econintersect .com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 12 February 2018

January 2018 Consumer Expectations: Continued Optimism about Household Finances, Credit Access and Earnings Growth

from the New York Fed

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York's Center for Microeconomic Data today released the January 2018 Survey of Consumer Expectations, which shows continued improvement in expectations about households' year-ahead financial situation and credit availability, and robust expected earnings growth. Short- and medium-term inflation expectations fell slightly.

Expectations about income and spending growth decreased, but expectations about household financial situations and credit availability improved. Labor market expectations continued to improve, with expectations about earnings growth and unemployment reaching levels not seen since late 2014.

z sce.png

The main findings from the January 2018 Survey are:

Inflation

  • Median inflation expectations declined by 0.1% at both the one-year and three-year horizon, to 2.7% and 2.8% in January respectively. The decline was driven by lower income (below $50,000) respondents.
  • Median inflation uncertainty—or the uncertainty expressed by respondents regarding future inflation outcomes—declined at both horizons.
  • Median home price change expectations increased from 3.2% in December to 3.5% in January, its highest reading since May 2017 and well above its trailing 12-month average of 3.2%.
  • The median one-year ahead expected gasoline price change increased from 4.1% in December to 4.3% in January, while expectations for changes in food prices declined from 4.6% to 4.3%. Expectations for changes in the cost of medical care decreased from 9.5% to 9.2%.


Labor Market

  • Median one-year ahead earnings growth expectations increased slightly, reaching a new series' high. Median earnings growth uncertainty increased to a level last seen in August 2016.
  • Mean unemployment expectations—or the mean probability that the U.S. unemployment rate will be higher one year from now—decreased slightly from 33.5% in December to 32.4% in January, a new series' low.
  • Both the mean perceived probability of losing one's job in the next 12 months and the mean probability of leaving one's job voluntarily in the next 12 months increased from 13.8% to 14.9%, and 21.7% to 22.1%, respectively.
  • The mean perceived probability of finding a job (if one's current job was lost) declined slightly from 60.0% in December to 59.7%, falling just 0.4% below its series' high reached in November 2017.
  • The mean probability of changing residence over the next 12 months, which has been falling gradually since reaching 21.4% in November 2013, declined to a new low of 15.9% in January.

Household Finance

  • Median expected household income growth remained unchanged at 2.8% in January, 0.1% above its trailing 12-month average.
  • Median household spending growth expectations remained unchanged at 2.9% in January, just 0.1% below its trailing 12-month average.
  • Expectations for year-ahead credit availability improved in January, with the proportion expecting easing in credit access reaching a new series' high of 24.7%. Perceptions of credit access compared to a year ago also improved with 27.3% of respondents reporting easier credit access compared to a year ago, also a new series' high.
  • The average perceived probability of missing a minimum debt payment over the next three months decreased slightly from 12.5 % in December to 12.3% in January.
  • The median expectation regarding year-ahead change in taxes (at current income level) declined sharply from 2.2% in December to 1.6% in January, a new series low. A quarter of respondents expect a tax decrease larger than 2.6%. The decline was broad-based, but largest for higher income (over $100,000) respondents.
  • The mean perceived probability that the average interest rate on saving accounts will be higher 12 months from now than it is today increased slightly from 34.5% in December to 34.9% in January.
  • Perceptions of the household's financial situation compared to a year ago, as well as one-year-ahead expectations of the household's financial situation both improved and reached new series' highs, with 38.7% of respondents feeling they are better off and 45.7% expecting to be better off financially, compared to 37.0% and 43.2% in December respectively.
  • The mean perceived probability that U.S. stock prices will be higher 12 months from now than they are today increased slightly from 44.3% in December to 44.9% in January.
  • Median year-ahead expected growth in government debt saw its second consecutive decrease from 7.8% in November to 7.2% in December and to 5.9% in January.

Source

https://www.newyorkfed.org/newsevents/news/research/2018/an180212


>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<




Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.






Econintersect Economic Releases








search_box
Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.







Keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government




























 navigate econintersect .com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2018 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved