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posted on 31 January 2018

January 2018 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer: Employment Up to Near-6-Year High; Prices Paid Highest Since September

The Chicago Business Barometer declined but remains firmly in positive territory.

Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI

The results of this survey continue to correlate to district Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys - and generallly aligns with the overall trend of the ISM manufacturing survey.

Expections this month from Bloomberg / Econoday were 60.0 to 68.0 (consensus 64.0) with the actual at 65.7. A number below 50 indicates contraction. Jamie Satchi, economist at MNI Indicators stated,

Official data in Q1 tends to come in weaker than in reality, but our survey suggests that despite softening a little, sentiment among businesses remains robust. This was the best January result in seven years, capped off by the Employment indicator rising to its highest level in almost 6 years. Still, inflationary pressures remain elevated and show no signs of abating, something that should be at the forefront of the Fed's mind.

From ISM Chicago:

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer fell 2.1 points to 65.7 in January from a previously revised 67.8 in December. Despite losing some ground in January, the Barometer continued in the same vein of form it displayed in the second half of 2017, making for an encouraging start to the New Year. The Barometer was up 28.3% on last January and at 65.7, stands above the H2 2017 average of 63.7. Three of the five components that comprise the Barometer fell on the month, with only Employment and Supplier Deliveries notching up gains in January. Firms reported a moderately slower pace of both incoming orders and output in January. The New Orders indicator fell to a five-month low, contributing most to the Barometer's decline, while the Production indicator also fell in January, albeit to a lesser extent. With less activity on these fronts it gave firms the chance to target their backlog of unfilled orders. The Order Backlogs indicator fell to its lowest level since May.

z chicago pmi.png

The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) - there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.

source and read the full report: Chicago PMI

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