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posted on 17 May 2016

May 16, 2016 Weather and Climate Report - Next Winter - Summer is Here

Written by Sig Silber

The overall pattern in the Pacific has changed to a summer pattern. The zonal movement of weather patterns from west to east has slowed down and and, after one more Pacific storm, will be replaced by mostly south to north movements. El Nino is essentially dead (RIP) and has been assigned (by me) a life expectancy of one week. We will now increasingly have typical Summer Weather which varies depending on where you live. But we wonder about next Winter so both topics will be discussed today. 

 weather.caption

 

This is the Regular Edition of my weekly Weather and Climate Update Report. Additional information can be found here on Page II of the Global Economic Intersection Weather and Climate Report.

Last week I briefly discussed in the paragraph above the "Landing Graphic" the physical basis for the phases of ENSO which I prefer to look at as a battery. This is important not just for impacts associated with this medium frequency cycle but also the way it interacts with Global Warming, storing heat in the ocean during the La Nina Phase and releasing the heat to the atmosphere during the El Nino Phase.

The way that works is pretty simple. During an El Nino, the Warm Pool is spread out so the surface area of water that is prone to evaporation is larger. Thus there is more convection in the Pacific and this transfers heat first to the water vapor and later to the clouds. You will see this in the data for average Atmospheric and Land Temperature during this El Nino. It has increased.

But now I want to briefly discuss El Nino and La Nina impacts. I hesitate to do this because I have been pretty consistent in making the point that all El Ninos and all La Ninas are different. So the below is conceptual ONLY. You can not take it to the bank.

Comparing El Nino to La Nina

ENSO Typical Winter Circulation US

The first two graphics, and there are many versions of these graphics but the above are very colorful, show how the Jet Stream tends to be further south during an El Nino (not this past winter). Notice the Aleutian Low in the El Nino graphic. The Blocking High in the La Nina pattern is reminiscent of summer weather but it is further off shore than a typical summer so it allows Pacific storms to enter the U.S. via the Northwest. 

Now we take a look at the Walker Circulation which is where the warm water causes evaporation and convection (cloud formation) and where these clouds tend to drop their precipitation which creates downwards air movements. The colors also reveal the location of warmer than climatology and cooler than climatology Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) which are used to define the pattern. Pay special attention to the water along the Equator.

La Nina Walker Circulation

It is difficult to see the difference between the La Nina (above) and Neutral conditions (below) but you should pay attention to the more pronounced (darker - thicker arrows) convection zone in the El Nino state as compared to the Neutral state and similarly the stronger subsidence zone in the La Nina state. Subsidence tends to warm and dry air masses.


Neutral Walker Circulation

It is a lot easier to see the different between Neutral and El Nino as the pattern tends to reverse with Convection Zones converting to Subsidence (drying) Zones. This winter the Convection Zone was further west than usual and I have mentioned that almost every week.

Walker Circulation

But these are theoretical constructs and are only a guide to trying to understanding what is going on. And of course these graphics do not address Modokis. They are addressed on Page II of this report which can be accessed by clicking on Medium Frequency Cycles such as ENSO and IOD

Let's Now Focus on the Current (Right Now to 5 Days Out) Weather Situation.

A more complete version of this report with daily forecasts is available in Part II. This is a summary of that more extensive report.  Worldwide Weather: Current and Three-Month Outlooks: 15 Month Outlooks will take you directly to that set of information but it may take a few seconds for your browser to go through the two-step process of getting to Page II and then moving to the Section within Page II that is specified by this link.

Characteristics of a Weekly Weather Column.

Many graphics in this report are auto-updated by the source of the graphic. It is always my choice as the writer to allow these graphics to auto-update or "freeze them" to what they looked like when I write the article. Generally speaking graphics in research themes which appear above this point do not auto-update as they come from published scientific papers. When I make the decision to allow certain graphics to auto-update, it creates two issues:

A. As the graphic updates, my commentary becomes out of sync with the new version of the graphic. This can be very extreme if for example you take a look at my report from months ago.

B. On rare occasions, source sites for graphics go down and the graphic does not appear in the article and you probably see white space.  If you experience such an event and that graphic is important to your understanding of the report, please return later to view my weather and climate column.  Sometimes the "outage" is only for several minutes, but often the duration can be a number of hours or even one or more days.  We feel that this inconvenience is preferable to looking at "frozen" weather map images that do not update since I write the article on Monday evenings and you probably do not read it until Tuesday and perhaps later in the week. So I want you to have the advantage of seeing the most up-to-date graphics. If the source is down, the white space is the price paid for most of the time being able to see the latest available graphics.

 

First, here is a national animation of weather front and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at the link provided above.

current highs and lows

The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color coding.

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 7-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients.This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA's latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot.

7 Day 500 MB Geopotential Forecast

Because "Thickness Lines" are shown by those green lines on this graphic, it is a good place to define "Thickness"  and its uses. The 540 Level general signifies equal chances for snow at sea level locations. I am leaving this explanation in the report but it may not be very significant until next October or so.  The 7 Day Outlook indicates a large Trough moving through the West and a Ridge being pushed by this trough moving from the West Coast to the Great Lakes area with a trough along the East Coast. Remember, this is a Day 7 Forecast. NOAA is not real impressed with the Ridge shown here. It may not be as strong as it appears on this graphic.

The MJO is not likely to have much of an impact for the month of May as a whole as this MJO cycle appears to be weak and the forecasts of phase changes are contradictory. The MJO has had significant impacts this winter but the impact on May is not likely to be very noticeable.

Notice the Northern Pacific is now much less like a giant anticyclone with clockwise motion so that which gets sent west due to El Nino is to some extent returned to North America but at higher latitudes. Everything is now moving east.

