C or cooler Anomaly*

160E

155E

Land

155W

105

50

50
0C or cooler Anomaly

170E

155W

LAND

Land

95

50

60
These Rows Show the Extent of the La Nina Impacts on the Equator
-0.5C or cooler

180W

145W

LAND

Land

85

50

50
-1C or cooler Anomaly

170W

140W

LAND

105W

75

50

35
-1.5C or cooler Anomaly

165W

135W

150W

120W

15

15

0

 

If you just look on the Equator, there are 50 degrees of Longitude of Neutral to La Nina anomalies which is the maximum possible as the ONI Measurement Area is 50 degrees of Longitude wide and that also is the maximum possible since the ENSO Measurement Area only stretches for 50 degrees. There are 50 degrees of water anomalies cool enough to be a La Nina. Subtracting 50 degrees from the 50 degrees you end up with 0 degrees of ENSO Neutral and 50 degrees of water cool enough to qualify as La Nina i.e. temperature anomalies more negative than -0.5C. There 50 degrees of water along the Equator in the ONI Measurement that is even -1C or less which would be cool enough to be a moderate La Nina when just looking at the Equator and there are 10 degrees of -1.5C water. The ONI Measurement Area extends 5 degrees of Latitude North and South of the Equator so the above table is just a guide and a way of tracking the changes. Away from the Equator it is generally warmer when a La Nina is trying to get started. The water from 3N to 5N and from 3S to 5S had until recently remained relatively warm especially west of 150W. But now the warm area has shifted to being east of 130W. It is actually El Nino warm which is not saying we are having an El Nino just that the warm water is squeezing the cool event into Neutral.
The cool anomaly appears to be much larger this week which may be correct or it may be that TAO-TRITON may not have been fully functional last week.
If you look at the TAO/TRITON graphic and the table above,  it appears that this cool event is shifting from east to west and becoming an Modoki,

I calculate the current value of the ONI index (really the value of NINO 3.4 as the ONI is not reported as a daily value) each week using a method that I have devised. To refine my calculation, I have divided the 170W to 120W Nino 3.4 measuring area into five subregions (which I have designated from west to east as A through E) with a location bar shown under the TAO/TRITON Graphic). I use a rough estimation approach to integrate what I see below and record that in the table I have constructed. Then I take the average of the anomalies I estimated for each of the five subregions. So as of Monday October 10, in the afternoon working from the October 9 TAO/TRITON report, this is what I calculated. [Although the TAO/TRITON Graphic appears to update once a day, in reality it updates more frequently.]

Calculation of ONI from TAO/TRITON Graphic
Anomaly Segment Estimated Anomaly
  Last Week This Week
A. 170W to 160W -0.5 -1.1
B. 160W to 150W -0.4 -1.1
C. 150W to 140W -0.5 -1.1
D. 140W to 130W -0.3 -0.9
E. 130W to 120W -0.1 -1.0
Total -1.8 -5.2
Total divided by five subregions i.e. the ONI (-1.8)5 = -0.4 (-5.2)/5= -1.0

 

My estimate of the daily Nino 3.4 SST anomaly has fallen to -1.0 which is an ENSO La Nina value.  NOAA has reported the weekly ONI to be -0.9 which is slightly cooler than they reported last week and also very much a La Nina value. This week my estimate and their estimate are similar.
Nino 4.0 is reported as being slightly  cooler than last week at -0.6.  Nino 3 is being reported a quite a bit cooler at -0.6.   Nino 1 + 2 which extends from the Equator south rather than being centered on the Equator is being reported quite a bit cooler at +0.1. El Nino is not measured in Nino 1 + 2 but is part of the picture of the main change this week is the cooling of the Eastern Pacific. 
I am only showing the currently issued version of the NINO SST Index Table as the prior values are shown in the small graphics on the right with this graphic. The same data in table form but going back a couple of more years can be found here.  NINO 1+ 2 stubbornly remains slightly positive and determines the weather of Ecuador and Peru.

October 10, 2016 Nino Readings

Sea Surface Temperature and Anomalies

It is the ocean surface that interacts with the atmosphere and causes convection and also the warming and cooling of the atmosphere. So we are interested in the actual ocean surface temperatures and the departure from seasonal normal temperatures which is called "departures" or "anomalies". Since warm water facilitates evaporation which results in cloud convection, the pattern of SST anomalies suggests how the weather pattern east of the anomalies will be different than normal.

