econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 16 February 2016

February 15, 2016, Weather and Climate Report - La Nina Weather Continues

Written by Sig Silber

This ENSO event records as an El Nino but behaves like a La Nina with respect to CONUS, especially in January, and it would appear most if not all of February. Is it simply because it is a bit westerly displaced? Is it because it is so strong that it has forced the Jet Stream north rather than south as a normal El Nino would do? Is it Climate Change? It may be that the Jet Stream it is so far north that CONUS will receive precipitation from the Southern Branch of the Jet stream - sort of a winter Monsoon - until the situation returns to normal for an El Nino. I am a bit skeptical of that part of the forecast. All of this is discussed in the report this week.

 weather.caption

 

This is the Regular Edition of my weekly Weather and Climate Update Report. Additional information can be found here on Page II of the Global Economic Intersection Weather and Climate Report.

Some may wonder what I mean when I say this El Nino is westerly displaced. Perhaps this graphic will help explain what I mean.

February 15, four week SST Departures

Notice the dark red area between 165W and 130W. Normally at the peak of an El Nino that would be over towards the coast of South America. And this is a four week average. The daily picture which I show later but which is not artist drawn is even more dramatic.The impact of this is that the major part of the convection occurs where the warmest water is. That shifts the Walker Circulation which is the convection rising moving east due to the rotation of the Earth and falling as precipitation further west than usual. We are actually staring to see wetter conditions to the west of this point which is supposed to be the dry side of the El Nino. This simply indicates the El Nino is in decline. 

NOAA via one of their lead consultants has issued an update on the current El Nino. It is very informative so I have decided to post most of it. The full article can be found here.

February 2016 El Niño update: and Q & A

Author: 

Emily Becker

Thursday, February 11, 2016

Despite getting a little boost from some strong winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean in January, the warmer-than-average ocean temperatures that drive El Niño have likely peaked. Now that we’re looking out from the other side of the mountain, let’s answer some questions.

So is this the strongest El Niño on record, or what?

This is definitely one of the strongest three going back to 1950.  It’s hard to say definitively what single El Niño is the strongest, because there are a lot of different ways to measure strength.

The Oceanic Niño Index, the three-month-average sea surface temperature departure from the long-term normal in one region of the Pacific Ocean, is the primary number we use to measure the ocean part of El Niño, and that value for November – January is 2.3°C, tied with the same period in 1997-98. There are other areas of the ocean that we watch, though, including the eastern Pacific (warmer in 1997/98) and the western Pacific (warmer in 2015/16).

Also, don’t forget the “SO” part of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which is the all-important atmospheric response. All that extra heat in the tropical Pacific Ocean warms up the atmosphere above it, leading to more rising air, which changes the circulation all around the globe. By one measure (the EQSOI), the El Niño-related changes in the atmospheric circulation in 1997/98 and 2015/16 are tied; by another (the SOI), 1997/98 was stronger.

Location of the stations used for the Southern Oscillation Index (Tahiti and Darwin, black dots), the Equatorial Southern Oscillation Index (eastern equatorial Pacific and Indonesia regions, outlined in blue), and the Niño3.4 region in the east-central tropical Pacific Ocean for sea surface temperature (red dashed line). NOAA Climate.gov image by Fiona Martin.

We also look at tropical Pacific near-surface winds , subsurface ocean temperatures, upper-atmosphere winds, cloudiness… the list goes on! The image of tropical cloudiness (an indicator of rainfall) below is a good example of how a single index number over a single region doesn't’t give you the whole picture of an El Niño’s “personality.”

El Nino clouds and rainfall, El Nino 1997/98, El Nino 2015/2016

Clouds and precipitation during January 1998 (left) and January 2016 (right). Clouds can be detected by satellites because they block the amount of longwave radiation leaving the earth’s surface (OLR). Image by Michelle L’Heureux and climate.gov, from CPC data.

The El Niño-related cloudiness and rainfall pattern extended farther east along the equator in 1998, stretching all the way to the South American coast. These patterns are closely linked to the changes El Niño causes to global circulation, and therefore to El Niño’s impact on weather and climate.

But I saw in the media that this month’s Niño3.4 is a few hundredths of a degree above January 1997. Isn’t that a record?

Maybe. Maybe not. Part of the difficulty in assigning “record” status in a close contest is that we just can’t measure the temperature of every molecule of water in the tropical Pacific. (And satellites don’t have magical space thermometers.) So there’s always some uncertainty in the measurement.

We checked with our colleagues at NOAA’s National Center for Environmental Information*, who told us that, for this dataset, the ERSSTv4, the uncertainty in those final numbers beyond the decimal point prevents a declaration of “record!” The uncertainty in this one dataset is not huge, as you can see in the shaded area below, but it’s bigger than the difference between 1998 and 2016.

Nino3.4 index El Nino 1997/98 and El Nino 2015/16

Monthly Niño3.4 Index, from ERSSTv4 data. Shaded area indicates the uncertainty. Image by Michelle L’Heureux and climate.gov, from NCEI data.

Hey, wait a second. Last month, you said the October – December Niño3.4 average was 2.3°C above normal, but now it says 2.2°C. What’s going on there?

This is related to the uncertainty I just mentioned. At the end of every month, there are some missing observations from that month. These observations have to be filled in using a statistical method, and it's not finalized until the end of the next month. There aren't a lot of these points, but enough that they can slightly change the average, which is what happened for October–December.

What’s the deal with California rain? And the drought?

Tom just wrote about that!

Was the East Coast blizzard caused by El Niño?

It’s just not possible to attribute a single storm to one climate influence, especially such a complicated storm as a snowy nor’easter. A lot of components had to come together to create that blizzard, including a cold snap, warm Atlantic Ocean waters to feed moisture to the storm, and a strong frontal system, among others. El Niño’s fingerprint may have been present in some of those factors, but it’s really tough to separate it out. El Niño does tend to create conditions that steer storms across the Gulf states, Florida, Georgia, and the Carolinas; typically, these storms will exit to the Atlantic south of Maryland/Virginia. The more northward track of this storm is somewhat unusual for El Niño-related conditions, but not unheard of.