Western Pacific Tropical Activity

As I am looking at the below graphic Monday evening May 16, I see a dry Southwest and wet East pattern and the continued northerly displacement of the overall storm track. But the local forecasts call for that storm track to drop down and cross New Mexico tomorrow.  One can already see on this graphic (and out the window where I am finalizing this report here in Santa Fe New Mexico) part of the storm swinging down into New Mexico. As we move into a Summer Pattern, the concept of a storm track west to east becomes less relevant and we focus more on south to north movements i.e. the Monsoon in the Southwest and Tropical Storms in the East and Gulf of Mexico. This graphic updates automatically so it most likely will look different by the time you look at it as the weather patterns are moving from west to east.

 Water Vapor Imagery

Below is an analysis of projected tropical hazards and benefits over an approximately two-week period. This graphic is scheduled to update on Tuesday and I am reading the May 10, 2016 Version and looking at Week 2 of that forecast.
Tropical Hazards

Mostly I see for the period May 18  -  May 24, 2016  a moderate confidence for a wet anomaly and stormy conditions stretching from Indochina to Southern India. That is all that is shown.

Below is a graphic which highlights the forecasted surface Highs and the Lows re air pressure on Day 6 (the Day 3 forecast is available on Page II of this Report). This graphic also auto-updates.

Day 6 Weather Forecast

All of a sudden the Aleutian Low seems to have retired for the Summer. There is a low over in Eastern Siberia but that appears to be a local issue.
The High Pressure off of California, the familiar RRR, is here and is normal for this time of the year unlike during the winter.  Two weeks ago I provided this  K - 12 write up that provides a simple explanation on the importance of semipermanent Highs and Lows and another link that discussed possible changes in the patterns of these highs and lows which could be related to a Climate Shift (cycle) in the Pacific or Global Warming.
All I want to say now is that what we have in the Pacific is a dry pattern for CONUS re weather originating from the Pacific Ocean. It is a different configuration than what we have been seeing but it has the same impact i.e. most Pacific storms are entering CONUS via the U.S. Northwest or British Columbia Canada.
There us a lot of moisture around so the potential for precipitation is there.

Looking at the current activity of the Jet Stream

Current Jet Stream

The path of the current weather pattern is fairly clear from this graphic.  But the Jet Stream now is fairly weak.

And here is the forecast out five days. 

Jet Stream Five Days Out

Not all weather is controlled by the Jet Stream (which is a high altitude phenomenon) but it does play a major role in steering storm systems. In some cases however a Low Pressure System becomes separated or "cut off" from the Jet Stream. In that case it's movements may be more difficult to predict until that disturbance is again recaptured by the Jet Stream.
A big issue right now is will the storm projected out five days really make it as far south as indicated in this graphic?

To see how the pattern is projected to evolve, please click here. In addition to the shaded areas which show an interpretation of the Jet Stream, one can also see the wind vectors (arrows) at the 300 Mb level.

This longer animation shows how the jet stream is crossing the Pacific and when it reaches the U.S. West Coast is going every which way.

Click here to gain access to a very flexible computer graphic. You can adjust what is being displayed by clicking on "earth" adjusting the parameters and then clicking again on "earth" to remove the menu. Right now it is set up to show the 500 hPa wind patterns which is the main way of looking at synoptic weather patterns.

And when we look at Sea Surface anomalies below, we see a lot of them not just along the Equator related to El Nino.

Daily SST Anomaly

The waters off of Japan remain warm. The Indian Ocean is very warm except off the west coast of Australia. The overall Northern Pacific is indeed PDO Positive (the horseshoe pattern with the cool anomaly inside the horseshoe shape). I have seen a report that the PDO Index rose to 2.4 in March which with El Nino fading may be significant. It is now up to 2.62 for April. Here is the list of PDO values. The water off the West Coast of North America is very warm but does not extend nearly as far south as recently. And the water off of Peru is no longer extremely cool which is strange given that a La Nina is supposedly arriving. One no longer really sees an El Nino other than the warm area south of the Equator from about 140W to the Dateline and that warm anomaly is being forced south out of the ONI Measurement Area. There is a very narrow cool anomaly right along the Equator. This is kind of strange. Further north in the Atlantic south of Greenland and Iceland rather than directly off the Coast of North America, the North Atlantic is cooler than normal which is consistent with AMO+ and has implications for the NAO i.e. parts of Europe. The warm water off of West Africa is no longer there but is further south. The waters north of Antarctica are uniformly colder than climatology. Is that due to ice melt? Again, I have additional commentary on this below where I examine the four-week change in these anomalies.

Below I show the changes over the last month in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies.

May 16, 2016, 30 Day Change in SST Anomalies.

Since these are "departures" or "anomalies", it is not a seasonal pattern that is being shown. Comparing a four-week graphic to a prior four-week graphic is always tricky since only 25% of the data has changed and I am not showing the former graphic (it is in last week's report). I add the new one, compare and comment on the change and then delete the old one to keep this report to a manageable size. What I see as I look at both (before deleting the prior version) is that again like last week the anomalies are less intense.  It does look like a cooling trend off of the west coast of Northern Mexico extending up to the extreme South of CONUS. The Gulf of Mexico may be getting a bit cooler. Surprisingly, the West Coast of South America  is getting warmer. In all cases I am not talking about absolute temperatures but changes the anomalies. The changes are subtle. What we see in this graphic is four weeks of change not the current absolute anomalies which are today two graphics further up. It is not derivatives in the mathematical sense but deltas. They are somewhat similar. The graphic above this one has no time component. It is simply the deviation from climatology and this graphic shows the four-week change in the deviation from climatology. So it is a bit like the first and second derivatives but not exactly. 

