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posted on 11 February 2017

First Quarter 2017 Survey of Professional Forecasters Forecasters See Brighter Outlook for Growth and Labor Markets over the Next Three Years

from the Philadelphia Fed

The U.S. economy looks stronger now than it did three months ago, according to 42 forecasters surveyed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.

The forecasters predict real GDP will grow at an annual rate of 2.2 percent this quarter and 2.3 percent next quarter. On an annual-average over annual-average basis, the forecasters predict real GDP growing 2.3 percent in 2017, 2.4 percent in 2018, and 2.6 percent in 2019. The forecasts for 2017, 2018, and 2019 are higher than the estimates of three months ago. For 2020, real GDP is estimated to grow 2.1 percent.

A brighter outlook for the labor market accompanies the outlook for stronger output growth. The forecasters predict that the unemployment rate will average 4.6 percent in 2017, 4.5 percent in 2018 and 2019, and 4.6 percent in 2020. The projections for 2017, 2018, and 2019 are below those of the last survey, indicating a brighter outlook for unemployment.

The panelists also predict an improvement in the employment outlook for 2017. The forecasters' projections for the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment suggest job gains at a monthly rate of 180,300 in 2017, up from the previous estimate of 173,600. (These annual-average estimates are computed as the year-to-year change in the annual-average level of nonfarm payroll employment, converted to a monthly rate.)

Median Forecasts for Selected Variables in the Current and Previous Surveys

Real GDP (%)

Unemployment Rate (%)

Payrolls (000s/month)

Previous

New

Previous

New

Previous

New

Quarterly data:
2017:Q1

2.2

2.2

4.8

4.7

161.0

184.3

2017:Q2

2.2

2.3

4.7

4.6

179.2

167.0

2017:Q3

2.2

2.4

4.7

4.6

166.2

168.9

2017:Q4

2.2

2.4

4.7

4.5

166.0

160.3

2018:Q1

N.A.

2.2

N.A.

4.5

N.A.

157.6

Annual data (projections are based on annual-average levels):
2017

2.2

2.3

4.7

4.6

173.6

180.3

2018

2.1

2.4

4.6

4.5

N.A.

164.5

2019

2.1

2.6

4.7

4.5

N.A.

N.A.

2020

N.A.

2.1

N.A.

4.6

N.A.

N.A.

The charts below provide some insight into the degree of uncertainty the forecasters have about their projections for the rate of growth in the annual-average level of real GDP. Each chart (except the one for 2020) presents the forecasters' previous and current estimates of the probability that growth will fall into each of 11 ranges. The charts show the forecasters have revised upward their estimates of the probability that real GDP growth will be above 3.0 percent in 2017, 2018, and 2019.

The forecasters' density projections for unemployment, shown below, shed light on uncertainty about the labor market over the next four years. Each chart presents the forecasters' current estimates of the probability that unemployment will fall into each of 10 ranges. The charts show the panelists are raising their density estimates over the next three years at the range of 4.0 percent to 4.9 percent of unemployment outcomes.

Forecasters See Higher Inflation

The forecasters expect higher headline CPI inflation in 2017 and 2018 than they predicted three months ago. Measured on a fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter basis, headline CPI inflation is expected to average 2.4 percent in 2017 and 2.3 percent in 2018, up from 2.2 percent in both 2017 and 2018 in the last survey. The forecasters have also revised upward slightly their projections for headline PCE inflation in 2017 to 2.0 percent, up from 1.9 percent in the survey of three months ago.

Over the next 10 years, 2017 to 2026, the forecasters expect headline CPI inflation to average 2.30 percent at an annual rate. The corresponding estimate for 10-year annual-average PCE inflation is 2.10 percent.

Median Short-Run and Long-Run Projections for Inflation (Annualized Percentage Points)

Headline CPI

Core CPI

Headline PCE

Core PCE

Previous

Current

Previous

Current

Previous

Current

Previous

Current

Quarterly
2017:Q1

2.2

2.5

2.2

2.4

1.8

2.0

1.8

1.8

2017:Q2

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.2

1.9

2.0

1.8

1.9

2017:Q3

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.1

1.9

2.0

1.9

1.9

2017:Q4

2.2

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.0

2.1

1.9

1.9

2018:Q1

N.A.

2.4

N.A.

2.3

N.A.

2.1

N.A.

2.0

Q4/Q4 Annual Averages
2017

2.2

2.4

2.2

2.2

1.9

2.0

1.9

1.9

2018

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.0

2019

N.A.

2.3

N.A.

