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posted on 27 June 2017

Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey Improves In June 2017.

Of the five regional Federal Reserve surveys released to date, all are in expansion.

Analyst Opinion of Richmond Manufacturing

The Richmond Fed subcategories were mixed, This was a better report than last month - but still not excellent.

Market expectations from Bloomberg / Econoday was 6 to 10 (consensus 8.0). The actual survey value was 7 [note that values above zero represent expansion].

Reports from Fifth District manufacturers improved in June, according to the latest survey by the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. The composite manufacturing index rose from 1 in May to 7 in June, as the indexes for shipments and new orders increased. The employment index was relatively flat. Most firms continued to report steady or higher wages; although the index for wages did fall in June, it remained above 0. Meanwhile, more firms reported a decline in the average workweek than reported an increase.

Looking six months ahead, manufacturing executives were more optimistic in June than in May, although even the May readings were very positive. Among the indexes for expected activity, only two fell: the capital expenditures index declined from 34 in May to 26 in June and the expected shipments metric inched down from 39 to 38.

Survey responses pointed toward more moderate growth in both prices paid and prices received. Expected growth in prices received also moderated, although expected growth in prices paid picked up somewhat.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Richmond Fed survey (darkest bar).

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.



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