 6 -  14 Day Outlook Plus the Week 3-4 Experimental Forecasts

Now let us focus on the 6 - 14 Day Forecast for which I generally only show the 8 - 14 Day Maps. The 6 - 10 Day maps are always available in Part II of this report but in the Winter and Spring I often show both maps as the forecasted weather patterns change during that nine day period.

To put the forecasts which NOAA tends to call Outlooks into perspective, I am going to show the three-month MJJ Outlook and the recently updated Outlook for the single month of May and then discuss the 6 - 10 Day and 8 - 14 Day Maps and the 6 - 14 Day NOAA Discussion within that framework.

First - Temperature

Here is the Three-Month MJJ Temperature Outlook issued on April 21, 2016:

MJJ Temperature Outlook Issue on April 21, 2016

Here is the Updated Outlook for May Temperatures issued on April 30, 2016.

May 2016 Updated Temperature Outlook Issued on April 30, 2016

Below are the current 6 - 10 Day and 8 - 14 Day Temperature Outlook Maps which will auto-update daily and thus be current when you view them. It covers the nine days following the tail end of the current week. I have included both today and probably will continue to do that as long as the patterns are moving from west to east fairly rapidly. I have also included the experimental Week 3 and 4 Outlook. The Week 3-4 Experimental Outlook updates weekly on Friday. Notice the Week 3-4 Experimental Outlook has fewer levels of probability starting with 50%.

As I view these maps on May 16, it appears that the main feature for Mid to Late-May will be the continued zonal progression of the temperature anomalies across CONUS but at a slower rate of speed.

 6 - 10 Day Temperature Outlook

6 - 10 Day Temperature Outlook

8 - 14 Day Temperature Outlook  

8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

Looking further out.

Experimental Week 3-4 Temperature Outlook

It is not that easy to see how the 8 - 14 Day Outlook will morph into the Week 3 - 4 Experimental Outlook. It would involve a substantial increase in the progression of the warm anomaly forecast to enter CONUS during the 8 - 14 Day Period moving across the Northern Tier. That is possible but I am a bit skeptical.

Now - Precipitation 

Here is the three-month MJJ Precipitation Outlook issued on April 21, 2016:

MJJ Precipitation Outlook Issue on March 17, 2016

Updated Precipitation Outlook for May Issued on April 30, 2016

May 2016 Updated Precipitation Outlook Issued on April 30, 2016

Below are the current 6 - 10 Day and 8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook Maps which will auto-update and thus be current when you view them. It covers the nine days following the tail end of the current week. I have included both today and probably will continue to do that as long as the patterns are moving from west to east fairly rapidly. I have also included the experimental Week 3 and 4 Outlook. The Week 3-4 Experimental Outlook updates weekly on Fridays. Notice the Week 3-4 Experimental Outlook has fewer levels of probability starting with 50%.

As I view these maps on May 16 (they update each day), it looks like precipitation for Mid to Late-May will be generally widespread wet conditions favoring the Central part of CONUS with a southern bias and the potential to create flooding issues from Texas east.

6 - 10 Day Precipitation Outlook

6 - 10 Day Precipitation Outlook

8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook 

Current 8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

Weeks 3 and 4 Experimental Forecast.

It is easy to see how the 8 - 14 Day Outlook might morph into the Week 3 - 4 Experimental Outlook but I am not sure of the reasoning for this pattern. A new Seasonal Outlook is scheduled to be issued this coming Thursday that should provide the explanation. 

Here are excerpts from the NOAA discussion released today May 16, 2016.

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 22 - 26 2016

TODAY'S MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL 500-HPA FLOW  PATTERN OVER THE FORECAST DOMAIN. SPLIT FLOW IS FORECAST WITH A RIDGE OVER NORTHERN CANADA IN THE NORTHERN STREAM AND A TROUGH IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM OVER  THE WEST COAST. DOWNSTREAM OF THE TROUGH, A WEAK RIDGE WITH POSITIVE ANOMALIES  OF 500-HPA HEIGHT IS FORECAST OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CONUS. FURTHER TO THE EAST,  A TROUGH IS PREDICTED OVER THE EAST COAST. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT  BLEND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEAN, WHICH HAVE THE HIGHER ANOMALY CORRELATION SCORE DURING THE PAST  60 DAYS.  

LARGE POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER ALASKA SUPPORT ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR  ABOVE AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. AN ANOMALOUS TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST LEADS TO INCREASED CHANCES FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE WESTERN CONUS.  SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTRAL U.S. DURING THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD, FAVORING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.

A SHORT WAVE TROUGH FORECAST TO PASS OVER ALASKA FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN  PRECIPITATION, EXCEPT FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE. AHEAD OF THE TROUGH NEAR THE WEST COAST, ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,  THE GREAT BASIN, THE NORTHERN PLAINS, AND THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI  VALLEY.  THE STORM TRACK IS FORECAST OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL U.S., INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE MIDDLE-ATLANTIC REGION AND THE NORTHEAST AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFSET BY  THE MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR MAY 24 - 30 2016 

THE 500-HPA HEIGHT AND ANOMALIES PATTERNS FOR THE WEEK-2 PERIOD ARE SIMILAR TO THOSE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD BUT LOWER AMPLITUDE DUE TO INCREASED UNCERTAINTY.  THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI DIAGRAMS INDICATE MODERATE TO HIGH SPREAD ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST DOMAIN.  

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE WEST COAST DUE TO THE TROUGH SHIFTED EASTWARD INLAND. AS POSITIVE HEIGHT ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO BECOME MORE BROAD ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS DURING THE WEEK-2 PERIOD, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR ALASKA DUE TO THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES, CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DUE TO MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT.   

