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posted on 22 June 2017

June 2017 Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Remains Positive and Again Improves

Of the three regional manufacturing surveys released for June, all were in expansion.

Analyst Opinion of Kansas City Fed Manufacturing

Kansas City Fed manufacturing has been one of the more stable districts and their index again marginally improved. Key internals mixed. Note that last month the hard data showed contraction whilst most of the Fed district surveys showed expansion.

There were no market expectations from Bloomberg / Econoday. The reported value was 11. Any value below zero is contraction.

z kansas_man.PNG

The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City released the June Manufacturing Survey today. According to Chad Wilkerson, vice president and economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the survey revealed that Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded further with strong expectations for future activity.

"Firms reported faster growth in June than earlier in the second quarter," said Wilkerson. "The share of factories planning to add workers over the next six months also rose solidly."

TENTH DISTRICT MANUFACTURING SUMMARY

Tenth District manufacturing activity expanded further in June, and expectations for future activity remained strong. Price indexes were mixed, with some increases in raw materials prices.

The month-over-month composite index was 11 in June, up from 8 in May and 7 in April (Tables 1 & 2, Chart). The composite index is an average of the production, new orders, employment, supplier delivery time, and raw materials inventory indexes. Activity increased moderately at both durable and non-durable goods plants, particularly for aircraft, computers and electronics, chemicals, and plastics. Month-over-month indexes were mixed. The production index jumped from -1 to 23, and the shipments and employment indexes also increased. On the other hand, the new orders index eased from 9 to 4, and the order backlog index fell into negative territory. Both inventory indexes inched lower.

Most year-over-year factory indexes increased from the previous month. The composite year-over-year index rose from 18 to 28, its highest level since June 2011, and the production, shipment, and new orders indexes also increased moderately. The employment index edged higher from 18 to 24, a five-year high. In contrast, the capital expenditures index eased from 16 to 13 and the order backlog index also moved slightly lower. The raw materials inventory index climbed from 8 to 22, while the finished goods inventory index moderated.

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Kansas City Fed survey (light green bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

Steven Hansen



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