Let's Now Focus on the Current (Right Now to 5 Days Out) Weather Situation.

A more complete version of this report with daily forecasts is available in Part II. This is a summary of that more extensive report. This link Worldwide Weather: Current and Three-Month Outlooks: 15 Month Outlooks will take you directly to that set of information but it may take a few seconds for your browser to go through the two-step process of getting to Page II and then moving to the Section within Page II that is specified by this link.

First, here is a national animation of weather front and precipitation forecasts with four 6-hour projections of the conditions that will apply covering the next 24 hours and a second day of two 12-hour projections the second of which is the forecast for 48 hours out and to the extent it applies for 12 hours, this animation is intended to provide coverage out to 60 hours. Beyond 60 hours, additional maps are available at the link provided above.

current highs and lows

The explanation for the coding used in these maps, i.e. the full legend, can be found here although it includes some symbols that are no longer shown in the graphic because they are implemented by color coding.

The map below is the mid-atmosphere 7-Day chart rather than the surface highs and lows and weather features. In some cases it provides a clearer less confusing picture as it shows only the major pressure gradients.This graphic auto-updates so when you look at it you will see NOAA's latest thinking. The speed at which these troughs and ridges travel across the nation will determine the timing of weather impacts. This graphic auto-updates I think every six hours and it changes a lot.

7 Day 500 MB Geopotential Forecast

Right now it is showing for Day 7 a fairly significant ridge over the West and a huge trough moving towards the East Coast. That would normally mean that one could decide what sort of weather one prefers and adjust their travel plans accordingly.  Because "Thickness Lines" are shown by those green lines on this graphic it is a good place to define "Thickness"  and its uses. The 540 Level general signifies equal chances for snow at sea level locations.

The level of storm activity in the Western Pacific had picked up when the MJO transitioned to its active phase but that then slowly shifted to its inactive phase. But the MJO may be shifting back to its active phase this week and peaking in about two weeks. Hopefully NOAA will take this into account in their next seasonal update to be released on February 18. The MJO is thought to be relatively unimportant during the winter but perhaps a strong El Nino increases the relevance of the MJO: another research question for NOAA. 

Notice the Northern Pacific is like a giant anticyclone with clockwise motion so that which gets sent west due to El Nino is to some extent returned to North America but at higher latitudes.

Western Pacific Tropical Activity

As I am looking at the below graphic Monday evening February 15, I still see a northern shifted weather pattern.This is the opposite of what one would expect with a strong El Nino so that again is something that needs to be explained. This graphic updates automatically so it most likely will look different by the time you look at it as the weather patterns are moving from west to east.

 Water Vapor Imagery

Below is an analysis of projected tropical hazards and benefits over an approximately two-week period. This graphic is scheduled to update on Tuesday and I am reading the Feb 9, 2016 Version and looking at Week 2 of that forecast.
Tropical Hazards

Mostly I see for the period February 17 -  February 23, 2016 a moderate chance of below average precipitation for Northern Australia and part of the Maritime Continent with a moderate chance of cool conditions extending to Southern China and Indochina.. There is a also a moderate chance of below average precipitation for parts of Africa. A small part of Brazil is projected to have below normal precipitation. You can see that the majority of the impacts are to the west of the of the Date Line.

Below is a graphic which highlights the forecasted surface Highs and the Lows re air pressure on Day 6 (the Day 3 forecast is available on Page II of this Report). This graphic also auto-updates.

Day 6 Weather Forecast

In recent weeks, the projected location and strength of the Aleutian Low has varied a lot. On some days, the forecast is showing a split low with each of the two lows weaker than a combined single Low. Right now the forecasted Low has an hPa of 976 which is quite intense (the average in the winter is 1001hPa and 994 hPa for a non-split Low) but not quite as intense (i.e. it is higher) than recently. It is a unified single low just a bit further west than is ideal for El Nino providing precipitation to California and points south. The big problem is that we do not have the RRR but the Western High Pressure System extents into the Pacific and this "protects" California from Pacific storms. The rapidly shifting position of the Low makes a big difference in how storms are steered. A longer discussion of the climate of Beringia and the role of the Aleutian Low is in Part II of this Report:  2. Medium Frequency Cycles such as ENSO and IOD

There was yesterday a very large and strong Low Pressure System forecast on Day 6 to be centered north of the Great Lakes which would impact that part of CONUS. It is not as prominent today but that may be because it has moved further south and is not as easy to see.

Looking at the current activity of the Jet Stream one can certainly see how the Jet Stream is meandering but entering North America north of CONUS.

Current Jet Stream

And here is the forecast out five days.

Jet Stream Five Days Out

It still shows the Jet Stream staying north for the Western part of CONUS.  Of course this is a forecast and changes daily or perhaps even more frequently. But not all weather is controlled by the Jet Stream (which is a high altitude phenomenon) but it plays a major role in steering storm systems. You can see the Southern Branch of the Jet Stream. Whether that can impact Southern Tier weather remains to be seen. 

To see how the pattern is projected to evolve, please click here. In addition to the shaded areas which show an interpretation of the Jet Stream, one can also see the wind vectors (arrows) at the 300 Mb level.

This longer animation shows how the jet stream is crossing the Pacific and when it reaches the U.S. West Coast is going every which way.

Here is a very flexible computer graphic. You can adjust what is being displayed by clicking on "earth" adjusting the parameters and then clicking again on "earth" to remove the menu. Right now it is set up to show the 500 hPa wind patterns which is the main way of looking at synoptic weather patterns.

And when we look at Sea Surface anomalies below,

Daily SST Anomaly

We see a lot of them not just along the Equator related to El Nino.

The overall appearance of the warm anomaly along the Equator is that it is shifted to the west perhaps by 20 degree Longitude from a typical El Nino if there is such a thing. You can clearly see this in the graphic...just look along the Equator in the Pacific for that very red area from 170W towards the east. That is an El Nino pattern but the warm temperature anomalies off the coast of Ecuador and Peru never fully developed and now are withdrawing. The intense warm water off the West Coast of the U.S. is still there but much less so than a few months ago. It is still warmer than climatology but not by much. The El Nino Subsurface Reservoir of Warm Water (the warm pool) is withdrawing from the Coast of Ecuador and Peru. To me it looks like the overall Northern Pacific is indeed PDO Positive (the horse shoe pattern with the cool anomaly inside the horse shoe shape but that is just an eyeball estimate. The water off the East Coast of the U.S. is warm but the four-week analysis shows both coasts having their anomalies becoming cooler over the last four weeks. The North Atlantic is cooler than normal. Waters around Australia are warm to the southeast but cool off their west coast. The waters off of Japan are now warm. The water west of Africa particular to the south are warm. the warm water further north is worrisome re this year's hurricane season.

Below I show the changes over the last month in the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies.

February 15, 2015, Changes in Weekly SST Departures.

Since these are "departures" or "anomalies", it is not a seasonal pattern that is being shown. Comparing a four-week graphic to a prior four-week graphic is always tricky since only 25% of the data has changed and I am not showing the former graphic (it is in last week's report). I add the new one, compare and comment on the change and then delete the old one to keep this report to a manageable size. What I see as I look at both (before deleting the prior version) is a reduction in the north central Pacific cool anomaly (which helps define the PDO) and a reduction of the warm anomaly off the western coast of South America which suggests to me the strengthening of the Humboldt or Peru Current which wipes out the El Nino and cooler water off of Southeast Asia and a decline in the warm anomaly in the Labrador Sea possibly meaning less polar ice melt right now. There is definitely more going on in the Southern Hemisphere than the Northern Hemisphere. 

6 -  10 Day Outlook

Now let us focus on the 6 - 14 Day Forecast for which I generally only show the 8 - 14 Day Maps. The 6 - 10 Day maps are always available in Part II of this report but in the winter I often show both maps as the forecasted weather patterns change during that nine day period.

To put the forecasts which NOAA tends to call Outlooks into perspective, I am going to show the three-month FMA and the updated single month of February forecasts and then discuss the 8 - 14 day Maps and the 6 - 14 Day NOAA Discussion within that framework.

First - Temperature

Here is the Three-Month Temperature Outlook issued on January 21, 2016:

FMa  2016 Temperature Outlook Issued January 21, 2016

Here is the updated February Temperature Outlook.

February Early Outlook Temperature Outlook Issued on January 31, 2016

Below is the current 6 - 10 Day and 8 - 14 Day Temperature Outlook Maps which will auto-update and thus be current when you view them. It covers the nine days following the tail end of the current week. I have included both today and probably will continue to do that all winter as the patterns are moving from west to east fairly rapidly.

As I view these two maps on February 15 (it updates each day), it appears that the end of February will begin by being warmer than climatology almost everywhere. This will be a relief to the East Coast but that relief may be short lived.

6 - 10 Day Temperature Outlook

6 - 10 Day Temperature Outlook

8 - 14 Day Temperature Outlook  

8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

Now - Precipitation 

Here is the three-month Precipitation Outlook issued on January 21, 2016:

FMA 2016 Precipitation Outlook Issued January 21, 2016

Here is the updated February Precipitation Outlook.

Feb 2016 Updated Precipitation Outlook Issued on January 31, 2016

Below are the current 6 - 10 Day and 8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook Maps which will auto-update and thus be current when you view them. It covers the nine days following the tail end of the current week. I have included both today and probably will continue to do that all winter as the patterns are moving from west to east fairly rapidly.

As I view these two maps on February 15 (it updates each day), it looks like the dry area expands as the nine-day period unfolds.

6 - 10 Day Precipitation Outlook

6 - 10 Day Precipitation Outlook

8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook 

Current 8 - 14 Day Precipitation Outlook

Here are excerpts from the NOAA discussion released today February 15, 2016. It covers the full nine-day period and this week I have shown both the 6 -10 Day and the  8 - 14 Day Maps.

6-10 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 21 - 25 2016

TODAY'S MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION  PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE A STRONG TROUGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC, ALEUTIANS, AND THE BERING SEA. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS TROUGH, A RIDGE IS PREDICTED OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ALASKA AND A TROUGH IS FORECAST OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA.  THE BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART DEPICTS ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ALASKA AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE GENERALLY PREDICTED OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THE BLENDED 500-HPA HEIGHT CHART PRIMARILY CONSISTS OF THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS FROM THE ECMWF, GFS, AND CANADIAN MODELS AND IS BASED IN LARGE PART ON CONSIDERATIONS OF RECENT SKILL AND ON ANALOG CORRELATIONS, WHICH MEASURE HOW CLOSELY THE FORECAST PATTERN MATCHES CASES THAT HAVE OCCURRED IN THE PAST. 

ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR MOST OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A RIDGE PREDICTED OVER  WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS DUE TO A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA AND ASSOCIATED NEAR NORMAL HEIGHTS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH AXIS. ANOMALOUS SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA.

THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND THE LARGE AREA OF ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS  ENHANCE PROBABILITIES FOR BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS  EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. DOWNSTREAM OF THIS RIDGE,  FORECAST TROUGHING LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN  PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS  ALSO FAVORED FOR THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS AHEAD OF A MEAN TROUGH FORECAST OVER  EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. MOIST FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC ENHANCES PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTH COASTAL ALASKA, THE ALASKA PANHANDLE, AND PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, WHILE THE RIDGE FORECAST OVER EASTERN ALASKA FAVORS BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN ALASKA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 6-10 DAY PERIOD: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE 500-HPA PATTERN OFFSET BY LARGE DIFFERENCES AMONG THE DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL SURFACE TOOLS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.

8-14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR FEB 23 - 29 2016 

TODAY'S ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE PREDICTED 500-HPA CIRCULATION PATTERN OVER THE NORTH AMERICAN FORECAST DOMAIN FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD AND ARE SIMILAR TO THAT PREDICTED FOR THE 6 TO 10 DAY PERIOD. TROUGHS ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND EASTERN NORTH AMERICA, WHILE A RIDGE IS FORECAST OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ALASKA. THE ENSEMBLE SPAGHETTI CHARTS GENERALLY INDICATE LOW SPREAD OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS, AND MODERATE SPREAD OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS. THE BLENDED HEIGHT CHART INDICATES ABOVE NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS AND EASTERN ALASKA, AND BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS OVER SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA AND THE ALEUTIANS. NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.

FORECAST RIDGING OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA LEADS TO ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE CONUS. CONVERSELY, BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MEAN TROUGH PREDICTED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR EASTERN NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF THE PREDICTED MEAN TROUGH AXIS. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORED FOR MOST OF ALASKA AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE ALEUTIANS.

BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MOST OF THE ROCKIES, THE CENTRAL CONUS, AND THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RIDGE PREDICTED OVER WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR PARTS OF FLORIDA AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF A MEAN TROUGH PREDICTED OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. THERE ARE ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA AND PARTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AHEAD OF A TROUGH PREDICTED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PACIFIC.  CONVERSELY, BELOW MEDIAN PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA IN ASSOCIATION WITH PREDICTED RIDGING OVER NORTHEASTERN ALASKA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE FOR THE 8-14 DAY PERIOD IS: AVERAGE, 3 OUT OF 5, DUE TO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE ENSEMBLE MEAN SOLUTIONS OFFSET BY MODERATELY HIGH MODEL SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS.

THE NEXT SET OF LONG-LEAD MONTHLY AND SEASONAL OUTLOOKS WILL BE RELEASED ON FEBRUARY 18

Some might find this analysis interesting as the organization which prepares it looks at things from a very detailed perspective and their analysis provides a lot of information on the history and evolution of this El Nino.

Analogs to Current Conditions

Now let us take a detailed look at the "Analogs" which NOAA provides related to the 5 day period centered on 3 days ago and the 7 day period centered on 4 days ago. "Analog" means that the weather pattern then resembles the recent weather pattern and was used in some way to predict the 6 - 14 day Outlook.

Here are today's analogs in chronological order although this information is also available with the analog dates listed by the level of correlation. I find the chronological order easier for me to work with. There is a second set of analogs associated with the outlook but I have not been analyzing this second set of information. This first set applies to the 5 and 7 day observed pattern prior to today. The second set which I am not using relates to the forecast outlook 6 - 10 days out to similar patterns that have occurred in the past during the dates covered by the 6 - 10 Day Outlook. That may also be useful information but they put this set of analogs in the discussion with the other set available by a link so I am assuming that this set of analogs is the most meaningful.

Analog

Centered

Day

ENSO

Phase

PDO AMO

Other Comments

Jan 31, 1954 El Nino - +  
Feb 3, 1977 El Nino + - Traditional El Nino but dry
Feb 14, 1977 El Nino + - Traditional El Nino but dry
Feb 15, 1977 El Nino + - Traditional El Nino but dry
Feb 8, 1988 El Nino + - Modoki Type I
Feb 14, 1991 Neutral - - Followed by El Nino Modoki Type II
Feb 13, 2008 La Nina - +  

 

One thing that jumped out at me right away was the very tight spread among the analogs from January 31 to February 15 which is just a bit more than two weeks. It may simply indicate that we are in the heart of winter or suggest that there is a strong basis for this forecast.

1977 showed up a lot in the analogs. That was a particularly dry El Nino. It is somewhat consistent not surprisingly with the 6 - 14 Day Outlook.

1976-1977 El Nino

It was followed by a wet El Nino Modoki, which is not in the forecast but could happen if this El Nino is slow retreating to the West - which I think is possible. So next winter might be the wet one. Perhaps I should mention that this was when the Pacific "Shifted" to PDO Positive and weather patterns in the U.S. especially the West Coast changed to a wetter phase which started the following year and lasted until at least 1998. You can read about that here and many other places.

There are this time five El Nino Analogs and one ENSO Neutral Analog and just one La Nina Analog suggesting that El Nino is again in full control over our weather for the next 6 - 14 Days. But the prevalence of the analog associated with the 1976/1977 Dry El Nino makes drawing conclusions about the 6 - 14 Day Outlook difficult.

The phases of the ocean cycles in the analogs are clearly indicating McCabe Condition A which suggests that our weather may be wetter than suggested in the 6 - 14 Day Forecast but perhaps not until March. The seminal work on the impact of the PDO and AMO on U.S. climate can be found here. Water Planners might usefully pay attention to the low-frequency cycles such as the AMO and the PDO as the media tends to focus on the current and short-term forecasts to the exclusion of what we can reasonably anticipate over multi-decadal periods of time.

McCabe Maps modified to include the subtitles

You may have to squint but the drought probabilities are shown on the map and also indicated by the color coding with shades of red indicating higher than 25% of the years are drought years (25% or less of average precipitation for that area) and shades of blue indicating less than 25% of the years are drought years. Thus drought is defined as the condition that occurs 25% of the time and this ties in nicely with each of the four pairs of two phases of the AMO and PDO.

Historical Anomaly Analysis

When I see the same dates showing up often I find it interesting to consult this list.

With respect to relating analog dates to ENSO Events, the following table might be useful. In most cases this table will allow the reader to draw appropriate conclusions from NOAA supplied analogs. If the analogs are not associated with an El Nino or La Nina they probably are not as easily interpreted. Remember, an analog is indicating a similarity to a weather pattern in the past. So if the analogs are not associated with a prior El Nino or prior La Nina the computer models are not likely to generate a forecast that is consistent with an El Nino or a La Nina.