ABOVE-MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST OVER ALASKA DUE TO A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THERE. BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE WEST COAST, THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND THE NORTHERN EAST COAST, CONSISTENT WITH PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES FROM THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. NEAR TO ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF THE CENTRAL CONUS IS RELATED TO THE TROUGH MOVING IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: BELOW AVERAGE, 2 OUT OF 5, DUE TO A WEAK 500-HPA ANOMALY PATTERN AND SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS AND TOOLS.

Some might find this analysis interesting as the organization which prepares it looks at things from a very detailed perspective and their analysis provides a lot of information on the history and evolution of this El Nino.

Analogs to the Outlook.

Now let us take a detailed look at the "Analogs" which NOAA provides related to the Outlook.

I prefer the set of analogs that relates to the 5 day period centered on 3 days ago and the 7 day period centered on 4 days ago. "Analog" means that the weather pattern then resembles the recent weather pattern and was used in some way to predict the 6 - 14 day Outlook. But the NOAA system for generating those pre-forecast analogs is not working.  They publish a second set of analogs which relates the 6 - 10 Day Outlook to previous occurrences of that weather pattern and similarly for the 8 -14 Day Outlook. So that is what I am using today. It is explained here and here. I do not like my work being doubled so I decided to just use the second set of analogs which corresponds to Day 11 of the Outlook. In my mind that set of analogs tells you nothing (zilch) about the reliability of the forecasts but is helpful in predicting the outlook for the subsequent time periods. That is interesting also. I am also presenting them today in the order that they are provided which means the ones at the top have the highest level of correlation with the forecast and thus are more reliable for forecasting future time periods.

Day

ENSO

Phase

PDO AMO

Other Comments

May 31, 1978 Neutral + -  
May 28, 1972 El Nino - - Strong Traditional El Nino.
May 31, 1996 Neutral + -  
June 6, 2004 Neutral + +  
June 5, 1996 Neutral + -  
May 21, 1991 El Nino - - Modoki Type II
June 10, 2002 El Nino - - Modoki Type I
June 10, 1999 La Nina - + Following the 97/98 MegaNino
May 30, 2006 Neutral + +  
May 11, 2004 Neutral + +  

One thing that jumped out at me right away was the spread among the analogs from May 11 to June 10 which is a full month. Day 11 of this Outlook (it may change by the time you view it) is May 27. So eight out of ten of these analogs are later than the centroid of the forecast suggesting to me that summer is coming unusually quick this year. If you look at the first five analogs which are the ones with the highest correlation it is not an enormous difference but a little less than a week advanced. There are this time three El Nino Analogs, six ENSO Neutral Analogs and one La Nina Analog suggesting indecision or that we are now beyond the point where the Phase of ENSO is very important.

The phases of the ocean cycles in the analogs are inconclusive but slightly favor PDO Negative AMO Positive if you ignore the combinations but simply add up the numbers of PDO+ (6  out of 10) and AMO- (6 out of 10). This is somewhat consistent with the forecast. The seminal work on the impact of the PDO and AMO on U.S. climate can be found here. Water Planners might usefully pay attention to the low-frequency cycles such as the AMO and the PDO as the media tends to focus on the current and short-term forecasts to the exclusion of what we can reasonably anticipate over multi-decadal periods of time.

McCabe Maps modified to include the subtitles

You may have to squint but the drought probabilities are shown on the map and also indicated by the color coding with shades of red indicating higher than 25% of the years are drought years (25% or less of average precipitation for that area) and shades of blue indicating less than 25% of the years are drought years. Thus drought is defined as the condition that occurs 25% of the time and this ties in nicely with each of the four pairs of two phases of the AMO and PDO.

Historical Anomaly Analysis

When I see the same dates showing up often I find it interesting to consult this list.

With respect to relating analog dates to ENSO Events, the following table might be useful. In most cases this table will allow the reader to draw appropriate conclusions from NOAA supplied analogs. If the analogs are not associated with an El Nino or La Nina they probably are not as easily interpreted. Remember, an analog is indicating a similarity to a weather pattern in the past. So if the analogs are not associated with a prior El Nino or prior La Nina the computer models are not likely to generate a forecast that is consistent with an El Nino or a La Nina.

  El Ninos La Ninas
  Start Finish Max ONI PDO AMO Start Finish Max ONI PDO AMO
            DJF 1950 J FM 1951 -1.4 - N
T   JJA 1951  DJF 1952 0.9 - +          
   DJF 1953  DJF 1954 0.8 - + AMJ 1954  AMJ 1956 -1.6 - +
M MAM 1957   JJA 1958 1.7 + -          
M SON 1958  JFM 1959 0.6 + -          
M   JJA 1963  JFM 1964 1.2 - - AMJ 1964  DJF 1965 -0.8 - -
M  MJJ 1965 MAM 1966 1.8 - - NDJ 1967 MAM 1968 -0.8 - -
M OND 1968   MJJ 1969 1.0 - -          
T  JAS 1969   DJF 1970 0.8 N -  JJA 1970  DJF 1972 -1.3 - -
T AMJ 1972  FMA 1973 2.0 - - MJJ 1973 JJA 1974 -1.9 - -
            SON 1974 FMA 1976 -1.6 - -
T ASO 1976  JFM 1977 0.8 + -          
M ASO 1977

 DJF  1978

0.8 N -          
M SON 1979  JFM 1980 0.6 + -          
T MAM 1982  MJJ  1983 2.1 + - SON 1984 MJJ 1985 -1.1 + -
M ASO 1986  JFM 1988 1.6 + - AMJ 1988 AMJ 1989 -1.8 - -
M MJJ 1991    JJA 1992 1.6 + -          
M SON 1994   FMA 1995 1.0 - - JAS 1995 FMA 1996 -1.0 + +
T AMJ 1997   AMJ 1998 2.3 + + JJA 1998 FMA 2001 -1.6 - +
M MJJ 2002   JFM 2003 1.3 + N          
M  JJA 2004 MAM 2005 0.7 + +          
T ASO 2006   DJF 2007 1.0 - + JAS 2007  MJJ 2008 -1.4 - +
M JJA 2009 MAM 2010 1.3 N + JJA 2010 MAM 2011 -1.4 + +
            JAS 2011 FMA 2012 -0.9 - +
T MAM 2015 NA 1.0 + N          

 

Progress of the Warm Event

Let us start with the SOI.