Oct 10, 2016 Equatorial Pacific SST Anomalies

A major advantage of the Hovmoeller method of displaying information is that it shows the history so I do not need to show a sequence of snap shots of the conditions at different points in time. This Hovmoeller provides a good way to visually see the evolution of this ENSO event.  I have decided to use the prettied-up version that comes out on Mondays rather that the version that autoupdates daily because the SST Departures on the Equator do not change rapidly and the prettied-up version is so much easier to read. You can see that the blue cool anomaly has again moved further west and the dark blue which was not showing last week (look up a tad) is now again showing at the bottom which means the current reading. You can see that the yellow ENSO Neutral water in the Eastern Pacific has been replaced by blue that is what is new and important. This graphic explains to a large extent the week to week changes in the Nino 3.4 Index Reading. Remember the +5, -5 degree strip around the Equator that is being measured. So it is the surface but not just the Equator.

I thought it would be useful to show this view which is more focused on the Equator but looks down to 300 meters rather than just being the surface. Here you can clearly see the cool blob (darker blue) at 170W to 155W which is the focus of this cool event. Does 10 to 15 degrees of Latitude make a La Nina? This could all be an issue of seasonal adjustments or the every five year trend adjustment. It is clear that the Eastern Pacific is cooling as the cool subsurface water rises but that does not enter into the Nino 3.4 Index measurement. But we can see a small blob at about 130W and that may be making the difference this week. It is subtle but makes a difference. One can also see the continual shift to the west which is also subtle.

October 10, 2016  Upper Ocean Heat Content

Let us further look at the Subsurface Water Temperatures.

Equatorial Subsurface Analysis

We are now going to change the way we look at a three-dimensional view of the Equator and move from the surface view and an average of the subsurface heat content to a more detailed view from the surface down.

Current Sub-Surface Conditions.  Notice by the date of the graphic that the lag in getting this information posted so the current situation may be a bit different than shown. The date shown is the midpoint of a five-day period with that date as the center of the five-day period.

And now the pair of graphics that I regularly provide.

Subsurface Heat Anomalies

The above pair of graphics showing the current situation has an upper and lower graphic. The bottom graphic shows the absolute values, the upper graphic shows anomalies compared to what one might expect at this time of the year in the various areas both 130E to 90W Longitude and from the surface down to 450 meters. At different times and today in particular, I have discussed the difference between the actual values and the deviation of the actual values from what is defined as current climatology (which adjusts every ten years) and how both measures are useful but for different purposes.

The top graphic shows surface temperature anomalies. The coolest water at the surface shows up only in small non-connected areas.  Water of La Nina coolness but not very intense shows up along the Equator from 170W to the Coast of Ecuador. The -1C water shows most strongly between 170W and 150W. There is a gap between 150W and 120W (the eastern end of the Nino 3.4 Measurement Area) although that gap does not show up fully on the TAO/TRITON Graphic. The gap, if valid, suggests the possibility that this will evolve into a cool Modoki pattern. The eastern part of the cool water pool is increasingly unimpressive with actually some showings of warm water. Notice that there is very little water with a cool anomaly in excess of -2C. How is this cool event to be sustained?
Notice the warm water at depth west of 165E.

The bottom half of the graphic (Absolute Values which highlights the Thermocline) is now more useful as we track the progress of this new Cool Event.

It shows the thermocline between warm and cool water. The 28C Isotherm is again located at  about 180 i.e. The Dateline which is about the same as last week. This graphic does not show a 27.5C anomaly which might more precisely indicate where convection is likely to occur. The 27C isotherm remains at 170W so we do not have ideal conditions for significant convection along the Equator east of the Dateline which is a characteristic of a cool event. Notice the steepness of the 28C, 27C and 26C Isotherms. This is a real boundary between warmer water and cooler water. The 25C isotherm is again at 140W which is similar to last week. The 20C Isotherm has moved close to the surface but is not reaching the surface and has not changed in weeks. The amount of warm water just west of the Dateline is also not real impressive either but growing but staying fairly far east. It is clearly a transition state and all of this is important not just for tracking this cool event but thinking about when the next El Nino might be triggered. This graphic helps understand the logic behind some of the forecasts of the ONI. So it is still a battle going on with La Nina nudging ahead but not looking like it can sustain itself.  .

Here are the above graphics as a time sequence animation. You may have to click on them to get the animation going.

Equatorial Temperature Simulation

Isotherm Simulation

Although I did not fully discuss the Kelvin Waves earlier, now seems to be the best place to show the evolution of the subsurface temperatures which remains relevant. What we have is only the upwelling phase of the series of Kelvin waves last winter.

October 10,  2016 Subsurface Temperatures.

There is cool water from 170W to the coast of Ecuador. But the coolest water, however, is only reaching the surface from 170W to 150W which is more than than last week and explains the decline in the NINO 3.4 Index  i.e. more La Nina-ish. There appears to be more cool water at depth which I gather is the result of seasonal adjustments.

And now Let us look at the Atmosphere.

Low-Level Wind Anomalies near the Equator

Here are the low-level wind anomalies.

Low Level Wlind Anomalies

The Easterlies (the blue) are suddenly less prominent.

And now the Outgoing Longwave Radiation Anomalies which tells us where convection has been taking place. 

OLR Anomalies Along the Equator

In the above graphic, there is now almost no convection along the Equator but the small area is a bit more intense.

And Now the Air Pressure which Shows up Mostly in an Index called the SOI.

This index provides an easy way to assess the location of and the relative strength of the Convection (Low Pressure) and the Subsidence (High Pressure) near the Equator. Experience shows that a comparison between Air Pressure at Tahiti and Darwin Australia is substantially correlated with the Precipitation Pattern of the entire World.. 

Below is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reported by Queensland, Australia. The first column is the tentative daily reading, the second is the 30 day moving/running average and the third is the 90 day moving/running average.

Date Current Reading 30-Day Average 90 Day Average
Oct 4   +4.51 +12.92 +7.99
Oct 5 +11.47 +13.22 +8.15
Oct 6 +12.25 +13.66 +8.31
Oct 7 +10.12 +14.03 +8.42
Oct 8   -0.84 +13.76 +8.33
Oct 9   -2.52 +13.32 +8.16
Oct 10   -2.58 +12.79 +7.95

The 30-day average, which is the most widely used measure, as of October 10 is reported at +12.79 which is about the same as last week and is definitely a La Nina level. The 90-day average at +7.95 is the same as last week and is again at a La Nina level. These may be the high water marks for the SOI re this cycle but I said that last week and the week before and the week before and the week before that. Usually but not always the 90 day average changes more slowly than the 30 day average but it depends on what values drop out. The disparity between the two is one reason why we look at both. Different agencies use a different range to classify the SOI as being El Nino or La Nina. To some extent it is the change in the SOI that is of most importance. It has been increasing but may now be stabilizing.

The MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is an important factor in regulating the SOI and Kelvin Waves and other tropical weather characteristics. More information on the MJO can be found here. Here is another good resource. September was not particularly favorable for La Nina development and most likely neither will be October in terms of the MJO. The forecasts of the MJO are all over the place and not suggesting a strong Active or Inactive Phase of the MJO any time soon.The MJO being Inactive is more favorable for La Nina than the MJO being Active. But the MJO goes back and forth from being Active, Inactive, strong and weak so in has mostly a short-term impact. Right now the impact is fairly muted. It tends to be more important when the situation is ENSO Neutral and the MJO can start the process of an El Nino getting started. It is less significant re the initiation of a La Nina but is a factor. It is surprising how weak the MJO has been for months.

Forecasting the Evolution of ENSO

The below is the Early September CPC/IRI "Probabilistic Forecast which includes a large component of input from meteorologists as compared to the second forecast in the month which is more tied to model results without interpretation. It is not a big difference but it is a difference. I assume they do it this way as to avoid forcing meteorologists to have to run their computers twice a month (some sarcasm expressed there).

September 8, 2016 CPC/IRI Official Probabilistic Forecast.

Notice that with this release, the probabilities for La Nina have changed dramatically since the August 18 analysis with Neutral being the most likely Phase of ENSO and the next El Nino beginning to show up on the meteorologist's radar. 

And then we have the recently released mid-month model-based report

September 15, 2016 IRI/CPC Model based ENSO forecast.

This is a lot more bullish on La Nina happening. Kind of a big change in a week. It is still pretty much a coin flip with the projected strength of this cool event being marginal for ruling in or out as being a La Nina Event.

We have suggested that it is possible that some of the models and in particular NOAA's model will be wrong about how fast the Eastern Pacific Warm Pool moves back towards its La Nina location and it may well be that next winter will be more of a Neutral year or even have some characteristics of an El Nino Modoki and thus be wetter than a typical year as the Warm Pool may still be more in the Central Pacific than shifted all the way west to its La Nina position.

