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posted on 26 October 2017

October 2017 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Remains Positive And Improves

Of the four regional manufacturing surveys released for October, all were in expansion.

Analyst Opinion of Kansas City Fed Manufacturing

Kansas City Fed manufacturing has been one of the more stable districts and their index improved. Key internals were in expansion.

There were no market expectations from Bloomberg / Econoday. The reported value was -23. Any value below zero is contraction.

z kansas_man.PNG

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the October Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity posted strong growth and expectations about future activity improved further. "Factory activity accelerated further in our region this month, posting its highest composite reading since 2011," said Wilkerson. TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING SUMMARY

Tenth District manufacturing activity posted strong growth, and expectations for future activity improved further. Raw materials price indexes increased modestly, while indexes for selling prices were mixed. The month-over-month composite index was 23 in October, the highest since March 2011, up from 17 in September and 16 in August (Tables 1 & 2, Chart 1). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Factory activity increased strongly at both durable and non-durable goods plants, particularly for food, plastics, computer and electronic products. Month-overmonth indexes were mostly higher. The new orders index increased moderately, and the order backlog index increased to its highest reading since March 2011. The employment and new orders for exports indexes increased slightly. However, the shipments index was unchanged, and the production index eased somewhat but remained high. The finished goods inventory index jumped back into positive territory, and the raw materials inventory index also increased moderately.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Fed survey (light green bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

Steven Hansen



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