Below is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reported by Queensland, Australia. The first column is the tentative daily reading, the second is the 30 day moving/running average and the third is the 90 day moving/running average.

Date Current Reading 30-Day Average 90 Day Average
May 10 +8.1 -12.62 -13.88
May 11 -4.5 -12.48 -14.03
May 12 -10.1 -12.36 -14.88
May 13 -1.9 -11.93 .14.04
May 14 +2.3 -11.20 -13.80
May 15 +4.0 -10.03 -13.44
May 16 +6.6  -8.99 -12.93

The 30-day average, which is the most widely used measure, as of May 16 is reported at -8.99 which is again associated with an El Nino (usually required to be more negative than -8.0 but some consider -6.0 value good enough). It is quite a bit weaker (less negative) this week. If there were one or two more weeks of such readings, the SOI would move into ENSO Neutral Territory. The 90-day average remains in El Nino territory at -12.93.  Usually but not always the 90 day average changes more slowly than the 30 day average but it depends on what values drop out. The SOI continues to be indicative of an El Nino Event in progress but it is pretty much passed the time of year where it is very meaningful re El Nino development.  I believe we will see a moderating trend in the SOI from here. It kind of looks like the SOI is about to signal the end of this EL Nino just as the ONI is about to do the same.

The MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is an important factor in regulating the SOI and Kelvin Waves and other tropical weather characteristics. More information on the MJO can be found here. Here is another good resource.

Low-Level Wind Anomalies

Here are the low-level wind anomalies. We now see light easterly anomalies which are probably an indication of both a lack of MJO activity and the death of the El Nino.  

Low Level Wlind Anomalies

And now the Outgoing Longwave Anomalies which tells us where convection has been taking place.

OLR Anomalies Along the Equator

In the above graphic, the convection zone east of the Dateline has narrowed. The non-convection zone to the west of the Dateline appears to be vanishing. Overall, it is far less a coherent pattern at this point.

Kelvin Waves

Let us now take a look at the progress of Kelvin Waves which are the key to the situation.  From the earliest to the most recent they can be named #1 through #5.  Kelvin Wave #1 has now been pushed off the top of this graphic as more recent information is added at the bottom.

Kelvin Waves Auto-updates

We now see the major Upwelling Phase which is the Coup de Grace for this El Nino.

One should keep in mind that for a new Kelvin Wave, the period of time from initiation to the termination of impacts is about six months. So when you have four or five this winter six in a row, the pattern of impacts on different indices and geographic areas becomes quite complex. It is further complicated as you can see above because the Kelvin Waves do not necessarily originate at the same location i.e. longitude.

We are now going to change the way we look at a three dimensional view of the Equator and move from the surface view to the view from the surface down. This El Nino appears to be fading slowly from west to east. The real decline will be from east to west.

Current Sub-Surface Conditions.  Notice the lag in getting this information posted so the current situation may be a bit different than shown.

And now the pair of graphics that I regularly provide and which as I publish are currently able to be accessed from the NOAA website: I was however expecting to have a May 13 update of this graphic to report on today.

Subsurface Heat Anomalies

The above pair of graphics showing the current situation has an upper and lower graphic.  The bottom graphic shows the absolute values, the upper graphic shows anomalies compared to what one might expect at this time of the year in the various areas both 130E to 90W Longitude and from the surface down to 450 meters.

The top graphic shows surface temperature anomalies. The 2C, 3C, 4C, 5C and 6C anomalies are gone. the 0.5 C now extends from 155W to 165E. There are just a couple of small and shallow occurrences of the 1C anomaly. From the West, cool water has now made it all the way to the Coast of Ecuador and in a very limited number of places the anomaly exceeds negative 4C. So the subsurface water is actually not as anomalously cool as last week. Along the Coast of South America the cool water at depth is still down at 200 meters  and actually is less close to the surface than last week. But there is hardly any warm anomaly between the cool anomaly rising from depth and the cool anomaly that is the upwelling phase of the last Kelvin Wave.

The bottom half of the graphic (Absolute Values which highlights the Thermocline) perhaps is a now equally useful in terms of tracking the progress of this Warm Event as it converts to ENSO Neutral and then La Nina.

It shows the thermocline between warm and cool water. The 25C Isotherm is now reaching the surface. There is a lot of compression of the Isotherms so from 120W on east, the 20C is close to the surface and will reach the surface soon. We now pay close attention to the 28C Isotherm as west of that temperature is where convection is more easy to occur. The 28C Isotherm has moved west to about 155W. This graphic does not show a 27.5C anomaly which might more precisely indicate where convection is likely to occur. The 27C isotherm is at about 138W. Clearly the area has moved west as one expects when an El Nino dies. One way of looking at this is that the SST's along the Equator are 1C less than fairly recently.

Here are the above graphics as a time sequence animation. You may have to click on them to get the animation going.

Equatorial Temperature Simulation

Isotherm Simulation

TAO/TRITON GRAPHIC

This discussion is longer than necessary to describe current conditions but I am retaining the snap shots of the earlier TAO/TRITON graphics to allow the reader to understand how this El Nino evolved and how it is now decaying.

Let us compare the situation as reported on October 4 to the most recent graphic. Remember each graphic has two parts the top part is the average values, the bottom part is those values expressed as an anomaly compared to the expected values for that date. Generally I am mainly discussing the bottom of the pairs of graphics namely the anomalies

First the October 4 version which I am providing for purposes of comparison. I "flash froze" the daily value that day so that it would not auto-update.

