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posted on 05 April 2016

4 April 2016 Weather and Climate Report: A Tale of Two Half-Months

Written by Sig Silber

NOAA has issued their Updated Outlook for April. The month of April is forecast to be very different for the first half than the second half. There is always variability within a month but in this case NOAA has emphasized in their discussion the projected changes throughout the month. We cover that aspect of the Update plus a number of other issues including more evidence that a climate shift is likely either relatively immediately or within a couple of years.

 weather.caption

 

This is the Regular Edition of my weekly Weather and Climate Update Report. Additional information can be found here on Page II of the Global Economic Intersection Weather and Climate Report.

New Subseasonal High-Frequency Cycle (click here to read) has been discovered. Relax, it is not poised to create a heat wave right now. But it is worth reading.

NOAA has as usual issued an update for the month following the last day of the prior month. This update was issued on March 31 and we will discuss that first by comparing the Updated Outlook to the Early Outlook issued on March 17. 

Here is the Early Outlook for April Temperatures issued on March 17, 2016.

April Temperature Early Outlook Issued on  March 17, 2016

Updated Temperature Outlook Issued on March 31, 2016

April 2016 Updated Temperature Outlook on March 31, 2016

The warm anomaly now extends east to the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. A cool anomaly in the Lower Mississippi River states has been removed.

April Early Precipitation Outlook Issued on March 17, 2016

April Early Outlook Precipitation Outlook Issue on March 17, 2016

Updated Precipitation Outlook issued on March 31, 2016

April Precipitation Outlook Issued on March 31, 2016+

The Southern Tier wet anomaly has been reduced where the cool anomaly was removed. The Western Great Lakes Dry Anomaly has been expanded and extends further to the South. The tip of Florida is now shown as having normal precipitation.

Below is the very well written discussion issued with this update.

30-DAY OUTLOOK DISCUSSION FOR APRIL 2016

THE APRIL MONTHLY UPDATE IS A CHALLENGING FORECAST AS CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW WEEKS FOR MANY AREAS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SHORT-RANGE, EXTENDED RANGE AND SUBSEASONAL INFORMATION WAS ALL CONSIDERED AND REQUIRED IN ADJUSTING THE APRIL 2016 OUTLOOK FROM MID-MONTH.

AT THE START OF THE MONTH, A STRONG RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN IS FORECAST BY DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CONUS FROM WEST TO EAST AND IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A PERIOD OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR AREAS OF THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR THE FIRST WEEK INTO THE START OF THE SECOND WEEK OF APRIL. ALTHOUGH LATER IN WEEK-2 AND EXPERIMENTAL WEEK 3-4 GUIDANCE FAVORS THIS PATTERN TO EASE WITH WARMER TEMPERATURES, THE COLD START TO THE MONTH TILTS THE ODDS SLIGHTLY TOWARD BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN TEMPERATURES.

THE APRIL UPDATED OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR ALASKA AND THE WESTERN CONUS SIMILAR TO THE MID-MONTH OUTLOOK AS SHORT RANGE, EXTENDED RANGE AND WEEK 3-4 EXPERIMENTAL GUIDANCE ALL FAVOR WARMER THAN AVERAGE CONDITIONS IN MOST AREAS, AS DOES THE MONTHLY CFS FORECAST FOR MOST LOCATIONS. PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INCREASED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN CONUS. MOREOVER, ELEVATED ODDS OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPANDED, ALBEIT AT MODEST PROBABILITIES, ACROSS THE INTERIOR OF THE CONUS TO THE PLAINS AND EASTWARD TO THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS.

FOR PRECIPITATION, SHORT RANGE POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY IN THE PERIOD TILTS THE ODDS TOWARDS ABOVE MEDIAN FOR MONTHLY PRECIPITATION TOTALS FOR SOME AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST. THEREAFTER, THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE TROUGH PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS FAVORS ANOMALOUS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST DURING THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED RANGE PERIODS. THE BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION AREA HIGHLIGHTED IN THE MID-MONTH OUTLOOK NEAR THE GREAT LAKES IS EXPANDED WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD AS A RESULT.

EXTENDED RANGE GUIDANCE FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF CALIFORNIA, THE SOUTHWEST, THE GREAT BASIN AND THE ROCKIES AS DOES EXPERIMENTAL WEEK 3-4 GUIDANCE FOR AREAS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. MOREOVER, ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED IN MONTHLY INTEGRATED CFS MODEL FORECASTS. CONSEQUENTLY, ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW, THE FORECAST FOR ELEVATED ODDS FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM THE MID-MONTH OUTLOOK IN THESE REGIONS. FAVORED BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR AREAS IN ALASKA ARE MAINTAINED IN THE UPDATED OUTLOOK.

Sometimes it is useful to compare the present month outlook to the three-month outlook

April plus  April - May - Jun Outlook


April 2016 plus AMJ Issued on March 31, 2016

One can mentally subtract the April Outlook from the three-month Outlook and create the Outlook for the last two months in the three-month period namely May and June 2016. When I do that, I deduce that May and June will have:

even higher probabilities for East Coast warm anomalies.

One has to keep in mind that we are now subtracting an April Map issued on March 31 from a March 17 three-month map so it is less reliable than the exercise we went through two weeks ago. We are assuming that the three-month outlook issued on March 17 would not change if it was released today. The results in the box above might be an indication of how May and June will differ from the three-month outlook or it might alternatively indicate how the three-month outlook might be modified if issued today. Because the discussion of the Updated Outlook for April addresses recent model projections, it did not seem reasonable to me to draw conclusions about May and June precipitation by subtracting the April Outlook from the three-month outlook. That was a judgment call on my part.

Let's Focus on the Current (Right Now to 5 Days Out) Weather Situation.

