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posted on 09 May 2017

April 2017 Small Business Optimism Posted Another High Reading

from the National Federation of Independent Business

The NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism posted another historically high reading in April, but expectations for future business conditions plunged by eight points, a sign that business owners were shaken by Congress' failure at the end of March to repeal and replace Obamacare.

[editor's note: Market expectation from Bloomberg / Econoday was between 102.0 to 104.0 (consensus 103.8) versus the actual reading of 104.5.]

Said NFIB President and CEO Juanita Duggan:

Small business owners were measurably shaken when Congress failed to address one of their most important concerns. Obamacare has crushed small businesses. Small business owners expected the White House and Congress to address that problem. Their failure to do so caused volatility in the Optimism Index

Congress and the White House must understand that small business owners are paying close attention, and they are making decisions that affect the economy based on how Washington performs. The drop in expected business conditions should be a warning to Washington that health care reform, regulatory reform, and tax reform have implications far bigger than politics.

Taxes jumped to the top of the list of concerns among small business owners in the April survey, with 21 percent listing it as their single most important problem.

That should be a clear indication for Congress and the White House to finish health care reform and move quickly to tax reform. The current tax code strongly favors large corporations over small businesses. Five of the top 10 concerns among small business owners are related to taxes. The tax system is a major burden for small businesses and an impediment to economic growth. Fixing that system must be an urgent priority for Congress and the White House.

The Index dipped 0.2 points April, settling at 104.5. April was the sixth straight month for historically high optimism, a hot streak not seen since 1983. Five of the Index components posted a gain, reaching levels not seen since before the previous administration. Three of the components declined, and two were unchanged. Nearly all of the slight decline was attributable to an 8-point plunge in expected business conditions. Most of the data were collected immediately after Congress failed to repeal and replace Obamacare.

z%20nfib%20chart.png

Said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg:

Expected business conditions is the most volatile component of the Index. Small business owners want Congress and the White House to address the high cost of health care, which has been their top concern for more than 30 years. When that effort failed in March, expectations for better business conditions collapsed.

z%20nfib%20table.png

Report Commentary:

The Affordable Care Act (ACA), Obamacare, was a predictable failed experiment. Sadly, after seven years since it's passage, the ACA "details" are still being "written" by the bureaucrats. Debate in the house marked by serious doubts among republicans and severe oppopsition by democrates and too little leadship from the White House. The health care vote in the house repairs some of that dynamic but remains to be seen how small business owners will respond to these efforts in next month's survey.

The first quarter GDP number was weaker than expected, due to changes in inventory investment, slower auto sales and a negative trade gap. The economy is stronger than 0.7 percent growth, capital spending is better and inventory reductions will reverse.

The Federal Reserve may decide that even though the economy is better than "0.7", the optics of raising rates would not be good and therefore they will defer their two remaining rate hikes to later meetings. There is no chance they will do an "inter-meeting hike" as Greenspan was willing to do. The Fed will continue conduct this "monthly monetary policy" process, refusing to establish a longer term program of more predictable policy. Doing this each month produces much uncertainty in financial markets. Traders love this and much money is made in trading by the big banks rather than in traditional lending. In the meantime, hesitancy at the Fed raises uncertainty about the future of economic growth.

Small business owners have held on to their optimism, and have reported improvements in activities that signal more growth in the real economy, even if modest. If Congress does not disappoint, small firms are ready to bet on a more optimistic future by investing in their businesses and hiring more workers.

Some other highlights of this Optimism Index include:

Optimism Index Summary. The Index of Small Business Optimism fell 0.2 points to 104.5, sustaining the remarkable surge in optimism that started the day after the election. Five of the 10 Index components posted a gain, three declined, and two were unchanged. The Index has posted historically record high readings for six months, a performance eclipsed only in 1983. The modest decline in the Index was accounted for primarily by declining expectations for business conditions, most likely due to the turmoil in Washington, D.C. and plans to make capital expenditures.

