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posted on 17 November 2017

10 November 2017: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Rate Down

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward is remains in expansion. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating modest growth six months from today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Down

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticked down to 145.6 from 145.7, as WLI growth slipped from 3.3% to 2.7%.



For more on the cyclical outlook, please see links below to insights from our other forward-looking data that we've made public:

- read ECRI's "China Data Disappoints, As Expected"

- read ECRI's "Inflation Cycle Locked Into Downturn"

- read ECRI's "Why So Many (in the West) Are Pissed Off"

For a closer look at the performance of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing slightly different trends.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The September index value (issued in October) shows the rate of economic growth was unchanged.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The September economy's rate of growth (released in October) showed the rate of growth slowed.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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