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posted on 31 July 2017

July 2017 Texas Manufacturing Survey Improves

Of the five Federal Reserve districts which have released their July manufacturing surveys - all are in expansion. A complete summary follows.

Analyst Opinion of Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

This survey declined but remained in positive territory with both new orders and unfilled orders in positive territory.

Expectations from Bloomberg / Econoday was 12.0 to 14.1 (consensus 13.8), and the reported value was 16.8. From the Dallas Fed:

Texas factory activity increased again in July, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, rose 11 points to 22.8, indicating output grew at a faster pace than in June.

Other measures of current manufacturing activity also indicated a pickup in growth. The new orders and the growth rate of orders indexes rose several points each, coming in at 16.1 and 12.2, respectively. The capacity utilization index moved up to 18.1 and the shipments index increased three points to 11.6.

Perceptions of broader business conditions improved again in July, with a sharp pickup in outlooks. The general business activity index edged up to 16.8, marking a 10th consecutive positive reading. The company outlook index jumped 15 points to 25.9, reaching its highest level since 2010.

Labor market measures indicated slightly stronger employment gains and longer workweeks this month. The employment index has been positive all year and edged up to 11.2, its highest reading since the end of 2015. Twenty-one percent of firms noted net hiring, compared with 9 percent noting net layoffs. The hours worked index ticked up to 9.8.

Prices and wages continued to rise in July. The raw materials prices index held steady at 15.5, while the finished goods prices index moved up slightly to 5.6. The wages and benefits index remained somewhat elevated at 20.6.

Expectations regarding future business conditions continued to reflect optimism. The indexes of future general business activity and future company outlook held steady at 31.6 and 34.8, respectively. Other indexes of future manufacturing activity showed mixed movements but remained solidly in positive territory.

Source: Dallas Fed

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Dallas Fed survey (light blue bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.



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