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posted on 29 September 2017

September 2017 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer Well Above Expectations

The Chicago Business Barometer rose to the second highest level in more than three years. This survey came in above expectations.

Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI

The results of this survey continue to agree with district Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys - and aligns with the overall trend of the ISM manufacturing survey.

From Bloomberg / Econoday, the market expected the index between 55.0 to 60.0 (consensus 58.6) versus the actual at 65.2. A number below 50 indicates contraction. Jamie Satchi, economist at MNI Indicators stated,

"The strong outturn in September means that on a quarterly basis business activity was broadly unchanged from an already impressive Q2. Looking forward, firms are on record expecting a busy Q4 despite disruptions caused by the recent storms, with just a handful expecting delivery times to lengthen between October through December,

From ISM Chicago:

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer rose to 65.2 in September, up from 58.9 in August, hitting the highest level in three months and the second highest level in more than three years.

Optimism among firms about business conditions was bolstered in September after August's flat showing, with each of the Barometer's sub-components strengthening. A marked rise in Order Backlogs, up to a 29-year high, was among the month's highlights. September's survey result left the Q3 calendar average of the Barometer at 61.0, virtually unchanged from Q2's three-year high of 61.1.

The sharp rise in sentiment was the result of widespread gains, though particularly concentrated in demand, backlogs and employment. Together, these account for 60% of the headline Barometer. The increases in Production and Supplier Deliveries, accounting for the remaining 40%, were slightly more modest in comparison.

Four of the five Barometer components rose to levels just shy of the highs set in June, with only Order Backlogs surpassing it, hitting a level not seen since July 1988. Output and New Orders rose for the second consecutive month in September while the recent barrage of storms was reported to have weighed on delivery times. The adverse weather conditions also led some companies to stockpile goods as a precautionary measure. The Inventories indicator rose by 8.4 points to the highest level since March.

z chicago pmi.png

The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) - there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.

source and read the full report: Chicago PMI



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