Oct 4, 2015 TAO/TRITON

And then the December 14 version which I also "flash froze" to stop it from updating.

December 14, 2015 Frozen TAO/TRITON GRAPHIC

And then the current version of the TAO/TRITON Graphic.

Current SST and wind anomalies

Location Bar for Nino 3.4 Area Above and Below
------------------------------------------------  A      B      C      D      E      -----------------

 

We seem to be having a number of things going on at the same time. The warm anomaly is almost gone, the cool anomaly extends further into the Pacific but the cool anomaly near Ecuador is actually weaker.  So the actual pattern may be more nuanced than is being measured by the models.

The 3.5C anomaly is no longer visible. Neither is the 3.0C anomaly or the 2.5C anomaly or the 2C anomaly. The 1.5C anomaly only exists in the Nino 3.4 Measurement Area south of the Equator and may soon be too far south to be counted. So the maximum anomalies (which do not appear everywhere) have declined by a full two and one half degrees Centigrade almost everywhere. This means that if one is attempting to mentally estimate the daily ONI, an approach would be to make an initial estimate of the midpoint of the 1C to 1.5C anomaly or 1.25C and subtract the reductions from there where the anomaly is less and if appropriate, and it was not this week, add back in the area south of the Equator. What I have just described is not exactly the approach I use in my calculation below but it does provide a quick way to get a feel for the current strength of this El Nino. There is actually shading in the TAO/TRITON Graphic that might allow one to try to refine estimates a bit more than the contour lines but I rely on the contour lines. This El Nino is almost gone. 

And an earlier but recent reference point close to the peak of this El Nino re the bottom half of the TAO/TRITON Graphic. You can certainly see the difference that three months makes.

January 19, 2016 Frozen TAU/TRITON Graphic

The below table tracks the changes. It only addresses the situation right on the Equator so visually the TAO/TRITON graphic contains more information. But the below table turns visual information into quantitative information so it may be useful. The degrees of coverage shown in the rightmost two columns shows that the extent of the warm water directly on the Equator has been reduced in recent weeks. The way I constructed the table for the rows related to a Warm Event, the 1.0C anomaly as an example includes all water warmer than 1.0C so the 1.5C anomaly is included within it as well as the 2.0C anomaly which you can tell by the way I recorded the westward and eastward coordinates. I could have constructed this table in a different way. And Indeed for the cool layers the -.5C anomaly includes all water as cool as -5C or cooler. I am not sure if I have figured out the best way to record the Neutral water areas. The point of the exercise is to show how over time the warm anomaly for actual or potential El Nino events has expanded or shrank and the cool anomaly for actual or potential La Nina events has expanded or shrank.

Note the 3C anomaly, 2.5C anomaly, 2.0C anomaly, 1.5C anomaly and even the 1.0C anomaly no longer exists along the Equator. As this El Nino decays I am including the less warm anomalies in the table below.

Comparing Now to January 19, 2016

Subareas of the 

Anomaly

Westward Extension Eastward Extension Degrees of Coverage
Today January 19, 2016 Today   January 19, 2026 Today In Nino 3.4 January 19, 2016
These Rows Show the Extent of El Nino Impacts on the Equator
3C or higher Anomaly Gone 158W Gone   134W 0 0 24
2.5C or higher Anomaly Gone 165W Land   110W 0 0 55
2.0C or higher Anomaly Gone 170W Gone   100W 0 0 70
1.5C or higher Anomaly Gone 175W Gone   Land 0 0 80
1.0C or higher Anomaly Gone 175E Gone   Land 0 0 90
0.5C or higher Anomaly 170E 160E 170W   Land 20 0 105
These Rows Show the Extent of ENSO Neutral Impacts on the Equator
0.5C or less Anomaly 170W Land Land   Land 75 50 0
0.0C or less Anomaly 142W Land Land   Land 47 22 0
These Rows Show the Extent of the La Nina Impacts on the Equator
-0.5C or less Anomaly 120W Land Land   Land 25 0 0
-1C or less Anomaly Land Land Land   Land 0 0 0

 

The above table which only looks at the Equator shows that there is very little left of the warm anomaly. I have now split the table to show warm, neutral, and cool anomalies. The top rows show El Nino anomalies. The two Rows just below the break contribute to ENSO Neutral and after another break, the rows are associated with La Nina conditions. I have been adding less warm anomalies to the bottom of the table and soon will be removing the warm anomalies from the top of this table since they will no longer be a factor as we go to ENSO Neutral or ENSO La Nina.

I calculate the ONI each week using a method that I have devised. To refine my calculation, I have divided the 170W to 120W ONI measuring area into five subregions (which I have designated from west to east as A through E) with a location bar shown under the TAO/TRITON Graphic). I use a rough estimation approach to integrate what I see below and record that in the table I have constructed. Then I take the average of the anomalies I estimated for each of the five subregions. So as of Monday May 16, in the afternoon working from the May 15 TAO/TRITON report, this is what I calculated.

Calculation of ONI from TAO/TRITON Graphic
Anomaly Segment Estimated Anomaly
  Last Week This Week
A. 170W to 160W 0.9 0.8
B. 160W to 150W 1.1 1.0
C. 150W to 140W 1.2 0.9
D. 140W to 130W 1.0 0.5
E. 130W to 120W 0.4 0.3
Total 4.6 3.5
Total divided by five subregions i.e. the ONI (4.6/5 = 0.9 (3.5)/5 = 0.7

 

My estimate of the daily Nino 3.4 ONI has declined to 0.7. NOAA has reported the weekly ONI to be 0.6 which is barely the level of a weak El Nino.  Nino 4.0 is being reported lower at 0.6  raising questions about if and how fast the Warm Pool is migrating to the West as it dissipates.  Nino 3.0 is being reported again at 0.4C . The action which I think is most important to track right now is in Nino 1+2. It has been a roller coaster up and down and now leveled off for the moment at+0.5C. The ONI is not measured in that area but it is significant. For the Coast of South America, the El Nino is over but we are not yet in a La Nina condition although the water directly off of Ecuador is now quite cold as can be seen in the TAO/TRITON graphic. Nino 1 + 2 is further south which explains why it can still be a warm anomaly while the water directly off of Ecuador is cold. I am only showing the currently issued version of the NINO SST Index Table as the prior values are shown in the small graphics on the right with this graphic.

