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posted on 29 December 2017

December 2017 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer At Six-and-a-Half Year High

The Chicago Business Barometer improved and remains in positive territory.

Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI

The results of this survey continue to correlate to district Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys - and generallly aligns with the overall trend of the ISM manufacturing survey.

There was no expections this month from Bloomberg / Econoday with the actual at 67.5. A number below 50 indicates contraction. Jamie Satchi, economist at MNI Indicators stated,

Sentiment among businesses started 2017 in good shape and only impressed more as the year progressed. December's result secured the MNI Chicago Business Barometer's first full year of expansion since 2014 and with New Orders ending the quarter in fine shape there is every chance this form could be carried over into 2018.

From ISM Chicago:

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose to 67.6 in December, up from 63.9 in November, closing the year at the highest level since March 2011.

On a calendar quarter basis, the Barometer rose to 65.9 in Q4 from 61.0 in Q3, the best quarterly performance since Q1 2011, only the second time in the last decade there have been three consecutive above-60 readings in the Oct-Dec period.

Both output and demand showed strong gains in December, with each rising to multi-year highs. The Production indicator rose to a level last seen higher 34 years ago, while the New Orders Indicator hit a three-and-a-half year high. As for the other three indicators that comprise the Barometer, Order Backlogs also grew, but Employment and Supplier Deliveries fell on the month.

Firms' unfulfilled orders edged slightly higher in December, but remained below the levels recorded in October, when businesses grappled with the worst of the recent, challenging weather conditions. Also reflecting the better logistical environment, supplier delivery times shortened in December. The associated indicator fell to the lowest level since April but remained comfortably above the 50-neutral mark.

z chicago pmi.png

The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) - there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.

source and read the full report: Chicago PMI

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