 CFS.V2 SST Forecast

The mean of the NOAA model was until recently forecasting a fairly strong La Nina for next winter. The model gradually shifted to a weak La Nina Forecast and now to a marginal La Nina Forecast. Is the Mean of the forecast ensemble for the key periods NDJ and DJF below -0.5?  For a few weeks weeks it looked like it no longer seemed to be but now suddenly it does albeit barely but now almost to a moderate level. The mean of the model ensemble for the ONI in the NOAA model has turned higher (less La Nina-ish actually on the El Nino side of Neutral) for the Spring of the coming winter as you can see.  I doubt that this cool event will be recorded as a La Nina since it most likely will not meet the criteria for being classified as a La Nina. But I am not so sure of that in recent weeks  It is forecasted to be close enough that whether it officially is logged in as a La Nina or Neutral, probably has very little impact on the weather we will have. It is a cool event pattern but not at all extreme.

The full list of weekly values can be found here.

Forecasts from Other Meteorological Agencies.

Here is the Nino 3.4 report from the Australian BOM

Australia POAMA ENSO model run

Here is the discussion:

Negative Indian Ocean Dipole eases; continued impacts likely

The tropical Pacific Ocean remains El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral, however, some indicators have shifted closer to La Niña thresholds. Conversely, the negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has eased, though waters off Indonesia remain at near record temperatures. This may see continued IOD impacts for Australia.

Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the tropical Pacific Ocean have cooled over the past fortnight, consistent with a surge in the trade winds. The latest weekly NINO3.4 value of −0.6 °C—while still at neutral levels—is a value not seen since February 2012 (the end of the 2010–12 La Niña). Cloudiness near the Date Line and the Southern Oscillation Index have also shifted closer to La Niña-like levels. However, some forecasts suggest trade winds may return to near-normal soon. This could occur with the passage of the Madden–Julian Oscillation and would slow or cease any further La Niña development.

The majority of international climate models indicate the tropical Pacific is likely to remain at ENSO neutral levels through to the end of the 2016–17 summer. Two of the eight models suggest brief, weak La Niña levels are possible towards the end of 2016. The ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH.

With warmer than average sea surface temperatures to Australia's north and east, some La Niña-like impacts remain likely even if an event doesn't fully develop.

Negative IOD values have eased over the past fortnight, however this is mainly due to ocean warming off Africa. Waters off Indonesia remain very warm, and were second warmest on record for September. Models indicate the IOD will return to neutral levels by the end of spring. Spring in eastern Australia is typically wetter than average during a negative IOD or La Niña.

We also have the most recent JAMSTEC September 1 ENSO forecast.

JAMSTEC September 1, 2016 Two Year Enso Forecast

The model shows ENSO Neutral for the next two years. The swings are a bit more intensified than in the prior model run. Indian Ocean IOD. The discussion was shown earlier as it contains a weather forecast.

Indian Ocean IOD

Not directly related to ENSO is the IOD Forecast:

IOD POAMA Model Run

Here is the discussion:

The negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) event continues, although it has declined in strength over the past fortnight. The weekly index value to 9 October was −0.38 °C.

This is the first week since the latter part of May that the IOD index value has been outside the −0.4 °C negative IOD threshold. However, the eastern node of the IOD was second-warmest on record for September in the ERSSTv4 dataset, coming in just behind the exceptional value of September 2010.

International climate models indicate the negative IOD will steadily weaken during spring, as is typical of the lifecycle of IOD events. This means its influence on Australian rainfall may lessen in the coming months.

A negative IOD typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during spring, cooler than normal daytime temperatures to southern Australia, and warmer daytime and night-time temperatures to northern Australia.

D. Putting it all Together.

Last winter's El Nino has officially ended in terms of currently satisfying the criteria. We are now speculating on the winter of 2016/2017 which now according to some of the models seems likely to be a La Nina or Neutral with a La Nina bias. But Australia and Japan do not see it that way and are not calling for a La Nina at this point in time. So NOAA is a bit the Odd Man Out but it is mostly a question of degree and in the end NOAA may turn out to have correct.  NOAA is calling for a borderline La Nina and the others are forecasting a La Nina-ish event that does not quite meet the criteria for being labeled a La Nina and does not last long enough to meet the criteria.

Forecasting Beyond Five Years.