  El Ninos La Ninas
  Start Finish Max ONI PDO AMO Start Finish Max ONI PDO AMO
            DJF 1950 J FM 1951 -1.4 - N
T   JJA 1951  DJF 1952 0.9 - +          
   DJF 1953  DJF 1954 0.8 - + AMJ 1954  AMJ 1956 -1.6 - +
M MAM 1957   JJA 1958 1.7 + -          
M SON 1958  JFM 1959 0.6 + -          
M   JJA 1963  JFM 1964 1.2 - - AMJ 1964  DJF 1965 -0.8 - -
M  MJJ 1965 MAM 1966 1.8 - - NDJ 1967 MAM 1968 -0.8 - -
M OND 1968   MJJ 1969 1.0 - -          
T  JAS 1969   DJF 1970 0.8 N -  JJA 1970  DJF 1972 -1.3 - -
T AMJ 1972  FMA 1973 2.0 - - MJJ 1973 JJA 1974 -1.9 - -
            SON 1974 FMA 1976 -1.6 - -
T ASO 1976  JFM 1977 0.8 + -          
M ASO 1977

 DJF  1978

0.8 N -          
M SON 1979  JFM 1980 0.6 + -          
T MAM 1982  MJJ  1983 2.1 + - SON 1984 MJJ 1985 -1.1 + -
M ASO 1986  JFM 1988 1.6 + - AMJ 1988 AMJ 1989 -1.8 - -
M MJJ 1991    JJA 1992 1.6 + -          
M SON 1994   FMA 1995 1.0 - - JAS 1995 FMA 1996 -1.0 + +
T AMJ 1997   AMJ 1998 2.3 + + JJA 1998 FMA 2001 -1.6 - +
M MJJ 2002   JFM 2003 1.3 + N          
M  JJA 2004 MAM 2005 0.7 + +          
T ASO 2006   DJF 2007 1.0 - + JAS 2007  MJJ 2008 -1.4 - +
M JJA 2009 MAM 2010 1.3 N + JJA 2010 MAM 2011 -1.4 + +
            JAS 2011 FMA 2012 -0.9 - +
T MAM 2015 NA 1.0 + N          

 

Progress of the Warm Event

Let us start with the SOI.

Below is the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) reported by Queensland, Australia. The first column is the tentative daily reading, the second is the 30 day moving/running average and the third is the 90 day moving/running average.

Date Current Reading 30-Day Average 90 Day Average
Feb 9 -6.9 -12.36 -11.4
Feb 10 +0.7 -11.61 -11.47
Feb 11 +9.1 -10.71 -11.33
Feb 12 +2.6 -10.06 -11.25
Feb 13 -14.1 -9.82 -11.41
Feb 14 -19.1 -9.64 -11.67
Feb 15 -28.9 -9.80 -12.11

 

The Inactive Phase of the MJO is weakening and switching over to its active phase so we are beginning to see some SOI values which are more negative. The 30-day average, which is the most widely used measure, as of February 15 is reported at -9.80 which although it is definitely a reading that is associated with an El Nino (usually required to be more negative than -8.0 but some consider -6.0 value good enough) it is much lower (smaller negative number) than last week. The 90-day average remains in El Nino territory at -12.11 little change from last week. The SOI continues to be indicative of an El Nino Event in progress but it is pretty much passed the time of year where it is very meaningful. 

The MJO or Madden Julian Oscillation is an important factor in regulating the SOI and Kelvin Waves and other tropical weather characteristics. More information on the MJO can be found here. Here is another good resource and it shows that right now the MJO is active in the Pacific Ocean.

Low-Level Wind Anomalies

Here are the low-level wind anomalies. In October, the area from 180W to 160W was of interest and quite intense. There then was an area of interest at 160W which also was quite intense. Now, calm appears to prevail but there recently was a WWB (Westerly Wind Burst) in January near and east of the Date Line related to Tropical Storm Pali which has long since dissipated. But look at the intensity of the wind anomaly associated with that WWB: 14 That might be "all she wrote" for this El Nino as calm winds prevail.

Low Level Wlind Anomalies

In the below graphic, you can see how the convection pattern recently appeared to be shifting ever so slightly a bit to the east but not as far east as we would expect with a strong El Nino. Now that slight movement to the East has reversed. You can also see convection firing up in the Indian Ocean which may or may not be significant.

OLR Anomalies Along the Equator

Let us now take a look at the progress of Kelvin Waves which are the key to the situation. You can see all five of the Kelvin Waves which created this El Nino in this Hovmoeller graphic. From the earliest to the most recent they can be named #1 through #5, a new episode of warming from 150W to 100W. But this Kelvin Wave appears to be less intense than Kelvin Waves #3 and #4 and is already beginning to leave the NINO 3.4 Measurement Area. This El Nino is dying but not without a fight.  I have been wrong before on Kelvin Wave #4 so I am hesitant to say this but it does look to me like Kelvin Wave #5 will not make it very far east and is already in its decline phase. But it does slow the retreat to the west of the Eastern Pacific Subsurface Warm Pool. That is why I believe the transition to ENSO Neutral will proceed more slowly than some have predicted.

Kelvin Waves Auto-updates

We are now going to change the way we look at a three dimensional view of the Equator and move from the surface view to the view from the surface down. This El Nino appears to be fading slowly from west to east. The real decline will be from east to west.

One should keep in mind that for a new Kelvin Wave, the period of time from initiation to the termination of impacts is about six months. So when you have four or five in a row, the pattern of impacts on different indices and geographic areas becomes quite complex. It is further complicated as you can see above because the Kelvin Waves do not necessarily originate at the same location i.e. longitude. Looking at many factors I have come to a conclusion that his El Nino may have the greatest impact on CONUS during Jan - Feb - Mar and probably also Apr of 2016 rather than in Dec 2015 and Jan - Feb of 2016. The major impacts have started a bit later and most likely will last a bit longer. But the pattern in January and the first half of February and the forecast for the remainder of February makes me wonder how this will play out.