May 16, 2016 Nino Readings

ONI Recent History

The official reading for Feb/Mar/Apr is now reported as 1.6. I have discussed before the mystery of how the Nino 3.4 (ONI) CFSv2 values above get translated into the ERSST.v4 values shown below and if NOAA feels that working with two sets of books is a good way to operate, who am I argue. Many businesses do the same thing. As you can see this El Nino peaked in NDJ and is now declining and depending on what system you use it is either the 2nd or 3rd strongest El Nino since modern records were kept which is considered to be 1950. You could argue for it being #1 based on a week of readings but few are buying that argument. Still #2 or #3 means it is one of the strongest ever based on the way these events are measured. I will be writing more about that soon in a separate article. I believe the measurement system is inadequate re being useful in forecasting Worldwide weather impacts.

The full history of the ONI readings can be found here.   The MEI index readings can be found here.

Is this El Nino a Modoki?

It did not evolve as a Modoki unless you consider it to be a continuation of the Faux El Nino Modoki of 2014/2015 which is a possible interpretation. But the Walker Circulation appears to be much like that of a Modoki. These graphics help explain this.

Although I discussed the Kelvin Waves earlier, now seems to be the best place to show the evolution of the subsurface temperatures.

May 16, 2016 Kelvin Wave History

Until recently watching this El Nino evolve has been like watching paint dry. And that is the case again. The undercutting cool anomaly has totally replaced the warm pool off the coast of Ecuador.  What remains is a very very weak El Nino that resembles a Modoki but may or not be a Modoki as discussed elsewhere in this article.  You can also see that there is not much left of the warm pool. It is not really moving back to the Western Pacific as one would expect. It is just disappearing. That may turn out to be very significant.  IT MAY TAKE A LONG TIME FOR THE NEXT EL NINO TO BE GENERATED.

SST Surface Anomaly Hovmoeller

Here is another way of looking at it: Unlike the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Hovmoeller (I call it the Kelvin Wave Hovmoeller) which takes an average down to 300 meters, this just measures the surface temperature anomaly. It is the surface that interacts with the atmosphere and causes convection and also the warming and cooling of the atmosphere. A major advantage of the Hovmoeller method of displaying information is that it shows the history so I do not need to show a sequence of snap shots of the conditions at different points in time. Nevertheless this Hovmoeller provides a good way to visually see the evolution of this El Nino and later track its demise. 

SST Anomalies Hovmoeller

One can easily see the historical evolution of this El Nino. You can easily see how the intensity peaked in November 2015, declined in December and then declined substantially in late February and continues to decline. At the very bottom of this graphic, which shows the most recent readings, you can see the easing of the extreme temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 Measurement area (see the scale on the right: red is less warm than dark red) namely 170W to 120W. That explains the reduction in NOAA ONI estimates. That is likely to continue to be the trend. You can see the steady decay in the anomalies from the east between 80W and beyond the Dateline but a persistence of the warm anomaly from about 150W to just beyond the Dateline. So the Warm Pool has left the Eastern Pacific but has not made much progress returning to Indonesia. We are now starting to see a cool (shades of blue) anomaly developing off the coast of Ecuador. You can also see some blue at about 110W. There are other graphics which show it better but I prefer this one because it auto-updates.

Recent Impacts of Weather Mostly El Nino but possibly Also PDO and AMO Impacts.

Below are snapshots of 30 Day temperature and precipitation departures over the life of this El Nino. The end date of the 30 day period is shown in the graphic.  It is a way of seeing how the impacts of this El Nino have unfolded.

June 15, 2015 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures.

July 13, 2015 30 Day Temperature and Preciptiation Departures

August 10 2015 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

Sept 5, 2015 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

Oct 3, 2015 30 day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

30 day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

November 30, 2015 30 day temperature and precipitation departures.

January 4, 2016 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

February 1, 2016 30 Day Temperature and Weather Departures.

Feb  29, 2016 temperature and Precipitation Departures.

March 7, 2016 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

April  2016 20 day temperature and precipitation departures.

Remember this is a 30 day average and last week I used a different graphic so this can not be compared to last week but is best compared with last month. The La Nina pattern persists for much of the West with respect to both precipitation and temperature but is a normal El Nino for the Mississippi Valley in March. Northern California was wet but it is hard to say if that looks like El Nino or La Nina. This is one strange El Nino and for the 2nd or 3rd strongest in modern history it is a mystery that has not been given adequate attention. 

Lets take a look at the combined results for the first three months of 2016: January, February and March.

April 4, 2016 90 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures.

Well that does not look like an El Nino pattern to me but more like a La Nina pattern for precipitation and just plain warm pretty much everywhere which is neither an El Nino nor a La Nina Pattern.

And here is the April (30 day) graphic.

May 2, 2016 30 Day Temperature and Weather Departures

We have seen a gradual change in April to a more typical El Nino pattern. The Northwest is dry and the Southwest is a bit wetter than normal. One area along the Southern California western Arizona border had very good  El Nino precipitation. The lee side of the Rockies for some reason were wet all the way to Canada and probably into Canada but not shown in this graphic. It certainly has remained dry in Mexico. The Temperature Pattern has been very close to a typical El Nino pattern in April.