A more complete version of this report with daily forecasts is available in Part II. This is a summary of that more extensive report.  Worldwide Weather: Current and Three-Month Outlooks: 15 Month Outlooks will take you directly to that set of information but it may take a few seconds for your browser to go through the two-step process of getting to Page II and then moving to the Section within Page II that is specified by this link.

First, here is a national animation of weather front and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at the link provided above.

current highs and lows

The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color coding.

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 7-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients.This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA's latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot.

7 Day 500 MB Geopotential Forecast

Right now it is showing for Day 7 a possible Rex Block near the West Coast. More clear is the trough passing over the Rocky Mountains and moving towards the Great Lakes. The Rex Block is discussed later but for now I will just say it has the potential to create wet conditions in the Southwest. There may be a Ridge of sorts trailing the trough moving East and later in the period creating warm conditions. Because "Thickness Lines" are shown by those green lines on this graphic, it is a good place to define "Thickness"  and its uses. The 540 Level general signifies equal chances for snow at sea level locations. Other than at high elevations, snow is not likely to be a predominant feature of weather over the next couple of weeks. Overall it has been a warm winter and it is already meteorological Spring. The groundhog appears to have gotten it correct. El Nino is over and those who do not wish to acknowledge that are kidding themselves.

The MJO is not likely to have much of an impact for the month of April as a whole as this MJO cycle appears to be weak and the forecasts of phase changes are contradictory. The MJO is thought by some to be relatively unimportant during the winter but perhaps a strong El Nino increases the relevance of the MJO. It has had significant impacts this winter but the impact on April is not likely to be very noticeable. It probably will be more of a factor in the Summer.

Notice the Northern Pacific is like a giant anticyclone with clockwise motion so that which gets sent west due to El Nino is to some extent returned to North America but at higher latitudes. I am trying to see if I can discern a change in pattern towards lower latitudes for storms arriving from the Western Pacific but so far I do not see that in this animation.

Western Pacific Tropical Activity

As I am looking at the below graphic Monday evening April 4, I again see a northerly displaced weather pattern with storms which originated in the Pacific about to come on shore in the Southern Tier. This graphic updates automatically so it most likely will look different by the time you look at it as the weather patterns are moving from west to east.

 Water Vapor Imagery

Below is an analysis of projected tropical hazards and benefits over an approximately two-week period. This graphic is scheduled to update on Tuesday and I am reading the March 29. 2016 Version and looking at Week 2 of that forecast.
Tropical Hazards

Mostly I see for the period April 6 -  April 12, 2016 a moderate likelihood of below average precipitation for the Maritime Continent and extreme Northern Australia.  There is also the persistent moderate likelihood of dry conditions in Eastern Brazil although south of the drier than climatology area there is a wetter than climatology projected for Uruguay. There are small areas of both a moderate likelihood of above average precipitation and below average precipitation in Africa. You can see that the majority of the impacts continue to be west of the Date Line but even there they are much reduced as this El Nino dies.

Below is a graphic which highlights the forecasted surface Highs and the Lows re air pressure on Day 6 (the Day 3 forecast is available on Page II of this Report). This graphic also auto-updates.

Day 6 Weather Forecast

In recent weeks, the projected location and strength of the Aleutian Low has varied a lot. On some days, the forecast is showing a split low with each of the two lows weaker than a combined single Low. Right now the forecasted Low has an hPa of 984 which is (the average in the winter is 1001hPa and 994 hPa for a non-split Low) not extreme for Winter but perhaps stronger than normal for Spring. It is now well organized. But the location is not favorable for producing El Nino type weather for CONUS. It is hard to tell if the High Pressure off of California is organized enough to function like the RRR. The pressure gradient of this High is not very strong and there is a gap between the High and the Coastline so it may only partially protect the West Coast from Pacific Storms. And that appears to be the case with storms undercutting the West Coast Ridge.
In fact this may be a set up for a REX BLOCK which would transfer a higher latitude storm track further south.  The High above the Low off or near the West Coast is where that pattern may come into play.
The rapidly shifting position of the Low makes a big difference in how storms are steered. A longer discussion of the climate of Beringia and the role of the Aleutian Low is in Part II of this Report:  2. Medium Frequency Cycles such as ENSO and IOD

Looking at the current activity of the Jet Stream

Current Jet Stream

The path of the current weather pattern is fairly clear from this graphic.

And here is the forecast out five days. 

Jet Stream Five Days Out

Not all weather is controlled by the Jet Stream (which is a high altitude phenomenon) but it does play a major role in steering storm systems. One sees a potential undercutting and or Rex Block process here. The little arrows, which can be interpreted like vectors, give it away. But the Jet Stream might be too far south for the major precipitation events hoped for to provide much needed precipitation for the U.S. Southwest. We will see how this unfolds which may involve two or possibly three storm systems over a period of a week or so. 

To see how the pattern is projected to evolve, please click here. In addition to the shaded areas which show an interpretation of the Jet Stream, one can also see the wind vectors (arrows) at the 300 Mb level.

This longer animation shows how the jet stream is crossing the Pacific and when it reaches the U.S. West Coast is going every which way.

Click here to gain access to a very flexible computer graphic. You can adjust what is being displayed by clicking on "earth" adjusting the parameters and then clicking again on "earth" to remove the menu. Right now it is set up to show the 500 hPa wind patterns which is the main way of looking at synoptic weather patterns.

And when we look at Sea Surface anomalies below, we see a lot of them not just along the Equator related to El Nino.

