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posted on 22 December 2017

15 December 2017: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Rate Marginally Slows

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in expansion. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ECRI also released their coincident and lagging indices this week.

Sorry for the delay in publishing this post - but the internet sucks on Princess Cruises (as they use most of the bandwidth for their internal use). Specifically I would like to thank Brian OConnor, Vice President, Public Relations for Princess Cruises who refused my request for assistance.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating modest growth six months from today.

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Slips

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) slipped to 146.5 from 147.5 and WLI growth was unchanged at 3.4%.

For more on the cyclical outlook, please see insights below that includes other forward-looking ECRI data that we've made public:

- read ECRI's Op-Ed "Tell-Tale Spreads Confirm Slowdown Ahead"

- watch ECRI's Lakshman Achuthan on Reuters "Trading at Noon"

- read ECRI's "The Most Widely-Ignored Shift in U.S. Economy"

For a closer look at the WLI's performance, please see the chart below:

Click here to review ECRI's track record, including member report excerpts.

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing different trends.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The November index value (issued in December) shows the rate of economic growth was little changed.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The November economy's rate of growth (released in December) showed the rate of growth improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI

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