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posted on 07 July 2017

30 June 2017: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Rate Slowing Continues

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for over one year - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. Also ECRI released their inflation index.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. Both indices are showing growth but the trends are in opposite directions. They are indicating conditions 6 months from today should be somewhat better than today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

Weekly Leading Index Ticks Up

ECRI's U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increases to 144.0, as its growth rate edged down from 3.0% to 2.7%



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- read ECRI's "China Trade Masks Key U.S. Gains".

- ECRI's presentation 'Turning Points: The Long and Short of It' at the 2017 Strategic Investment Conference.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. These indices are now showing slightly different trends.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The April index value (issued in May) shows the rate of economic growth improved.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure. Inflation pressures are receding

Future Inflation Gauge Edges Up in June

U.S. inflationary pressures were up slightly in June, as the U.S. future inflation gauge grew to 111.6 from 111.3 in May, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG edged up in June after having dropped noticeably in May," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures, while still simmering, have come off the boil."

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:.

z ecri_infl.PNG

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The May economy's rate of growth (released in June) showed the rate of growth improved.

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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