Daily SST Anomaly

There is a lot less warm water off of Peru and Chile. It is clearly not connected to the ENSO Warm Pool at the surface. So we essentially have a Modoki pattern at this point in terms of weather impacts. The overall Northern Pacific is indeed PDO Positive (the horseshoe pattern with the cool anomaly inside the horseshoe shape). The water off the West Coast of North America is warm especially off of Central America and in the Gulf of Alaska. The water off the East Coast of the U.S. is also warm and the four-week analysis shows it may be slowly getting warmer. It is no surprise they are having fish kills and the next step may be shark attacks. Further north but off the North American Coast and south of Greenland and Iceland, the North Atlantic is cooler than normal which is consistent with AMO+ and has implications for the NAO and perhaps even this summer tropical storm potential in the Atlantic. An article in the El Nino News Section of this Report provides additional detail. Waters around Australia are warm especially to the east and southeast. The waters off of Japan are now warm. The set up is for a typical PDO-/AMO+ weather pattern but we are not getting that just yet and NOAA has not been noticing but making statistical forecasts when it is fairly obvious there is a missing variable in their equations.  I believe that variable has been the location of the Aleutian Low which recently was starting to reposition itself more appropriately for an El Nino but the tail end of an El Nino and two weeks ago the Aleutian Low decided to visit Siberia spawning a new theory that the pattern is so far north it may be undercut. That theory had been proposed twice before recently and perhaps the third time would be the charm. Unfortunately the Aleutian Low visit to Siberia was so short that there was not even a need to arrange for overnight accommodations. We now have a fourth prediction of an undercutting and this one would appear to be fairly realistic.

Below I show the changes over the last month in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies.

April 4, 2016 Change in weekly SST Departures

Since these are "departures" or "anomalies", it is not a seasonal pattern that is being shown. Comparing a four-week graphic to a prior four-week graphic is always tricky since only 25% of the data has changed and I am not showing the former graphic (it is in last week's report). I add the new one, compare and comment on the change and then delete the old one to keep this report to a manageable size. What I see as I look at both (before deleting the prior version) I see that it continues to warm (positive change in SST anomalies) around the Galapagos Islands but cool further to the west in the ONI Measurement Areas. For the West Coast of the U.S., the anomaly is becoming less positive as is the case for the area north of Australia and west of Southern Hemisphere Africa. 

6 -  10 Day Outlook

Now let us focus on the 6 - 14 Day Forecast for which I generally only show the 8 - 14 Day Maps. The 6 - 10 Day maps are always available in Part II of this report but in the winter I often show both maps as the forecasted weather patterns change during that nine day period.

To put the forecasts which NOAA tends to call Outlooks into perspective, I am going to show the three-month AMJ Outlook and the recently updated Outlook for the single month of April and then discuss the 8 - 14 day Maps and the 6 - 14 Day NOAA Discussion within that framework.

First - Temperature

Here is the Three-Month AMJ Temperature Outlook issued on March 17, 2016:

AMJ Temperature Outlook Issue on March 17, 2016

Here is the Updated Outlook for April Temperatures issued on March 31, 2016.

April Temperature Outlook Updated on March 31, 2016

Below are the current 6 - 10 Day and 8 - 14 Day Temperature Outlook Maps which will auto-update and thus be current when you view them. It covers the nine days following the tail end of the current week. I have included both today and probably will continue to do that all winter as the patterns are moving from west to east fairly rapidly.

As I view these two maps on April 4 (it updates each day), it appears that the main feature for Middle of April will be a cool Great Lakes Area and Midwest.

 6 - 10 Day Temperature Outlook

6 - 10 Day Temperature Outlook

8 - 14 Day Temperature Outlook  

8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

Looking further out.

Experimental Week 3-4 Temperature Outlook

I am not sure the 6 - 14 Day and the Weeks three and four from the experimental model adds up to the monthly forecast recognizing that the first week is not shown in the above maps. But it does look like a shift of the warm anomaly more to the East as the month progresses. I am not sure how often the Week 3-4 Experimental Outlook updates. Notice the Week 3-4 Experimental Outlook has fewer levels of probability starting with 50% so I am not suggesting one can integrate the maps and expect to come back to the Monthly Outlook. There are other complications also. I provide this map simply for information purposes. It is not a "gotcha" exercise.

Now - Precipitation 

Here is the three-month AMJ Precipitation Outlook issued on March 17, 2016:

AMJ Precipitation Outlook Issue on March 17, 2016

April Updated Precipitation Outlook Issued on March 31, 2016

April Precipitation Outlook Issued on March 31, 2016

Below are the current 6 - 10 Day and 8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook Maps which will auto-update and thus be current when you view them. It covers the nine days following the tail end of the current week. I have included both today and probably will continue to do that all winter as the patterns are moving from west to east fairly rapidly.

As I view these two maps on April 4 (they update each day), it looks like precipitation for the middle of April will be fairly widespread except for the Norther Tier of CONUS first from Minnesota west and later in the period from Wisconsin west.

6 - 10 Day Precipitation Outlook

6 - 10 Day Precipitation Outlook

8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook 

Current 8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

Weeks 3 and 4 Experimental Forecast.

The second half of the month appears based on the experimental model to have a much reduced area of above climatology precipitation. I do not know how often the Week 3-4 Experimental Outlook updates. Notice the Week 3-4 Experimental Outlook has fewer levels of probability starting with 50% so I am not suggesting one can integrate the maps and expect to come back to the Monthly Outlook. There are other complications also. I provide this map simply for information purposes. It is not a "gotcha" exercise.

Here are excerpts from the NOAA discussion released today April 4, 2016. It covers the full nine-day period and this week I have shown both the 6 -10 Day and the  8 - 14 Day Maps.

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 10 - 14 2016

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS, AND THE BERING SEA/THE ALEUTIANS, WHILE A RIDGE IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS EXTENDING NORTH/NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTERN CANADA AND ALASKA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ON THE 500-HPA HEIGHT IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM IS FORECAST NEAR THE SOUTHWEST COAST. TODAY'S OFFICIAL 500-HPA HEIGHT BLEND IS COMPOSED PRIMARILY OF THE SOLUTIONS FROM THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS, DUE TO CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE PREDICTED PATTERN MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST 60 DAYS. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE MODERATE SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS AND MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC.

BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS TILT THE ODDS TO BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MOST OF THE OF THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND ALASKA. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR TEXAS AND FLORIDA. 

THE TROUGH FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CONUS TILTS THE ODDS TO ABOVE MEDIAN  PRECIPITATION FOR THE EASTERN CONUS. ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS AND ANOMALOUS NORTHERLY FLOW ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, PARTS OF THE NORTHWEST AND THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. TROUGH ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST COAST FAVORS ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWEST CONUS. THE TROUGH OVER THE BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MOST OF ALASKA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIR  AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEANS OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE MODERATE TO LARGE SPREAD OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN PACIFIC.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR APR 12 - 18 2016 

THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FORECASTS FOR WEEK-2 INDICATE A GENERAL PROGRESSION OF THE  CIRCULATION FEATURES PREDICTED FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. THE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST WHILE THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY UNDERCUTTING THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER THE WEST MOVES FURTHER INLAND. 

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR ALASKA, AND THE ALASKA PANHANDLE DUE TO THE POSITIVE 500-HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES OVER THERE. ANOMALOUS PACIFIC FLOW FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. EAST OF THE MEAN TROUGH IN 500-HPA HEIGHTS, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR THE EAST COAST. BELOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS DUE TO MEAN TROUGHING ALOFT. BELOW AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU REGION DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE MOVING IN.  

THE PATTERNS OF PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR WEEK-2 ARE VARY SIMILAR TO THAT OF 6-10 DAYS PERIOD, EXCEPT FOR THE NEAR NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.  

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TEMPERATURE TOOLS OFFSET BY UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CONUS. 

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON APRIL 21

Some might find this analysis interesting as the organization which prepares it looks at things from a very detailed perspective and their analysis provides a lot of information on the history and evolution of this El Nino.

Analogs to Current Conditions

Now let us take a detailed look at the "Analogs" which NOAA provides related to the 5 day period centered on 3 days ago and the 7 day period centered on 4 days ago. "Analog" means that the weather pattern then resembles the recent weather pattern and was used in some way to predict the 6 - 14 day Outlook.

Here are today's analogs in chronological order although this information is also available with the analog dates listed by the level of correlation. I find the chronological order easier for me to work with. There is a second set of analogs associated with the outlook but I have not been analyzing this second set of information although I was forced to last week because the set of analogs I wanted to use was only partially available last week. This first set which is what I am using today applies to the 5 and 7 day observed pattern prior to today. The second set which I am not using (but used last week) relates to the forecasted outlook 6 - 10 days out correlation with similar patterns that have occurred in the past during the dates covered by the 6 - 10 Day Outlook. That may also be useful information but they put this set of analogs in the discussion with the other set available by a link so I am assuming that this set of analogs is the most meaningful and I find it so.

Centered

Day

ENSO

Phase

PDO AMO

Other Comments

Apr 2, 1962 Neutral - +  
Mar 24, 1974 La Nina - -  
Mar 25, 1974 La Nina - -  
Apr 5, 1977 Neutral + - Right after a Weak El Nino
Mar 25, 1990 Neutral - -  
Apr 15, 1990 Neutral - -  
Apr 16, 1990 Neutral - -  
Apr 1, 1994 Neutral + - Before a Modoki starting that summer

One thing that jumped out at me right away was the spread among the analogs from Mar 24 to Apr 16 which is just over three weeks. It suggests that the prior week conditions are highly correlated with weather patterns which in the past occurred over a fairly narrow range of dates as shown. There are again this time zero El Nino Analogs, six ENSO Neutral Analogs and two La Nina Analogs suggesting that El Nino is again not in control over our weather for the next 6 - 14 Days or perhaps more accurately the forecast best correlates with periods of time when ENSO was neutral or in the La Nina state. The 1990 and 1994 analogs are quite interesting as they are before and after a wet period. It raises some questions about the forecast shift to La Nina.

The phases of the ocean cycles in the analogs point clearly towards McCabe Condition B. It is a stretch to conclude that 6 - 14 Day Outlook is consistent with McCabe Condition B. The seminal work on the impact of the PDO and AMO on U.S. climate can be found here. Water Planners might usefully pay attention to the low-frequency cycles such as the AMO and the PDO as the media tends to focus on the current and short-term forecasts to the exclusion of what we can reasonably anticipate over multi-decadal periods of time.

McCabe Maps modified to include the subtitles

You may have to squint but the drought probabilities are shown on the map and also indicated by the color coding with shades of red indicating higher than 25% of the years are drought years (25% or less of average precipitation for that area) and shades of blue indicating less than 25% of the years are drought years. Thus drought is defined as the condition that occurs 25% of the time and this ties in nicely with each of the four pairs of two phases of the AMO and PDO.

Historical Anomaly Analysis

When I see the same dates showing up often I find it interesting to consult this list.

With respect to relating analog dates to ENSO Events, the following table might be useful. In most cases this table will allow the reader to draw appropriate conclusions from NOAA supplied analogs. If the analogs are not associated with an El Nino or La Nina they probably are not as easily interpreted. Remember, an analog is indicating a similarity to a weather pattern in the past. So if the analogs are not associated with a prior El Nino or prior La Nina the computer models are not likely to generate a forecast that is consistent with an El Nino or a La Nina.