Current Sub-Surface Conditions

Subsurface Heat Anomalies

Top Graphic (Anomalies)

The above graphic showing the current situation has an upper and lower graphic.  The bottom graphic shows the absolute values, the upper graphic shows anomalies compared to what one might expect at this time of the year in the various areas both 130E to 90W Longitude and from the surface down to 450 meters.

The top graphic is still the most useful of the two and shows where 2C (anomaly) water is impacting the area in which the ONI is measured i.e. 170W to 120W. The 2C anomaly no longer extends to 180W but only to 170W which is an indication that the El Nino is losing ground.The 3C anomaly still extends to 160W but now exists only over to 130W. So I am viewing the 3C anomaly as encompassing only about 40% of the Nino 3.4 Measurement Area for the ONI along the Equator but even there not the full area from a latitude perspective which extends five degrees latitude to the north and south of the Equator. It explains why NOAA is coming up with lower ONI estimates. The 4C anomaly is not not even close to intersecting the surface. The 6C anomaly is now almost completely gone and some with more current data are reporting that it is gone.  One sees a small 0C anomaly at depth at about 100W. Water temperatures off the Coast of South America near the Equator are returning to normal.

Bottom Graphic (Absolute Values which highlights the Thermocline)

The bottom half of the graphic may soon become more useful in terms of tracking the progress of this Warm Event as it converts to ENSO Neutral and then La Nina. It shows the thermocline between warm and cool water which pretty much looks like this as shown here during a Warm Event. You can see that the cooler water is not yet fully making it to the surface to the east along the coast of Ecuador. In fact, the 25C Isotherm no longer reaches the surface but the 26C isotherm now reaches the surface. We now will pay more attention to the 28C Isotherm as west of that temperature is where convection is more easy to occur. The 28C Isotherm has pretty much remained in the same place for months now but now appears to be migrating west consistent with this El Nino fading.

Here are the above graphics as a time sequence animation. You may have to click on them to get the animation going.

Equatorial Temperature Simulation

Isotherm Simulation

TAO/TRITON GRAPHIC

Let us compare the situation as reported on October 4 to the most recent graphic. Remember each graphic has two parts the top part is the average values, the bottom part is those values expressed as an anomaly compared to the expected values for that date. Generally I am mainly discussing the bottom of the pairs of graphics namely the anomalies

First the October 4 version which I am providing for purposes of comparison. I "flash froze" the daily value that day so that it would not auto-update.

Oct 4, 2015 TAO/TRITON

And then the December 14 version which I also "flash froze" to stop it from updating.

December 14, 2015 Frozen TAO/TRITON GRAPHIC

And then the current version of the TAO/TRITON Graphic.

It is quite a bit less intense than on December 14. The 3.5C anomaly is no longer visible. Neither is the 3.0C anomaly. So basically the maximum anomalies (which did not appear everywhere) have declined by a full degree Centigrade. This means that if one is attempting to mentally estimate the daily ONI, an approach would be to make an initial estimate of the midpoint of the 2.5C to 2.999999C or 2.75C and subtract the reductions from there where the anomaly is less. That is not exactly the approach I use in my calculation below but it does provide a quick way to get a feel for the current strength of this El Nino. There is actually shading in the TAO/TRITON Graphic that might allow one to try to refine estimates a bit more than the contour lines but I rely on the contour lines. The Easterlies are now above normal all the way over to about 150W.

Current SST and wind anomalies

And an earlier but recent reference point re the bottom half of the TAO/TRITON Graphic.

January 19, 2016 Frozen TAU/TRITON Graphic

Location Bar for Nino 3.4 Area Above and Below
---------------------------------------------  A      B      C      D      E      ------------------

 

The below table tracks the changes. It only addresses the situation right on the Equator so visually the TAO/TRITON graphic contains more information. But the below table turns visual information into quantitative information so it may be useful. The degrees of coverage shown in the rightmost two columns shows that the extent of the warm water directly on the Equator has been reduced in the past few weeks. The way I constructed the table, the 2.0 anomaly as an example includes water warmer than 2.0C so the 2.5C anomaly is included within it which you can tell by the way I recorded the westward and eastward coordinates. I could have constructed this table in a different way. Note the 3C anomaly no longer exists.

Comparing Now to January 19, 2016
Subareas of the Warm Anomaly Westward Extension Eastward Extension Degrees of Coverage
Today January 19, 2016 Today January 19, 2026 Today January 19, 2016
3C Anomaly Gone 158W Gone 134W 0 24
2.5C Anomaly 170W 165W 132W 110W 38 55
2.0C Anomaly 175W 170W 115W 100W 60 70

 

I calculate the ONI each week using a method that I have devised. To refine my calculation, I have divided the 170W to 120W ONI measuring area into five subregions (which I have designated from west to east as A through E) with a location bar shown under the TAO/TRITON Graphic). I use a rough estimation approach to integrate what I see below and record that in the table I have constructed. Then I take the average of the anomalies I estimated for each of the five subregions. So as of Monday February 15 in the afternoon working from the February 14 TAO/TRITON report, this is what I calculated.

Calculation of ONI from TAO/TRITON Graphic
Anomaly Segment Estimated Anomaly
  Last Week This Week
A. 170W to 160W 2.3 2.4
B. 160W to 150W 2.6 2.7
C. 150W to 140W 2.7 2.6
D. 140W to 130W 2.4 2.4
E. 130W to 120W 2.1 2.1
Total 12.1 12.2
Total divided by five subregions i.e. the ONI 12.1/5 =2.4 12.2/5 = 2.4

 

My estimate of the daily Nino 3.4 ONI after rounding is again 2.4. NOAA has today again reported the weekly ONI as being 2.5. Nino 4.0 is again being reported as being 1.5 probably related to Kelvin Wave #5. Nino 3.0 is being reported as lightly lower at 2.0. Last week there was a really big drop. I believe that Nino 3.0 peaked at 3.7 during the El Nino of 1997/1998. This is one of many reasons for thinking that this El Nino is shifted to the west to some extent and is clearly significantly weaker than the 1997/1998 Super El Nino if you believe that the Nino 3.0 area is important and the Asian Meteorological Services do. The action which I think is most important to track right now is in Nino 1+2 which is now reported as being dramatically lower at 0.7..

