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posted on 06 October 2017

29 September 2017: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Rate Back Into Expansion

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward is now back into expansion after last week's dip into contraction. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ECRI also released their inflation index today.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicatingr modest growth six months from today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Increases

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) latest reading increased to 144.4 from 143.7 as WLI growth ticked up to 0.7 from -0.1%.



To put the economy in perspective please see link below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's CNBC interview.

For a closer look at the performance of the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing slightly different trends.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The August index value (issued in September) shows the rate of economic growth declined.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

U.S. FIG Ticks Up

U.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in September, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 111.8 from 111.7 in August, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The August economy's rate of growth (released in September) showed the rate of growth improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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