So in terms of long-term forecasting, none of this is very difficult to figure out actually if you are looking at say a five-year or longer forecast. The research on Ocean Cycles is fairly conclusive and widely available to those who seek it out. I have provided a lot of information on this in prior weeks and all of that information is preserved in Part II of my report in the Section on Low Frequency Cycles 3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS.   It includes decade by decade predictions through 2050. Predicting a particular year is far harder.

The odds of a climate shift for CONUS taking place has significantly increased. It may be in progress. It looks like it will require one more La Nina or ENSO Neutral event and this appears to be the way this might unfold. The AMO is pretty much neutral at this point so it may need to become a bit more negative for the McCabe A pattern to become established. That seems to be slow to happen so I am thinking we need at least a couple more years for that to happen; maybe as many as five but perhaps as few as zero as in we may have seen the PDO change phase with this recent El Nino.

E. Relevant Recent Articles and Reports

Weather in the News

Loopy Hurricanes

We have been covering the cyclones in the Atlantic and Pacific with a second article that is continually updated and can be found here.

Weather Research in the News

Nothing to report

Global Warming in the News

Southwest Mega-drought Risk - Needs to be read carefully. An important issue is the validity of RCP 8.5 as a benchmark. Here is a good article on that. It has page after page of comments so here may be a shorter version with somewhat fewer comments.

I need to really thoroughly review this very important article and that will take some time. But here are some initial thoughts.

I did want to mention that under the McCabe et al analysis, one of the four combinations of ocean phases was a drought phase so that suggested that for approximately 25% of the time the chances of drought were very good. Thus one would have expected a significant drought once a century. So that is not new information.

McCabe et al also calculated a change in the situation due to Warming. That is not new information either.

So although this new analysis is more recent than the older analysis which was just after the PDO and AMO were figured out, to me it is not very different. The main difference is this paper has scenarios for the future. One probably could have developed them from the McCabe et al analysis. And they are talking about 35 year droughts which is not all that different from the droughts we have had once per century. My quick reading of the article did not come across the mention of El Nino. Are they in the analysis? I need to read more.

The authors make things simple with basically 2C, 4C, and 6C scenarios. How the 2C is defined is important. Apparently it is mean warming from 2051 to 2100  compared to 1951 to 2000. I like to use simple approaches so my mind I will think about it as 2075 compared to 1975. There are other papers that use a different way of measuring 2C (and 4C and 6C). Some go back to 1750 or the beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Well if 1975 is the base even if the growth rate is steeper then linear there is still some room to get to 2C. We are about 40 years into the 100 year period used by the authors.

More when I have had a chance to really study this important paper.

The below is the key graphic:

Ault et al impact of Global Warming on Southwet MegaDroughts.

James Hansen on the Paris Agreement  Again this needs to be read carefully.

The big issue in my mind is not whether Global Warming is anthropogenic which can not be proven but can be reasonable inferred, or if Global Warming continues at the Business as Usual Rate (BAU) through this century and into the next century?  The big question is do we believe that the current dynamics lead to that happening? I do not think that they do. I do not think that the IPCC 8.5 Scenario is realistic. It is not going to happen. That does not mean that we should ignore the problem. It does mean that one has to integrate the goal of slowing Global Warming with other goals such as reduction of World Poverty and for the United States maintaining International Competitiveness. If one does not take an integrated approach, the backlash towards reasonable actions will prevent reasonable actions from being taken. Thus the Global Warming Alarmists may be just as problematic or worse than Global Warming Deniers.  . 

F. Table of Contents for Page II of this Report Which Provides a lot of Background Information on Weather and Climate Science  

The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page II where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.

1. Very High Frequency (short-term) Cycles PNA, AO,NAO (but the AO and NAO may also have a low frequency component.)

2. Medium Frequency Cycles such as ENSO and IOD

3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS.

4. Computer Models and Methodologies

5. Reserved for a Future Topic  (Possibly Predictable Economic Impacts)

G. Table of Contents of Contents for Page III of this Report  - Global Warming Which Some Call Climate Change.  

The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page III where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.

1. Introduction

2. Climate Impacts of Global Warming

3. Economic Impacts of Global Warming

4. Reports from Around the World on Impacts of Global Warming

Useful Background Information

With respect to relating analog dates to ENSO Events, the following table might be useful. In most cases this table will allow the reader to draw appropriate conclusions from NOAA supplied analogs. If the analogs are not associated with an El Nino or La Nina they probably are not as easily interpreted. Remember, an analog is indicating a similarity to a weather pattern in the past. So if the analogs are not associated with a prior El Nino or prior La Nina the computer models are not likely to generate a forecast that is consistent with an El Nino or a La Nina.

