econintersect.com
       
  

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.



posted on 19 April 2017

February 2017 Philly Fed Coincident Index Ticks Marginally Up

The year-over-year rate of growth of the US Coincident Index marginally increased relative to last month's revised level. A comparison of this US Coincident Index with the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index, Conference Board Coincident Index, ECRI's Coincident Index, and the Chicago Fed National Activity Index follows.

Analyst Opinion of the Current Status of the Coincident Indicators

The reality is that most of the economic indicators have moderate to significant backward revision - but this month it seems the majority rear view mirror says the USA economy is slowing, flat or improving. Out of this group of coincident indicators discussed in this post, only ECRI and the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index have no backward revision - and both have a good track record of seeing the economy accurately in almost real time.

For February, it show that the economy is weak but not recessionary.

Economic indicators that coincide with economic movements are coincident indicators. Coincident indicators by definition do not provide a forward economic view. However, trends are valid until they are no longer valid, making the trend lines on the coincident indicators a forward forecasting tool.

Excerpt from Philly Fed Report for the United States Coincident Index

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia has released the coincident indexes for the 50 states for February 2017. Over the past three months, the indexes increased in 47 states, decreased in two, and remained stable in one, for a three-month diffusion index of 90. In the past month, the indexes increased in 44 states, decreased in four, and remained stable in two, for a one-month diffusion index of 80. For comparison purposes, the Philadelphia Fed has also developed a similar coincident index for the entire United States. The Philadelphia Fed's U.S. index rose 0.6 percent over the past three months and 0.3 percent in February.

[click graph below to enlarge]

z philly coincident.PNG

In the graph below, the blue line shows the year-over-year growth rate of the US Concident Index, while the darker blue line shows the month-over-month change. The year-over-year trend is down.

Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti Business Conditions Index

Per the Philly Fed:

The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index is designed to track real business conditions at high frequency. Its underlying (seasonally adjusted) economic indicators (weekly initial jobless claims; monthly payroll employment, industrial production, personal income less transfer payments, manufacturing and trade sales; and quarterly real GDP) blend high- and low-frequency information and stock and flow data. Both the ADS index and this web page are updated as data on the index's underlying components are released.

The average value of the ADS index is zero. Progressively bigger positive values indicate progressively better-than-average conditions, whereas progressively more negative values indicate progressively worse-than-average conditions. The ADS index may be used to compare business conditions at different times. A value of -3.0, for example, would indicate business conditions significantly worse than at any time in either the 1990-91 or the 2001 recession, during which the ADS index never dropped below -2.0.

The vertical lines on the figure provide information as to which indicators are available for which dates. For dates to the left of the left line, the ADS index is based on observed data for all six underlying indicators. For dates between the left and right lines, the ADS index is based on at least two monthly indicators (typically employment and industrial production) and initial jobless claims. For dates to the right of the right line, the ADS index is based on initial jobless claims and possibly one monthly indicator.

Conference Board's Coincident Index (red line):

z conference.png

ECRI's USCI (U.S. Coincident Index):

z ecri_coin.png

Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI)

Summary

Note that the release dates vary with some indices with March data, others with February. Even so, generally the coincident indices are showing weak growth except for the CFNAI which is showing stronger than average growth (however the CFNAI is subject to significant backward revision): Econintersect's analysis of the coincident indices is that:

  • The Philly Fed US Coincident index shows the annual rate of growth although improving this month is showing weak growth.
  • The Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions shows above average business conditions.
  • The rate of growth of the Conference Board Coincident Index is stable with slow growth.
  • ECRi's Coincident Index's rate of growth marginally declined.
  • The CFNAI rate of growth is now above the historical trend rate of growth (zero line) - and is showing some improving growth.


>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<



Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing










Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.






Econintersect Economic Releases








search_box
Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF


The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.







Keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government





























 navigate econintersect.com

Blogs

Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day
Weather

Newspapers

Asia / Pacific
Europe
Middle East / Africa
Americas
USA Government
     

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed
Google+
Facebook
Twitter
Digg

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution

Contact

About

  Top Economics Site

Investing.com Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2017 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved