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posted on 30 November 2017

November 2017 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer Eases. Supplier Lead Times Hit 13-Year High

The Chicago Business Barometer declined marginally but remains in positive territory.

Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI

The results of this survey continue to correlate to district Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys - and generallly aligns with the overall trend of the ISM manufacturing survey.

From Bloomberg / Econoday, the market expected the index between 61.0 to 66.5 (consensus 64.0) versus the actual at 63.9. A number below 50 indicates contraction. Jamie Satchi, economist at MNI Indicators stated,

"Despite November's fall, the MNI Chicago Business Barometer remains on track to deliver the first full year of expansion in three years. Firms seem to have navigated through the worst of the bad weather conditions in recent months, though supplier deliveries rising to a thirteen-year high and persistent, high input costs suggests the effects are yet to fully dissipate away.

From ISM Chicago:

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer eased to 63.9 in November, down from 66.2 in October, to stand at the lowest level in three months.

Despite receding from October's six-and-a-half year high, optimism among businesses recorded the fourth highest outturn this year. The Barometer has expanded for 21 straight months and is poised to see out 2017 in solid fashion.

Output expanded at a robust rate in November, as businesses continued to benefit from healthy domestic conditions and an abating of the disruption brought about by the recent adverse weather. New Orders, although retreating from October's fourmonth high, remained in good health. Of the Barometer's other three sub-components, Order Backlogs was the only other to also lose ground during the month.

Backlogs have generally trended upwards for much of 2017, culminating in a 43-year high last month. Though partially driven by healthy demand, the gains notched in more recent months were also explained by a carryover of orders after the recent storms. As the associated disruption continued to wind down, coupled with softer new orders, backlogs eased to a three-month low.

z chicago pmi.png

The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) - there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.

source and read the full report: Chicago PMI

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