  El Ninos La Ninas
  Start Finish Max ONI PDO AMO Start Finish Max ONI PDO AMO
            DJF 1950 J FM 1951 -1.4 - N
T   JJA 1951  DJF 1952 0.9 - +          
   DJF 1953  DJF 1954 0.8 - + AMJ 1954  AMJ 1956 -1.6 - +
M MAM 1957   JJA 1958 1.7 + -          
M SON 1958  JFM 1959 0.6 + -          
M   JJA 1963  JFM 1964 1.2 - - AMJ 1964  DJF 1965 -0.8 - -
M  MJJ 1965 MAM 1966 1.8 - - NDJ 1967 MAM 1968 -0.8 - -
M OND 1968   MJJ 1969 1.0 - -          
T  JAS 1969   DJF 1970 0.8 N -  JJA 1970  DJF 1972 -1.3 - -
T AMJ 1972  FMA 1973 2.0 - - MJJ 1973 JJA 1974 -1.9 - -
            SON 1974 FMA 1976 -1.6 - -
T ASO 1976  JFM 1977 0.8 + -          
M ASO 1977

 DJF  1978

0.8 N -          
M SON 1979  JFM 1980 0.6 + -          
T MAM 1982  MJJ  1983 2.1 + - SON 1984 MJJ 1985 -1.1 + -
M ASO 1986  JFM 1988 1.6 + - AMJ 1988 AMJ 1989 -1.8 - -
M MJJ 1991    JJA 1992 1.6 + -          
M SON 1994   FMA 1995 1.0 - - JAS 1995 FMA 1996 -1.0 + +
T AMJ 1997   AMJ 1998 2.3 + + JJA 1998 FMA 2001 -1.6 - +
M MJJ 2002   JFM 2003 1.3 + N          
M  JJA 2004 MAM 2005 0.7 + +          
T ASO 2006   DJF 2007 1.0 - + JAS 2007  MJJ 2008 -1.4 - +
M JJA 2009 MAM 2010 1.3 N + JJA 2010 MAM 2011 -1.4 + +
            JAS 2011 FMA 2012 -0.9 - +
T MAM 2015 NA 1.0 + N          

 

Progress of the Warm Event

Let us start with the SOI.

Below is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reported by Queensland, Australia. The first column is the tentative daily reading, the second is the 30 day moving/running average and the third is the 90 day moving/running average.

Date Current Reading 30-Day Average 90 Day Average
Mar 29 -14.2 -6.99 -15.74
Mar 30 -16.5 -5.90 -15.60
Mar 31 -19.4 -4.88 -15.45
Apr 1  -9.3 .4.07 -15.13
Apr 2  -9.0 -3.53 -14.85
Apr 3 -11.0 -3.57 -14.63
Apr 4 -18.8 -3.99 -14.43

 

The inactive phase of the MJO changed to the Active Phase and you see this in the El Nino-ish SOI readings. But local conditions in Tahiti are also involved and may not be directly related to the MJO. The 30-day average, which is the most widely used measure, as of April 4 is reported at -3.99 which is not really a reading that is associated with an El Nino (usually required to be more negative than -8.0 but some consider -6.0 value good enough). The 30 day average was impacted by some very low SOI values which occurred five weeks ago dropping out of the average. So it is difficult to really interpret right now. The 90-day average remains in El Nino territory at -14.43 a bit weaker than last week.  Usually but not always the 90 day average changes more slowly than the 30 day average but it depends on what values drop out. The SOI continues to be somewhat indicative of an El Nino Event in progress but it is pretty much passed the time of year where it is very meaningful re El Nino development.  I believe we will continue to see a moderating trend in the SOI from here on with the possible exception of the current impact of the MJO and continued local stormy conditions in Tahiti. If the reference point is the dateline, the MJO may begin to change to the Inactive Phase this week. It is not likely to have much impact on the SOI but may keep it in El Nino territory for another couple of weeks or so.

The MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is an important factor in regulating the SOI and Kelvin Waves and other tropical weather characteristics. More information on the MJO can be found here. Here is another good resource.

SOI as a Precipitation Prediction Tool

Here is a graphical presentation of the SOI values.

Queensland graphic recent SOI history.

If you assume there has been sufficient recent history to show that that the SOI is rising (my interpretation not the interpretation of Queensland), then the Queensland Model would provide this forecast for precipitation.

Queensland Forecast based on the assuptions shown.

In reality we only have had one month of rapidly rising SOI. And this is a model that only uses one variable to make its prediction but it is interesting and perhaps is more reliable than one might expect. 

Low-Level Wind Anomalies

Here are the low-level wind anomalies. We recently for the first time started to see Easterly anomalies, the blue area at the bottom of the Hovmoeller graphic. But have again switched to Westerly anomalies probably related to the more Active Phase of the MJO. This is likely to change back soon to Easterly anomalies which has a big bearing on the rate of demise of this El Nino.

Low Level Wlind Anomalies

And now the Outgoing Longwave Anomalies which tells us where convection has been taking place.

OLR Anomalies Along the Equator

In the above graphic, you can see how the convection pattern due to the active phase of the MJO may have shifted more than a bit to the east.

MJO Activity

April 4, 2016 MJO Activity

You can see that the upper-level divergence activity where convection is enhanced is about to play out and has passed the Dateline already. The convergence or convection suppression zone I believe is passing right now. The area in between those two lines is the MJO. It may be impacting CONUS Southwest over the next couple of weeks.

Kelvin Waves

Let us now take a look at the progress of Kelvin Waves which are the key to the situation.  From the earliest to the most recent they can be named #1 through #5.  Kelvin Wave #1 is being pushed off the top of this graphic as more recent information is added at the bottom.

Kelvin Waves Auto-updates

I see no sign of a Kelvin Wave #6 unless one views the slight retraction of the upwelling wave following Kelvin Wave #5 as being Kelvin Wave #6. If so it is so insignificant that it can be ignored. There simply was not enough warm water left in the Western Pacific Warm Pool to generate a Kelvin Wave of any significance. We now see the next Upwelling Phase of this Kelvin Wave which is the Coup de Grace for this El Nino extending beyond the Nino 3.4 Measurement Area.

One should keep in mind that for a new Kelvin Wave, the period of time from initiation to the termination of impacts is about six months. So when you have four or five in a row, the pattern of impacts on different indices and geographic areas becomes quite complex. It is further complicated as you can see above because the Kelvin Waves do not necessarily originate at the same location i.e. longitude.

We are now going to change the way we look at a three dimensional view of the Equator and move from the surface view to the view from the surface down. This El Nino appears to be fading slowly from west to east. The real decline will be from east to west.

Current Sub-Surface Conditions.  Notice the lag in getting this information posted so the current situation may be a bit different than shown.

Subsurface Heat Anomalies

Top Graphic (Anomalies)

The above graphic showing the current situation has an upper and lower graphic.  The bottom graphic shows the absolute values, the upper graphic shows anomalies compared to what one might expect at this time of the year in the various areas both 130E to 90W Longitude and from the surface down to 450 meters.

The top graphic is still the most useful of the two. The 2C is basically gone and no longer exists in the ONI Measurement Area. The 3C, 4C, 5C and 6C anomalies are gone. But there remains some warm water near the Galapagos as what might be the last Kelvin Wave to get that far comes to the surface. But at depth, cool water has made it up to the 200 meter deep point off the coast of South America. From the West cool water is as far east almost to 100W and in some places the anomaly exceeds negative 3C. The 1C anomaly has already split into two pieces with the western part on its way to Indonesia. There is hardly anything left of this El Nino. 

Bottom Graphic (Absolute Values which highlights the Thermocline)

The bottom half of the graphic may soon become more useful in terms of tracking the progress of this Warm Event as it converts to ENSO Neutral and then La Nina.

It shows the thermocline between warm and cool water which pretty much looks like this as shown here during a Warm Event. You can see that the cooler water is not yet fully making it to the surface to the east along the coast of Ecuador. In fact, the 25C Isotherm temporarily is not reaching the surface. We now will pay more attention to the 28C Isotherm as west of that temperature is where convection is more easy to occur. The 28C Isotherm is rapidly moving west and is approaching 160W. When it passes the Dateline, the El Nino is over in terms of being able to impact CONUS weather. 

Here are the above graphics as a time sequence animation. You may have to click on them to get the animation going.

Equatorial Temperature Simulation

Isotherm Simulation

TAO/TRITON GRAPHIC

This discussion is longer than necessary to describe current conditions but I am retaining the snap shots of the earlier TAO/TRITON graphics to allow the reader to understand how this El Nino evolved and how it is now decaying.

Let us compare the situation as reported on October 4 to the most recent graphic. Remember each graphic has two parts the top part is the average values, the bottom part is those values expressed as an anomaly compared to the expected values for that date. Generally I am mainly discussing the bottom of the pairs of graphics namely the anomalies

First the October 4 version which I am providing for purposes of comparison. I "flash froze" the daily value that day so that it would not auto-update.

Oct 4, 2015 TAO/TRITON

And then the December 14 version which I also "flash froze" to stop it from updating.

December 14, 2015 Frozen TAO/TRITON GRAPHIC

And then the current version of the TAO/TRITON Graphic.

Current SST and wind anomalies

Location Bar for Nino 3.4 Area Above and Below
------------------------------------------------  A      B      C      D      E      -----------------

 

First of all you can see the westerly anomalies resulting from the Active Phase of the MJO. The overall pattern is quite a bit less intense than on December 14. The 3.5C anomaly is no longer visible. Neither is the 3.0C anomaly. The 2.5C anomaly and the 2C anomaly no longer exists in the Nino 3.4 Measurement Area. So the maximum anomalies (which did not appear everywhere) have declined by a full two degrees Centigrade. This means that if one is attempting to mentally estimate the daily ONI, an approach would be to make an initial estimate of the midpoint of the 1.5C to 2.0C or 1.75C and subtract the reductions from there where the anomaly is less. What I have just described is not exactly the approach I use in my calculation below but it does provide a quick way to get a feel for the current strength of this El Nino. There is actually shading in the TAO/TRITON Graphic that might allow one to try to refine estimates a bit more than the contour lines but I rely on the contour lines. The 1.5C anomaly is also now shrinking. And the western part of the 1.5C anomaly is south of the Equator which means that it has less than half the impact of an anomaly that extends from 5 degrees north latitude to 5 degrees south latitude. This El Nino is crashing. 

And an earlier but recent reference point close to the peak of this El Nino re the bottom half of the TAO/TRITON Graphic. You can certainly see the difference that ten weeks makes.

January 19, 2016 Frozen TAU/TRITON Graphic

The below table tracks the changes. It only addresses the situation right on the Equator so visually the TAO/TRITON graphic contains more information. But the below table turns visual information into quantitative information so it may be useful. The degrees of coverage shown in the rightmost two columns shows that the extent of the warm water directly on the Equator has been reduced in recent weeks. The way I constructed the table, the 1.0C anomaly as an example includes all water warmer than 1.0C so the 1.5C anomaly is included within it as well as the 2.0C anomaly which you can tell by the way I recorded the westward and eastward coordinates. I could have constructed this table in a different way. Note the 3C anomaly no longer exists. The 2.5C anomaly also no longer exists as of mid-week. As this El Nino decays I am including the less warm anomalies in the table below.

Comparing Now to January 19, 2016
Subareas of the Warm Anomaly Westward Extension Eastward Extension Degrees of Coverage
Today January 19, 2016 Today January 19, 2026 Today January 19, 2016
3C Anomaly Gone 158W Gone 134W 0 24
2.5C Anomaly 100W 165W Land 110W 5 55
2.0C Anomaly 110W 170W Land 100W 15 70
1.5C Anomaly ?* 175W Land Land ?* 80
1.0C Anomaly 170E 175E Land Land 105 90

* The western portion of the anomaly is all South of the Equator and the above graphic only shows where the anomalies are on the Equator. The Eastern portion has now extended back to 135W and is again in the ONI Measurement Area.

I calculate the ONI each week using a method that I have devised. To refine my calculation, I have divided the 170W to 120W ONI measuring area into five subregions (which I have designated from west to east as A through E) with a location bar shown under the TAO/TRITON Graphic). I use a rough estimation approach to integrate what I see below and record that in the table I have constructed. Then I take the average of the anomalies I estimated for each of the five subregions. So as of Monday April 4, in the afternoon working from the April 3 TAO/TRITON report, this is what I calculated.

Calculation of ONI from TAO/TRITON Graphic
Anomaly Segment Estimated Anomaly
  Last Week This Week
A. 170W to 160W 1.6 1.2
B. 160W to 150W 1.5 1.4
C. 150W to 140W 1.3 1.4
D. 140W to 130W 1.2 1.6
E. 130W to 120W 1.2 1.7
Total 6.8 7.3
Total divided by five subregions i.e. the ONI (6.8)/5 = 1.4 (7.3)5 = 1.5

 

My estimate of the daily Nino 3.4 ONI after rounding is up to 1.5. NOAA has again reported the weekly ONI to be 1.5.  Nino 4.0 is being reported as being slightly lower at 1.1. Nino 3.0 is being reported as slightly higher at 1.6. The action which I think is most important to track right now is in Nino 1+2 which is now reported as having soared to 1.5. This is probably due to Kelvin Wave #5 surfacing with some help from the MJO and marks the last Hurrah for this El Nino. This is summarized in the following NOAA Table. I am only showing the currently issued version as the prior values are shown in the small graphics on the right with this graphic.

April 4, 2016 Nino Readings

ONI Recent History

The official reading for Jan/Feb/Mar is now reported as 2.0. I have discussed before the mystery of how the CFSv2 values above get translated into the ERSST.v4 values shown below and if NOAA feels that working with two sets of books is a good way to operate, who am I argue. Many businesses do the same thing. As you can see this El Nino peaked in NDJ and is now declining and depending on what system you use it is either the 2nd or 3rd strongest El Nino since modern records were kept which is considered to be 1950. You could argue for it being #1 based on a week of readings but few are buying that argument. Still #2 or #3 means it is one of the strongest ever based on the way these events are measured. I will be writing more about that soon in a separate article. I believe the measurement system is inadequate re being useful in forecasting Worldwide weather impacts.

April 4, 2016 Recent ONI History Update
 

The full history of the ONI readings can be found here.   The MEI index readings can be found here.

Is this El Nino a Modoki?

It did not evolve as a Modoki unless you consider it to be a continuation of the Faux El Nino Modoki of 2014/2015 which is a possible interpretation. But the Walker Circulation appears to be much like that of a Modoki. These graphics help explain this.

Although I discussed the Kelvin Waves earlier, now seems to be the best place to show the evolution of the subsurface temperatures.

April 4, 2016 Kelvin Wave History

Watching an El Nino evolve is like watching paint dry. The undercutting cool anomaly is again expanding to the east quite rapidly actually now edging east of 100W which means it has now undercut all of the NINO 3.4 Measurement Area.  All that remains is for "The Grand Switch" to occur with the cool anomaly reversing positions with the warm anomaly.  So either this will be a slow process or some event will just flush the warm water to the west. It may be the next Inactive Phase of the MJO that does just that. You can also see cooler water rising but still at depth (200m) in the Eastern Pacific.  It will replace the warm water in a few months. You can also see the break in the warm pool at 150W which I discuss elsewhere and another one at 110W.

SST Surface Anomaly Hovmoeller

Here is another way of looking at it: Unlike the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Hovmoeller (I call it the Kelvin Wave Hovmoeller) which takes an average down to 300 meters, this just measures the surface temperature anomaly. It is the surface that interacts with the atmosphere and causes convection and also the warming and cooling of the atmosphere. A major advantage of the Hovmoeller method of displaying information is that it shows the history so I do not need to show a sequence of snap shots of the conditions at different points in time. Nevertheless this Hovmoeller provides a good way to visually see the evolution of this El Nino and later track its demise.  You can easily see how the intensity peaked in November 2015, declined in December and then declined substantially in late February and continues to decline.

SST Anomalies Hovmoeller

One can easily see the historical evolution of this El Nino and the "hot spots" that existed in December and which resulted in the very high ONI readings. You can see at the very bottom of this graphic, which shows the most recent readings, the easing of the extreme temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 Measurement area (see the scale on the right: red is less warm than dark red) namely 170W to 120W. That explains the reduction in NOAA ONI estimates. That is likely to continue to be the trend. You can see the steady decay in the anomalies from the east between 80W and beyond the Dateline. You also can clearly see the separation of the Warm Anomaly from the coast of South America. You also see the drifting to the west which is the beginning of the return voyage of the warm pool to the Western Pacific. That is what the ENSO CYCLE is all about. Back and Forth....Back and Forth. 

Recent Impacts of Weather Mostly El Nino but possibly Also PDO and AMO Impacts.

Below are snapshots of 30 Day temperature and precipitation departures over the life of this El Nino. The end date of the 30 day period is shown in the graphic.  It is a way of seeing how the impacts of this El Nino have unfolded.

June 15, 2015 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures.

July 13, 2015 30 Day Temperature and Preciptiation Departures

August 10 2015 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

Sept 5, 2015 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

Oct 3, 2015 30 day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

30 day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

November 30, 2015 30 day temperature and precipitation departures.

January 4, 2016 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

February 1, 2016 30 Day Temperature and Weather Departures.

Feb  29, 2016 temperature and Precipitation Departures.

March 7, 2016 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

April  2016 20 day temperature and precipitation departures.

Remember this is a 30 day average and last week I used a different graphic so this can not be compared to last week but is best compared with last month. The La Nina pattern persists for much of the West with respect to both precipitation and temperature but is a normal El Nino for the Mississippi Valley in March. Northern California was wet but it is hard to say if that looks like El Nino or La Nina. This is one strange El Nino and for the 2nd or 3rd strongest in modern history it is a mystery that has not been given adequate attention. 

Lets take a look at 90 Days.

April 4, 2016 90 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures.

Well that does not look like an El Nino pattern to me but more like a La Nina pattern for precipitation and just plain warm pretty much everywhere which is neither an El Nino nor a La Nina Pattern.

I realize this is a lot of graphics but one needs to look at the history of an event to assess it. As you can see, so far we are not having the expected El Nino Impacts in CONUS.

El Nino in the News

Is this Climate Change or climate cycles?

Here comes La Nina

Putting it all Together.

This El Nino has peaked in intensity and is now in rapid decline. We are beginning to speculate on the winter of 2016/2017 which now according to some of the models seems increasingly likely to be a La Nina.

The below is the CPC/IRI forecast issued on March 17, 2016. It is important to remember that the first report in each month is based on a survey of meteorologists and the second report later in the month is based on the analysis of the forecast models. It is a minor difference but a difference.

March 21, 2016 IRI/CPC Plume-Based ENSO Analysis

You can see the slower decline of the El Nino which has been obvious to us for a long time. The new Plume-Based model results show increased confidence that next winter will be a La Nina winter.

We have suggested that it is possible the models will be wrong about how fast the Eastern Pacific Warm Pool moves back towards its La Nina location and it may well be that next winter will be more of a Neutral year or even have some characteristics of an El Nino Modoki and thus be wetter than a typical year as the Warm Pool may still be more in the Central Pacific than shifted all the way west to its La Nina position.

We have reason to believe that the models may not be taking into account all factors such as the Equatorial ocean currents and that this El Nino may not transition to a La Nina quite as rapidly as some of the models are predicting.

What is really strange is the NOAA's own model has until recently disagreed with their official IRI/CPC Model. What is that all about?

 CFS.V2 SST Forecast

But, notice the mean of the NOAA model is NO LONGER forecasting a mild El Nino for next winter. It is too soon to begin discussing the Spring Prediction Barrier this week but I would take all these forecasts with a grain of salt at this point in time. It is only April 4 and too early to forecast next winter. But there has been an adjustment  to this CFS.v2 model and this topic is discussed in one of the articles shown in the El Nino News section of this report.

This is an interesting graphic.

Prior Years ONI correlation with Next Years ONI

The problem is the poor fit with the data. Here is the full article by Anthony G Barnston a consultant to NOAA who posts on Climate.gov.  I have done my own analysis which I published in a previous issue of this weather column. Some of the researchers attempt to segment the data by the magnitude of the ONI value. It seems that this makes a difference. I have provided the links to some of these articles but other than what is posted on Climate.gov I am reluctant to extract graphics from the works of others so I provide the link to their full article. Generally they would give me permission and I think I have permission from one of the authors to use his material but it gets complicated for me as I am spontaneous and I am writing this section of my report early Sunday Morning and I have a 9pm Monday deadline so it is difficult for me to routinely attempt to get permissions so I just provide a link and an explanation of why readers may want to visit that link.

This is a topic that is getting a lot of attention.

Forecasting Beyond Five Years.

So in terms of long-term forecasting, none of this is very difficult to figure out actually if you are looking at say a five-year or longer forecast. The research on Ocean Cycles is fairly conclusive and widely available to those who seek it out. I have provided a lot of information on this in prior weeks and all of that information is preserved in Part II of my report in the Section on Low Frequency Cycles 3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS.  It includes decade by decade predictions through 2050. Predicting a particular year is far harder.

The odds of a climate shift for CONUS taking place has increased. It may be in progress. It may require one more La Nina. But it appears that "McCabe Condition A" is coming soon. Right now we seem to have a blend of McCabe Conditions A and C which are opposites which may explain some of the forecasting difficult. The AMO is pretty much neutral at this point so it may need to become a bit more negative for the McCabe A pattern to become established.

TABLE OF CONTENTS FOR PART II OF THIS REPORT  The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page II where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you. 

A. Worldwide Weather: Current and Three-Month Outlooks: 15 Month Outlooks  (Usefully bookmarked as it provides automatically updated current weather conditions and forecasts at all times. It does not replace local forecasts but does provide U.S. national and regional forecasts and, with less detail, international forecasts)

B. Factors Impacting the Outlook

1. Very High Frequency (short-term) Cycles PNA, AO,NAO (but the AO and NAO may also have a low frequency component.)

2. Medium Frequency Cycles such as ENSO and IOD

3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS.

C. Computer Models and Methodologies

D. Reserved for a Future Topic  (Possibly Predictable Economic Impacts)

TABLE OF CONTENTS FOR PART III OF THIS REPORT - GLOBAL WARMING WHICH SOME CALL CLIMATE CHANGE. The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page III where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.

D1. Introduction

D2. Climate Impacts of Global Warming

D3. Economic Impacts of Global Warming

D4. Reports from Around the World on Impacts of Global Warming

Click here for a list of Sig Silber's Weather Posts

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