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posted on 05 January 2018

29 December 2017: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Rate Unchanged

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in expansion. ECRI released their inflation index this week and is shown below.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

This index is indicating modest growth six months from today - but the rate of growth would be little changed from what we see today.

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticked up to 147.4 from 147.3, while WLI growth was nearly unchanged at 3.5%.



For more on the cyclical outlook, please see the reports below that also mention other forward-looking ECRI data that we've shared publicly:

- read ECRI's "Food Fight: Food Prices Weigh on Inflation as FIG Keeps Score"

- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Tell-Tale Spreads Confirm Slowdown Ahead"

For a closer look at the WLI's performance, please see the chart below:



We believe that economic growth and inflation are inherently cyclical. Click here to review our track record, including ECRI client report excerpts.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The November index value (issued in December) shows the rate of economic growth was little changed.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November economy's rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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