  El Ninos La Ninas
  Start Finish Max ONI PDO AMO Start Finish Max ONI PDO AMO
            DJF 1950 J FM 1951 -1.4 - N
T   JJA 1951  DJF 1952 0.9 - +          
   DJF 1953  DJF 1954 0.8 - + AMJ 1954  AMJ 1956 -1.6 - +
M MAM 1957   JJA 1958 1.7 + -          
M SON 1958  JFM 1959 0.6 + -          
M   JJA 1963  JFM 1964 1.2 - - AMJ 1964  DJF 1965 -0.8 - -
M  MJJ 1965 MAM 1966 1.8 - - NDJ 1967 MAM 1968 -0.8 - -
M OND 1968   MJJ 1969 1.0 - -          
T  JAS 1969   DJF 1970 0.8 N -  JJA 1970  DJF 1972 -1.3 - -
T AMJ 1972  FMA 1973 2.0 - - MJJ 1973 JJA 1974 -1.9 - -
            SON 1974 FMA 1976 -1.6 - -
T ASO 1976  JFM 1977 0.8 + -          
M ASO 1977

 DJF  1978

0.8 N -          
M SON 1979  JFM 1980 0.6 + -          
T MAM 1982  MJJ  1983 2.1 + - SON 1984 MJJ 1985 -1.1 + -
M ASO 1986  JFM 1988 1.6 + - AMJ 1988 AMJ 1989 -1.8 - -
M MJJ 1991     JJA 1992 1.6 + -          
M SON 1994   FMA 1995 1.0 - - JAS 1995 FMA 1996 -1.0 + +
T AMJ 1997   AMJ 1998 2.3 + + JJA 1998 FMA 2001 -1.6 - +
M MJJ 2002   JFM 2003 1.3 + N          
M  JJA 2004 MAM 2005 0.7 + +          
T ASO 2006   DJF 2007 1.0 - + JAS 2007  MJJ 2008 -1.4 - +
M JJA 2009 MAM 2010 1.3 N + JJA 2010 MAM 2011 -1.4 + +
            JAS 2011 FMA 2012 -0.9 - +
T MAM 2015 NA 1.0 + N          

 

ONI Recent History

ONI History Updated on October 10, 2016

The official reading for Jul/Aug/Sept is now reported as -0.5.The JAS reading is the first La Nina Value. So there would now need for there to be four more periods of -0.5 or colder for this to be eligible to be formally recorded as a La Nina. It is possible but  it will be close.

The full history of the ONI readings can be found here. The MEI index readings can be found here.

Click here for a list of Sig Silber's Weather Posts

>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.





Econintersect Weather


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
The Problem With Obamacare Is That It Did Little To Reduce Overall Healthcare Spending
Joan Robinson’s Critique of Marginal Utility Theory
News Blog
Early Headlines: Russia Hacked GOP, Trump To Drain Energy 'Swamp'?, New Sec'y Of State Candidate, India IP Shrinks, India Has World's New Largest Solar Plant , China GDP Hides Volatility And More
Most Coup Attempts In Recent Years Have Failed
The Global Cost Of Diabetes
The Universities Churning Out The Most Billionaires
Five Amazing Ways Plants Have Created New Technologies
Where U.S. Weekly Wages Go The Furthest
What We Read Today 09 December 2016
How To Stop Using Filler Words Like Um And Uh
02 December 2016: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Improvement Continues
Preliminary December 2016 Michigan Consumer Sentiment Highest Since Early 2015
October 2016 Wholesale Sales Improved
Rail Week Ending 03 December 2016: Finally A Positive Month
November 2016 CBO Monthly Budget Review: Total Receipts Up by 1 Percent in the First Two Months of Fiscal Year 2017
Investing Blog
The New Art Of Utility Investing
Investing,com Weekly Wrap-up 09 December 2016
Opinion Blog
Trickle-down Economics, Trump Edition
Looking At Everything: Trump's $1 Trillion Infrastructure Plan
Precious Metals Blog
Silver Prices Rebounded Today: Where They Are Headed
Live Markets
09Dec2016 Market Close: Wall Street Closes On A New High, Trump Sugar High, Crude Prices Testing Resistance, US Dollar Melts Higher
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government



Crowdfunding ....






























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved