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posted on 17 March 2017

10 March 2017: ECRI's WLI Growth Index Shows Continued Moderate Slowing Of Rate of Growth

ECRI's WLI Growth Index which forecasts economic growth six months forward remains in positive territory for the 51st week - after spending the previous 35 consecutive weeks in negative territory. This is compared to RecessionAlerts similar weekly leading index. ECRI also released their coincident index.

Analyst Opinion of the trends of the weekly leading indices

Both ECRI's and RecessionAlerts indicies are indicating moderate growth six months from today. Both indices are in a growth cycle but show the rate of growth slowing. They are indicating conditions 6 months from today should be somewhat better than today.

Current ECRI WLI Level and Growth Index:

Here is this week's update on ECRI's Weekly Leading Index (note - a positive number indicates growth):

U.S. WLI Ticked Up

The U.S. Weekly Leading Index (WLI) ticked up to 145.5 from 145.2. The growth rate edged down to 9.6% from 9.8%.



To put the economy in perspective please see links below:

- read ECRI's "Fed Not Crying Wolf".

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's current interview on Reuters.

- watch Lakshman Achuthan's recent interview on MSNBC.

For a closer look at recent moves in the U.S. Weekly Leading Index, see the chart below:

Comparison to RecessionAlert Weekly Indicator

RecessionAlert also produces a weekly foreward indicator using different pulse points tha ECRI's WLI. Here is a graph from dshort.com which compares the two indices. Both indices are showing nearly the same rate of growth.

Coincident Index:

ECRI produces a monthly coincident index - a positive number shows economic expansion. The February index value (issued in March) shows the rate of economic growth marginally slowing.

z ecri_coin.png

ECRI produces a monthly inflation index - a positive number shows increasing inflation pressure.

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge:

z ecri_infl.PNG

U.S. Future Inflation Gauge Rises

U.S. inflationary pressures were up in February, as the U.S. future inflation gauge increased to 113.4 from a 113.0 reading in January, according to data released Friday morning by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.

"The USFIG inched up further in February, staying in a cyclical upswing," ECRI Chief Operations Officer Lakshman Achuthan said in a release. "Thus, underlying inflation pressures remain in a rising trend."

ECRI produces a monthly Lagging index. The January economy's rate of growth (released in February) showed the rate of growth declined..

U.S. Lagging Index:

z ecri_lag.PNG

source: ECRI



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