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posted on 05 May 2017

28 April 2017: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Decline Continues

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for over one year - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ECRI also released their inflation guage this week.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. Both indices are in a growth cycle but show the rate of growth slowing. They are indicating conditions 6 months from today should be somewhat better than today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. WLI Increases

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) increases to 144.4 from 143.2. The growth rate ticks down to 5.4% from 5.9%, a one-year low.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on CNBC.

- read Lakshman Achuthan's presentation '"America First" in Perspective' at the Minsky Conference.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The March index value (issued in April) shows the rate of economic growth improved.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. FIG Remains Elevated

U.S. inflationary pressures were unchanged in April, as the U.S. future inflation gauge held at 113.2, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG was flat in April, having stayed since mid-2016 around its highest readings since 2008," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "In other words, underlying inflation pressures are still heightened."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The March economy's rate of growth (released in April) showed the rate of growth unchanged..

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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