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posted on 28 April 2017

April 2017 Chicago Purchasing Managers Barometer New Orders Close To Three-Year High

The Chicago Business Barometer marginally improved and remained in expansion. This survey came in at the high end of expectations.

Analyst Opinion of Chicago PMI

The results of this survey continue to agree with district Federal Reserve manufacturing surveys - and aligns with the overall trend of the ISM manufacturing survey. And they were ALL wrong when the hard data came out for last month.

From Bloomberg / Econoday, the market expected the index between 55.0 to 58.4 (consensus 56.5) versus the actual at 58.3. A number below 50 indicates contraction. Shaily Mittal, senior economist at MNI Indicators stated,

The April Chicago report showcased another impressive month, with firms reporting solid growth. Rising demand and firm production led to a pick-up in hiring by firms. Although the employment indicator has been bumpy, in and out of contraction, if the current month's rise is sustained, it could provide a boost to the labor market.

From ISM Chicago:

The MNI Chicago Business Barometer increased to 58.3 in April from 57.7 in March, the highest level since January 2015.

Optimism among firms about business conditions rose for the third month in a row. Three of the five Barometer components led April's increase, with Production and Order Backlogs receding.

Demand continued to gain ground in April, rising for the third consecutive month. New orders rose by 5.5 points, to touch almost a three-year high. Off the back of two consecutive rises, the Production indicator fell 2.2 points to 59.5 from 61.7 in March. Order Backlogs contracted for the fifth consecutive month, although at a much faster rate than in recent months. Suppliers took longer to deliver key inputs, with the respective indicator 1.6 points higher at 56.0 in April.

Amid rising orders, demand for labor picked up. The Employment indicator leapt out of contraction territory after a brief dip below 50 last month. Although the indicator has expanded only seven times in last 24 months, it is showing tentative signs of a pick-up, sitting above 50 in two of the last three months.

z chicago pmi.png

The Chicago ISM is important as it is a window into the national ISM reports which will be issued shortly. When you compare the graph below of the ISM Manufacturing Index against the Chicago PMI (graph above) - there is a general correlation in trends, but not necessarily correlation in values.

source and read the full report: Chicago PMI

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