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posted on 25 August 2017

18 August 2017: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Rate Again Marginally Declines

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for over one year. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. Both indices are showing growth but the intensity is different.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Edges Down

Body: ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index fell to 144.1 from 144.5. The WLI growth rate decreases to a 72-week low of 2.3%, from 2.5% the previous week.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- read ECRI's "Flashback: Declining Productivity in Construction".

- watch Anirvan Banerji's interview on Reuters.

- read ECRI's "Phillips Curveball".

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing slightly different trends.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The July index value (issued in August) shows the rate of economic growth insignificantly improved.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Dips

U.S. inflationary pressures were down slightly in July, as the U.S. future inflation gauge fell to 111.5 from 111.7 in June, according to data released
Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG dipped in July, further distancing itself from last fall's cyclical peak," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release.
"Thus, underlying inflation pressures are clearly easing."

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The July economy's rate of growth (released in August) showed the rate of growth improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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