econintersect .com

FREE NEWSLETTER: Econintersect sends a nightly newsletter highlighting news events of the day, and providing a summary of new articles posted on the website. Econintersect will not sell or pass your email address to others per our privacy policy. You can cancel this subscription at any time by selecting the unsubscribing link in the footer of each email.

posted on 12 April 2017

Import and Export Price Year-over-Year Inflation Mixed

Written by Steven Hansen

Import and export price growth continues although the year-over-year rate of increase slowed for imports.

Analyst Opinion of the Import / Export Price Situation

The elephant in this significant inflation is fuel / oil and agriculture commodities. If one ignores these commodities, the year-over-year inflation rate for imports and exports is much lower than the CPI. Another way to look at this data is that overall - import and export data is now inflating faster than other price indices.

Import Oil prices were down 3.8 % month-over-month, and export agricultural prices were up 0.9 %.

  • with import prices down 0,2 % month-over-month, up 4.2 % year-over-year;
  • and export prices up 0.2 % month-over-month, up 3.6 % year-over-year..
  • the markets were expecting (from Bloomberg):
Consensus Range Consensus Actual
Import Prices - M/M change -0.5 % to 0.1 % -0.2 % -0.2 %
Export Prices - M/M change -0.5 % to 0.4 % +0.1 % +0.2 %

There is only marginal correlation between economic activity, recessions and export / import prices. Prices can be rising or falling going into a recession or entering a period of expansion. Econintersect follows this data series to adjust economic activity for the effects of inflation where there are clear relationships.

Econintersect follows this series to adjust data for inflation.

Year-over-Year Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

There are three cases of deflation outside of a recession - early 1990′s, late 1990′s, and mid 2000′s. Import price deflation is normally associated with strengthening of the dollar relative to other currencies.

According to the press release:

All Imports: Import prices fell 0.2 percent in March, after increasing 1.4 percent over the previous 3 months. Prior to the March downturn, import prices trended up over most of the past 12 months, advancing 4.2 percent between March 2016 and March 2017. In contrast, import prices fell 6.1 percent for the previous 12-month period.

All Exports: Prices for U.S. exports rose 0.2 percent in March, continuing an upward trend since the index last fell on a monthly basis in August. Higher prices for agricultural exports and nonagricultural exports each contributed to the advance in March. U.S. export prices also increased over the past year, rising 3.6 percent for the year ended in March. That matched the 12-month advance recorded in December 2011 and was the largest over-the-year increase since the index rose 4.8 percent in November 2011.

How moderate the price "increases" have been over the past year is obvious from the graphic below.

Month-over-Month Change - Import Prices (blue line) and Export Prices (red line)

The biggest mover of import and export prices are usually oil (imports) and agricultural products (exports).

Oil Import Price Change Month-over-Month (blue line) and Agriculture Export Change Month-over-Month (red line)

Export / Import prices are the first inflation numbers reported each month.

Caveats on the Use of the Export / Import Price Index

Both import and export prices index values shown in this post is a weighted average for the the entire category of exports or imports. The BLS has many sub-categories relating to a particular commodity or goods. Econintersect using spot checks believes these subindexes are accurate.

>>>>> Scroll down to view and make comments <<<<<<

Permanent link to most recent post on this topic

Click here for Historical Releases Listing

Make a Comment

Econintersect wants your comments, data and opinion on the articles posted. You can also comment using Facebook directly using he comment block below.

Econintersect Economic Releases

Print this page or create a PDF file of this page
Print Friendly and PDF

The growing use of ad blocking software is creating a shortfall in covering our fixed expenses. Please consider a donation to Econintersect to allow continuing output of quality and balanced financial and economic news and analysis.

Keep up with economic news using our dynamic economic newspapers with the largest international coverage on the internet
Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

 navigate econintersect .com


Analysis Blog
News Blog
Investing Blog
Opinion Blog
Precious Metals Blog
Markets Blog
Video of the Day


Asia / Pacific
Middle East / Africa
USA Government

RSS Feeds / Social Media

Combined Econintersect Feed

Free Newsletter

Marketplace - Books & More

Economic Forecast

Content Contribution



  Top Economics Site Contributor TalkMarkets Contributor Finance Blogs Free PageRank Checker Active Search Results Google+

This Web Page by Steven Hansen ---- Copyright 2010 - 2018 Econintersect LLC - all rights reserved