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posted on 30 July 2018

July 2018 Texas Manufacturing Survey Improves

Of the five Federal Reserve districts which have released their July manufacturing surveys - all were in expansion. A complete summary follows.

Analyst Opinion of Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

This survey remains in positive territory with new orders improving and unfilled orders significantly improving - and both in positive territory. Even though this survey declined, our opinion is that this was a stronger report than last month.

The expectations from Nasdaq / Econoday was 29.0 to 38.5 (consensus 32.0), and the reported value was 29.4. From the Dallas Fed:

The robust expansion in Texas factory activity continued in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose six points to 29.4, signaling an acceleration in output growth.

Other indexes of manufacturing activity also indicated continued solid expansion in July. The survey's demand measures—the new orders and growth rate of orders indexes—moved down but remained well above average at 23.3 and 17.0, respectively. The shipments index climbed five points to 30.8, and the capacity utilization index edged up to 25.0.

Perceptions of broader business conditions were a bit less positive this month versus June, and uncertainty increased. The general business activity index slipped four points to 32.3. The company outlook index dropped 13 points to 20.4, which is the second-lowest reading this year but still elevated relative to the average. A new question introduced to the survey in January 2018 asks, "How has uncertainty regarding your company's outlook changed in the current month vs. prior month?" In July, a quarter of firms said uncertainty increased, while only 8 percent said it decreased—bringing the outlook uncertainty index* to 17.0, well above its June reading and the highest level to date.

Business Indicators Relating to Facilities and Products in Texas
Current (versus previous month)
Indicator Jul Index Jun Index Change Indicator Direction* Trend** (Months)

Production

29.4

23.3

+6.1

Increasing

25

Capacity Utilization

25.0

21.7

+3.3

Increasing

25

New Orders

23.3

29.6

-6.3

Increasing

21

Growth Rate of Orders

17.0

22.2

-5.2

Increasing

19

Unfilled Orders

14.9

13.0

+1.9

Increasing

16

Shipments

30.8

25.5

+5.3

Increasing

20

Delivery Time

12.7

15.9

-3.2

Increasing

13

Finished Goods Inventories

-1.9

5.8

-7.7

Decreasing

1

Prices Paid for Raw Materials

48.6

53.6

-5.0

Increasing

29

Prices Received for Finished Goods

22.9

26.2

-3.3

Increasing

24

Wages and Benefits

32.4

31.4

+1.0

Increasing

108

Employment

28.9

23.9

+5.0

Increasing

19

Hours Worked

22.2

20.2

+2.0

Increasing

21

Capital Expenditures

26.6

23.8

+2.8

Increasing

23

Source: Dallas Fed

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Dallas Fed survey (light blue bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.



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