Labor Markets. Small business owners reported a seasonally adjusted average employment change per firm of 0.19 workers per firm, a very strong showing and not consistent with last month's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Payroll Survey number which was a surprise on the low side, but was in agreement with the Household Survey number. Fourteen percent (up 2 points) reported increasing employment an average of 2.2 workers per firm and 10 percent (up 1 point) reported reducing employment an average of 3.5 workers per firm (seasonally adjusted). Fifty-five percent reported hiring or trying to hire (up 4 points), but 48 percent reported few or no qualified applicants for the positions they were trying to fill. Sixteen percent of owners cited the difficulty of finding qualified workers as their Single Most Important Business Problem (unchanged), far more than were concerned with weak sales. Thirty-three percent of all owners reported job openings they could not fill in the current period, up 3 points, and the highest reading since November 2000, the peak of the last expansion. Ten percent reported using temporary workers, down 3 points. A seasonally adjusted net 16 percent plan to create new jobs, unchanged and a very strong reading.

Capital Spending. Fifty-nine percent reported capital outlays, down 5 points after a surge in February and March. Of those making expenditures, 42 percent reported spending on new equipment (down 4 points), 26 percent acquired vehicles (unchanged), and 14 percent improved or expanded facilities (down 1 point). Six percent acquired new buildings or land for expansion (up 1 point) and 11 percent spent money for new fixtures and furniture (down 5 points). Overall, capital expenditures were solid after displaying some modest exuberance in the prior two months. The percent of owners planning capital outlays in the next 3 to 6 months dropped 2 points to 27 percent, just below the highest reading in the recovery but well below historical levels for periods of growth.

Sales. The net percent of all owners (seasonally adjusted) reporting higher nominal sales in the past three months compared to the prior three months was unchanged at 5 percent, the best reading since May 2015, the last time it registered a positive reading prior to 2017. Until 2017, year this measure has been positive in only six months since 2007 and as low as negative 35 percent. Seasonally adjusted, the net percent of owners expecting higher real sales volumes gained 2 points to a net 20 percent of owners.

Inventories. The net percent of owners reporting net inventory increases fell 1 point to a net negative 1 percent (seasonally adjusted), confirming an end to the accumulation reported in January which was strong. Shedding the excess stocks accumulated early in the first quarter lowered first quarter GDP estimates. The net percent of owners viewing current inventory stocks as "too low" improved 2 points to a net negative 3 percent, as firms trimmed their excess inventory stocks in the first quarter.

Inflation. The net percent of owners raising average selling prices was a net 7 percent (up 2 points), continuing a modest but steady increase in the percent of owners raising average selling prices. Ten percent of owners reported reducing their average selling prices in the past three months (down 2 points), and 20 percent reported price increases (up 1 point). The frequency of reported price hikes has ticked up since November, but not enough to produce a lot of inflation. Seasonally adjusted, a net 18 percent plan price hikes (down 2 points).

Compensation and Earnings. Reports of increased compensation fell 2 points to a net 26 percent, one of the best readings since February 2007 but below the recovery record level reached in January. Owners complain at recovery record rates of labor quality issues, with 87 percent of those hiring or trying to hire reporting few or no qualified applicants for their open positions. A near-recovery record 16 percent selected "finding qualified labor" as their top business problem, almost as many as cite the cost of regulatory compliance as their top challenge. Actual earnings was unchanged a net negative 9 percent reporting quarter on quarter profit improvements, historically an excellent reading and the best in this expansion.

Credit Markets. Only 3 percent of owners reported that all their borrowing needs were not satisfied, down 1 point. Thirty-two percent reported all credit needs met (unchanged), and 50 percent explicitly said they did not want a loan. However, including those who did not answer the question, 65 percent of owners have no interest in borrowing. Only 2 percent reported that financing was their top business problem compared to 21 percent citing taxes, 17 percent citing regulations and red tape, and 16 percent the availability of qualified labor. Weak sales garnered 10 percent of the vote.

source: NFIB


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