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posted on 26 September 2017

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Improves In September 2017.

Of the four regional Federal Reserve surveys released to date, all are in expansion.

Analyst Opinion of Richmond Manufacturing

The Richmond Fed subcategories were positive, The data seems similar to last month.

Market expectations from Bloomberg / Econoday was 6 to 14 (consensus 13). The actual survey value was 19 [note that values above zero represent expansion].

Reports on Fifth District manufacturing activity improved in September, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.

The composite manufacturing index rose from 14 to 19, supported by a sizable increase in the index for shipments — which, at a reading of 22, is the highest it has been since December 2010 — and a smaller rise in the index for new orders. The third component of the composite index, the employment index, fell slightly. Although the wages index also declined very slightly, there was a notable increase in the average workweek indicator.

Manufacturing expectations were stable across most measures this month, and continued to indicate overall optimism. The only notable changes in expectations were in the index for expected average workweek, which rose from 16 to 25, and the index for expected capital expenditures, which fell from 30 to 18.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.



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