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posted on 25 January 2018

January 2018 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Remains Positive

Of the four regional manufacturing surveys released for January, all were in expansion.

Analyst Opinion of Kansas City Fed Manufacturing

Kansas City Fed manufacturing has been one of the more stable districts and their index improved. Key internals were strong.

The market expectations from Bloomberg / Econoday were 11 to 16 (consensus 14). The reported value was 16. Any value below zero is contraction.

z kansas_man.PNG

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the January Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity strengthened further, and expectations for future activity increased. "We saw faster growth this month despite some firms noting negative effects from extremely cold weather, and several price indexes rose considerably," said Wilkerson. The January survey incorporates new seasonal adjustment factors, so historical indexes differ slightly from previously-released numbers. The new seasonal factors will be used throughout 2018. Results from past surveys and release dates for future surveys can be found at www.kansascityfed.org/research/indicatorsdata/mfg.

Growth in Tenth District manufacturing activity strengthened further in January, and firms' expectations for future activity increased. Most price indexes rose moderately from the previous month, with some indexes reaching five to ten year highs. The month-over-month composite index was 16 in January, higher than 13 in December and 15 in November (Tables 1 & 2, Chart 1). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Growth in factory activity improved at both durable and non-durable goods plants, particularly for machinery, aircraft, chemicals, and plastics. Most month-over-month indexes also increased. The shipments, new orders, and order backlog indexes all rose moderately. The employment index inched higher from 16 to 18, while the production index was unchanged. The raw materials inventory index climbed from 7 to 15, and the finished goods inventory index moved into positive territory.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Fed survey (light green bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

Steven Hansen



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