This is summarized in the following NOAA Table. I am only showing the currently issued version as the prior values are shown in the small graphics on the right with this graphic. Notice that other than NINO 4.0 (which has been propped up by Kelvin Wave #5), the other indices are trending lower and in the far end of the Tropical Pacific this decline rate has increased.

February 15, 2016 Nino Readings

The full history of the ONI readings can be found here.   The MEI index readings can be found here.

Is this El Nino a Modoki?

It did not evolve as a Modoki unless you consider it to be a continuation of the Faux El Nino Modoki of 2014/2015 which is a possible interpretation. But the Walker Circulation appears to be much like that of a Modoki. These graphics help explain this.

Although I discussed the Kelvin Waves earlier, now seems to be the best place to show the evolution of the subsurface temperatures.

February 15, 2016 Kelvin Wave History

Watching an El Nino evolve is like watching paint dry. The undercutting cool anomaly which had withdrawn to the west quite a bit is again expanding to the east but just a bit but the cold pool seems to have further intensified. The subsurface warm water reservoir in the Eastern Pacific has not shown much sign of dissipating probably due to Kelvin Wave #5 but at 90W you can see even more signs of the colder water attempting to reach the surface. The grand switch appears to be setting up to happen with the cool anomaly reversing positions with the warm anomaly.

SST Surface Anomaly Hovmoeller

Here is another way of looking at it: Unlike the Upper Ocean Heat Anomaly Hovmoeller (I call it the Kelvin Wave Hovmoeller) which takes an average down to 300 meters, this just measures the surface temperature anomaly. It is the surface that interacts with the atmosphere. A major advantage of the Hovmoeller method of displaying information is that it shows the history so I do not need to show a sequence of snap shots of the conditions at different points in time. Nevertheless this Hovmoeller provides a good way to visually see the evolution of this El Nino and later track its demise. One can easily see the historical evolution of this El Nino and the "hot spots" that existed in December and which resulted in the very high ONI readings. But one can also see the western edge of the warm anomaly starting to shift to the East. You can see at the very bottom of this graphic, which shows the most recent readings, the easing of the extreme temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 Measurement area (see the scale on the right: red is less warm than dark red) namely 170W to 120W. That explains the slight reduction in NOAA ONI estimate. That is likely to continue to be the trend. You also see the decay in the anomalies from the east between 80W and 110W and even over to almost 140W but they are difficult to see with the resolution of this graphic.You can clearly see the peak anomalies occurred in December.

SST Anomalies Hovmoeller

Recent Impacts of Weather Mostly El Nino but possibly Also PDO and AMO Impacts.

Below are snapshots of 30 Day temperature and precipitation departures over the life of this El Nino. The end date of the 30 day period is shown in the graphic.  It is a way of seeing how the impacts of this El Nino have unfolded.

June 15, 2015 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures.

July 13, 2015 30 Day Temperature and Preciptiation Departures

August 10 2015 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

Sept 5, 2015 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

Oct 3, 2015 30 day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

30 day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

November 30, 2015 30 day temperature and precipitation departures.

January 4, 2016 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

February 1, 2016 30 Day Temperature and Weather Departures.

February  8, 2016 30 Day Temperature and Precipitation Departures

February 15, 2016 30 Day Temperature and Precipitatiion Departures

Remember this is a 30 day average and only seven days were added and seven days were removed. The La Nina pattern persists for the West with respect to both precipitation and temperature. The East is a bit like an El Nino.

I realize this is a lot of graphics but one needs to look at the history of an event to assess it. As you can see, so far we are not having the expected El Nino Impacts in CONUS.

El Nino in the News

Some think this El Nino resembles the 82/83 El Nino and after the end of that El Nino there was a major flooding event in Arizona in the Fall.

View from Australia

El Nino

Australia POAMA ENSO model run

Here is the discussion just released:

El Niño slowly weakening

Issued on 16 February 2016

The 2015–16 El Niño continues its gradual decline. Sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean are cooling, and beneath the surface, cooler-than-average waters are advancing into the eastern Pacific. The atmosphere is also showing some signs of a declining El Niño. Trade winds are now the strongest they have been in nearly two years, though may weaken again briefly in the coming fortnight.

Based on the 26 El Niño events since 1900, around 50% have been followed by a neutral year, and 40% have been followed by La Niña. International climate models suggest neutral is most likely for the second half of the year. However, La Niña in 2016 cannot be ruled out, and a repeat El Niño appears unlikely. Historically, the breakdown of strong El Niño events often brings above average rainfall to some—but not all—parts of Australia in the first half of the year.

The Indian Ocean Dipole has little influence on Australian climate between December and April. However, Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures remain very warm across the majority of the basin which may provide extra moisture for rain systems across Australia. The southern hemisphere Indian Ocean remains at record warm levels, with January 2016 adding to the string of record warm months observed since mid-2015.

Next update expected on 1 March 2016

IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole)

IOD POAMA Model Run

The graphic comes with only a very short discussion and here is that discussion:

The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is neutral. The Dipole Mode Index value to 14 February was −0.18 °C.

The IOD does not typically influence Australian climate during the months December to May. When the monsoon trough is in the southern hemisphere (as it typically is between the months of December to May) neither positive nor negative IOD events are able to form.

More generally, sea surface temperatures (SSTs) remain significantly warmer than average across most of the Indian Ocean basin, with a large part of the Indian Ocean measuring warmest on record for this time of year. This unusually warm ocean is likely to increase the available moisture for weather systems travelling across Australian in the coming weeks and months, increasing the likelihood of good falls occurring across southern Australia.

Putting it all Together.

The subsurface reservoir of warm water in the Eastern Pacific has reached its maximum and is now beginning to discharge. This would have occurred earlier if not for Kelvin Waves #4 and now #5. This El Nino has peaked in intensity and is now in rapid decline. We are beginning to speculate on the winter of 2016/2017 which now according to the models seems increasingly likely to be a La Nina.

The below is the CPC/IRI forecast issued on January 21, 2016 followed by the forecast issued on February 11, 2016. It is important to remember that the first report in each month is based on a survey of meteorologists and the second report later in the month is based on the analysis of the forecast models. It is a minor difference but a difference.

Jan 21, 2016 CPC/IRI ENSO Forecast.

New Forecast

February 15, 2016  CPC-IRI ENSO Consensus Forecast

You can see the slower decline of the El Nino which has been obvious to us for a long time. Also the slightly reduced confidence that next winter will be a La Nina winter. The two go together.

Two weeks ago we suggested that it is possible the models will be wrong about how fast the Eastern Pacific Warm Pool moves back towards its La Nina location and it may well be that next winter will be more of a Neutral year or even have some characteristics of an El Nino Modoki and thus be wetter than a typical year as the Warm Pool may still be more in the Central Pacific than shifted all the way west to its La Nina position. This new update from CPC/IRI suggests that his concept is not entering into their thinking. But the early and late month forecasts are based on different methodologies (forecasters early in the month and computer model results later in the month) so small differences may not be significant. This however is a big difference from what was presented two weeks ago

We have reason to believe that the models may not be taking into account all factors such as the Equatorial ocean currents and that this El Nino may not transition to a La Nina as rapidly as the models are predicting.

Forecasting Beyond Five Years.

So in terms of long-term forecasting, none of this is very difficult to figure out actually if you are looking at say a five-year or longer forecast. The research on Ocean Cycles is fairly conclusive and widely available to those who seek it out. I have provided a lot of information on this in prior weeks and all of that information is preserved in Part II of my report in the Section on Low Frequency Cycles 3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS.  It includes decade by decade predictions through 2050. Predicting a particular year is far harder.

TABLE OF CONTENTS FOR PART II OF THIS REPORT  The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page II where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you. 

A. Worldwide Weather: Current and Three-Month Outlooks: 15 Month Outlooks  (Usefully bookmarked as it provides automatically updated current weather conditions and forecasts at all times. It does not replace local forecasts but does provide U.S. national and regional forecasts and, with less detail, international forecasts)

B. Factors Impacting the Outlook

1. Very High Frequency (short-term) Cycles PNA, AO,NAO (but the AO and NAO may also have a low frequency component.)

2. Medium Frequency Cycles such as ENSO and IOD

3. Low Frequency Cycles such as PDO, AMO, IOBD, EATS.

C. Computer Models and Methodologies

D. Reserved for a Future Topic  (Possibly Predictable Economic Impacts)

TABLE OF CONTENTS FOR PART III OF THIS REPORT - GLOBAL WARMING WHICH SOME CALL CLIMATE CHANGE. The links below may take you directly to the set of information that you have selected but in some Internet Browsers it may first take you to the top of Page III where there is a TABLE OF CONTENTS and take a few extra seconds to get you to the specific section selected. If you do not feel like waiting, you can click a second time within the TABLE OF CONTENTS to get to the specific part of the webpage that interests you.

D1. Introduction

D2. Climate Impacts of Global Warming

D3. Economic Impacts of Global Warming

D4. Reports from Around the World on Impacts of Global Warming

Click here for a list of Sig Silber's Weather Posts

>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted.  As the internet is a "war zone" of trolls, hackers and spammers - Econintersect must balance its defences against ease of commenting.  We have joined with Livefyre to manage our comment streams.

To comment, using Livefyre just click the "Sign In" button at the top-left corner of the comment box below. You can create a commenting account using your favorite social network such as Twitter, Facebook, Google+, LinkedIn or Open ID - or open a Livefyre account using your email address.



You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.





Econintersect Weather


search_box

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.


Take a look at what is going on inside of Econintersect.com
Main Home
Analysis Blog
Are You Feeling the Economic Surge?
Big Mess in Italy
News Blog
Earnings And Economic Reports: Week Starting 05 December 2016
Early Headlines: Green Pty Cancels - Then Appeals PA Recount, IRS Serves Summons On Bitcoin Co, Most Mfg Jobs Lost To Automation, 2017 US Hosing Outlook And More
The Smartphone Market Is Not A Two-Horse Race
Italy's Referendum: What's At Stake And What You Need To Know
There Were Over A Million Casualties At The Somme
The Best Countries In The World
What We Read Today 03 December 2016 - Public Edition
Big Mac Index In Its 30th Year
What We Read Today 03 December 2016
Scientists Find Giant Underground Ice Reserve On Mars
Sustained 3 To 4% GDP Growth Is A Huge Stretch
New Earthquake Risk Model Confirms Possibility Of Statewide Earthquake In California
Subprime Auto Debt Grows Despite Rising Delinquencies
Investing Blog
How To Invest When The Fed Destroys Capitalism
Technical Thoughts: Manage Risk
Opinion Blog
Why Did Trump Win? A Different Perspective, Part 3
Jobs Without Disruptions Through Concordian Economics
Precious Metals Blog
Silver Prices Rebounded Today: Where They Are Headed
Live Markets
02Dec2016 Market Close: WTI Crude Climbed Back Up To Previous 51 Handle, US Dollar Index Trading At The100 Level, Oil Rig Count At 10-Month High
Amazon Books & More






.... and keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government



Crowdfunding ....






























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2016 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved