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posted on 07 March 2017

January 2017 CoreLogic Home Prices Year-over-Year Growth Rate Now 6.9%.

CoreLogic's Home Price Index (HPI) shows that home prices in the USA are up 6.9 % year-over-year year-over-year (reported up 0.7 % month-over-month). Last month's 7.2 % year-over-year gain was revised downward to 6.3 %. CoreLogic HPI is used in the Federal Reserves' Flow of Funds to calculate the values of residential real estate.

Analyst Opinion of CoreLogic's HPI

CoreLogic has been revising their data significantly downward in the following month - I would not take the 6.9 % to the bank. However, I would be comfortable suggesting that next month we will discover that the 6.9 % was really 6.3 % (similar to what happened this month). Overall, home price growth trends seem to be marginally trending up - likely do to the low inventory levels of homes for sale.

Dr Frank Nothaft, chief economist for CoreLogic stated:

With lean for-sale inventories and low rental vacancy rates, many markets have seen housing prices outpace inflation. Over the 12 months through January of this year, the CoreLogic Home Price Index recorded a 6.9 percent rise in home prices nationally and the CoreLogic Single-Family Rental Index was up 2.7 percent-both rising faster than inflation.

z corelogic2.PNG

Frank Martell, president and CEO of CoreLogic stated:

Home prices continue to climb across the nation, and the spring home buying season is shaping up to be one of the strongest in recent memory. A potent mix of progressive economic recovery, demographics, tight housing stocks and continued low mortgage rates are expected to support this robust market outlook for the foreseeable future. We expect the CoreLogic Home Price Index to rise 4.8 percent nationally over the next 12 months, buoyed by lack of supply and continued high demand.

Comparison of Home Price Indices - Case-Shiller 3 Month Average (blue line, left axis), CoreLogic (green line, left axis) and National Association of Realtors (red line, right axis)

z existing3.PNG

The way to understand the dynamics of home prices is to watch the direction of the rate of change - and not necessarily whether the prices are getting better or worse. Home price rate of growth is now marginally improving.

Year-over-Year Price Change Home Price Indices - Case-Shiller 3 Month Average (blue bar), CoreLogic (yellow bar) and National Association of Realtors (red bar)

z existing5.PNG

Caveats Relating to Home Price Indices

There is no such thing as an "accurate" home price index. CoreLogic HPI is a repeat sales type index which should not be skewed by changes in the mix of home sales. For more information, please read: http://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/publications/research-rap/2014/house-price-indexes.pdf

Steven Hansen

Source: CoreLogic



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