I realize this is a lot of graphics but one needs to look at the history of an event to assess it. As you can see, so far we are not having the expected El Nino Impacts in CONUS.

Here is the ninety day picture for February, March, and April.

May 2, 2016, 90 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures.

The precipitation pattern still looks more like a La Nina than an El Nino. It has been warmer than climatology everywhere.

And here is the graphic from last week which added a week and removed the seven earliest days so it is a 30 day analysis through May 7, 2016

May 9, 2016 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures.

It looked a lot more like a traditional El Nino pattern the last 30 days. You see that in both the precipitation and temperature.

May 16, 2016 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

But less so with one week added. The dry belt south of the Southwest has moved a bit north. We do not hear a lot about Mexico but they must be hurting.

El Nino in the News

As was previously suggested here, the near El Nino Modoki of 2014/2015 gave this El Nino a Head Start.

Full Paper

Global Warming in the News

Nothing to report this week.

Putting it all Together.

This El Nino has peaked in intensity and is now in rapid decline. We are beginning to speculate on the winter of 2016/2017 which now according to most of the models seems increasingly likely to be a La Nina.

The below is the CPC/IRI forecast issued on May 12, 2016. It is important to remember that the first report in each month is based on a survey of meteorologists and the second report later in the month is based on the analysis of the forecast models. It is a minor difference but a difference.

May 16, 2016 IRI CP ENSO Forecast

The new forecast shows increased confidence that next winter will be a La Nina winter. In fact the forecast is for El Nino to be over (switching to ENSO Neutral) by the May - Jun - Jul three month period which means June. So one does not have much confidence that May will be much impacted by El Nino although El Nino impacts lag the demise of the El Nino.

We have suggested that it is possible that some of the models and in particular NOAA's model will be wrong about how fast the Eastern Pacific Warm Pool moves back towards its La Nina location and it may well be that next winter will be more of a Neutral year or even have some characteristics of an El Nino Modoki and thus be wetter than a typical year as the Warm Pool may still be more in the Central Pacific than shifted all the way west to its La Nina position.

We have reason to believe that the models may not be taking into account all factors such as the Equatorial ocean currents and that this El Nino may not transition to a La Nina quite as rapidly as some of the models, Such as the below NOAA model, are predicting.

 CFS.V2 SST Forecast

The mean of the NOAA model was forecasting a fairly strong La Nina for next winter. The model is gradually shifting to a weak La Nina Forecast. Notice the blue members of the ensemble forecast which are the more recent ones.

I now have the May 1 Run of the JAMSTEC Model.

JAMSTEC May 1, 2016 ONI Forecast

It is forecasting a moderate La Nina for next winter and continuing as a La Nina or Neutral with a La Nina tendency for the subsequent winter. That could be the signal for the Pacific Climate Shift.

Here is the Australian Model. It has not  updated since I presented it last week but I will be including it every week now as tracking the change in phase of ENSO is the most important weather issue for our Planet right now.

Australia POAMA ENSO model run

It  does not extrapolate as far into the future as the JAMSTEC model. It is somewhat similar to the NOAA model but seems to be less certain that we will have a La Nina rather then ENSO Neutral with a La Nina tendency.

I realize it is impolite but our way of identifying the phases of ENSO seems fairly primitive to me. The Warm Pool has been depleted so there is no reinforcing warm water to be sent east by Kelvin Waves. So it is not really possible to have another El Nino winter. Thus it is fairly certain that the Eastern Pacific SST's will be cooler than climatology. Does this in and of itself create a La Nina? If the only criteria is the ONI, it will record as a La Nina or close to it. One does not need fancy computer models to know that will be the case. But will we have the La Nina Walker Circulation. Without that, you do not have the impacts associated with a La Nina. So you would have a La Nina in name only.

Forecasting Beyond Five Years.

So in terms of long-term forecasting, none of this is very difficult to figure out actually if you are looking at say a five-year or longer forecast. The research on Ocean Cycles is fairly conclusive and widely available to those who seek it out. I have provided a lot of information on this in prior weeks and all of that information is preserved in Part II of my report in the Section on Low Frequency Cycles 3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS.  It includes decade by decade predictions through 2050. Predicting a particular year is far harder.

The odds of a climate shift for CONUS taking place has significantly increased. It may be in progress. It may require one more La Nina. But it appears that "McCabe Condition A" is coming soon. Right now we seem to have a blend of McCabe Conditions A and C which are opposites which may explain some of the forecasting difficult. The AMO is pretty much neutral at this point so it may need to become a bit more negative for the McCabe A pattern to become established.

TABLE OF CONTENTS FOR PART II OF THIS REPORT  The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page II where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you. 

A. Worldwide Weather: Current and Three-Month Outlooks: 15 Month Outlooks  (Usefully bookmarked as it provides automatically updated current weather conditions and forecasts at all times. It does not replace local forecasts but does provide U.S. national and regional forecasts and, with less detail, international forecasts)

B. Factors Impacting the Outlook

1. Very High Frequency (short-term) Cycles PNA, AO,NAO (but the AO and NAO may also have a low frequency component.)

2. Medium Frequency Cycles such as ENSO and IOD

3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS.

C. Computer Models and Methodologies

D. Reserved for a Future Topic  (Possibly Predictable Economic Impacts)

TABLE OF CONTENTS FOR PART III OF THIS REPORT - GLOBAL WARMING WHICH SOME CALL CLIMATE CHANGE. The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page III where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.

D1. Introduction

D2. Climate Impacts of Global Warming

D3. Economic Impacts of Global Warming

D4. Reports from Around the World on Impacts of Global Warming

Click here for a list of Sig Silber's Weather Posts

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