2.2

N.A.

2.0

N.A.

2.0

Long-Term Annual Averages
2016-2020

2.13

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

1.90

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

2017-2021

N.A.

2.30

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

2.03

N.A.

N.A.

2016-2025

2.22

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

2.00

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

2017-2026

N.A.

2.30

N.A.

N.A.

N.A.

2.10

N.A.

N.A.

The charts below show the median projections (the red line) and the associated interquartile ranges (gray areas around the red line) for the projections for 10-year annual-average CPI and PCE inflation. The top panel shows a higher level of the long-term projection for CPI inflation, at 2.3 percent. The bottom panel depicts the higher 10-year forecast for PCE inflation, at 2.1 percent.

The figures below show the probabilities that the forecasters are assigning to the possibility that fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter core PCE inflation in 2017 and 2018 will fall into each of 10 ranges. For 2017, the forecasters have increased the probability that core PCE inflation will be above 2.0 percent, compared with their estimates in the survey of three months ago.

Lower Risk of a Negative Quarter

The forecasters have revised downward the chance of a contraction in real GDP in any of the next four quarters. For the current quarter, the forecasters predict a 7.7 percent chance of negative growth, down from 14.0 percent in the survey of three months ago. The panelists have also made downward revisions to their forecasts for the next three quarters in 2017.

Risk of a Negative Quarter (%)
Survey Means
Quarterly data: Previous New
2017:Q1

14.0

7.7

2017:Q2

15.0

11.2

2017:Q3

16.5

14.6

2017:Q4

18.9

16.2

2018:Q1

N.A.

17.7

Forecasters State Their Views on Home Price Growth over the Next Two Years

In this survey, a special question asked panelists to provide their forecasts for fourth-quarter over fourth-quarter growth in house prices, as measured by a number of alternative indices. The panelists were allowed to choose their measure from a list of indices or to write in their own index. For each index of their choosing, the panelists provided forecasts for growth in 2017 and 2018.

Eighteen panelists answered the special question. Some panelists provided projections for more than one index. The table below provides a summary of the forecasters' responses. The number of responses (N) is low for each index. The median estimates for the seven house-price indices listed in the table below range from 3.9 percent to 5.4 percent in 2017 and from 3.8 percent to 4.7 percent in 2018.

Projections for Growth in Various Indices of House Prices
Q4/Q4, Percentage Points

2017
(Q4/Q4 Percent Change)

2018
(Q4/Q4 Percent Change)

Index

N

Mean

Median

N

Mean

Median

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller: U.S. National

7

3.8

5.0

7

3.6

4.3

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller: Composite 10

3

3.9

4.0

3

4.0

3.8

S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller: Composite 20

4

4.0

3.9

4

3.8

4.0

FHFA: U.S. Total

7

5.4

5.4

7

4.4

4.5

FHFA: Purchase Only

6

4.5

4.9

6

4.0

4.4

CoreLogic: National HPI, incl. Distressed Sales (Single Family Combined)

3

4.4

4.5

3

4.1

4.0

NAR Median: Total Existing

1

5.4

5.4

1

4.7

4.7

Forecasters See Higher Long-Run Growth in Output and Productivity and in Returns to Financial Assets

In our first-quarter surveys, the forecasters provide their long-run projections for an expanded set of variables, including growth in output and productivity, as well as returns on financial assets.

As the table below shows, the forecasters have increased their estimates for the annual-average rate of growth in real GDP over the next 10 years. Currently, the forecasters expect real GDP to grow at an annual-average rate of 2.45 percent over the next 10 years, up from their projection of 2.28 percent in the first-quarter survey of 2016. Ten-year annual average productivity growth is now expected to average 1.60 percent, up from 1.40 percent.

Upward revisions to the return on the financial assets accompany the current outlook. The forecasters see the S&P 500 returning an annual-average 6.00 percent per year over the next 10 years, up from 5.37 percent in last year's first-quarter survey. The forecasters expect the rate on 10-year Treasuries to average 3.86 percent over the next 10 years, up from 3.39 percent in last year's first-quarter survey. Three-month Treasury bills will return an annual-average 2.50 percent per year over the next 10 years, unchanged from last year's survey.

Median Long-Term (10-Year) Forecasts (%)
First Quarter 2016 Current Survey
Real GDP Growth

2.28

2.45

Productivity Growth

1.40

1.60

Stock Returns (S&P 500)

5.37

6.00

Rate on 10-Year Treasury Bonds

3.39

3.86

Bill Returns (3-Month)

2.50

2.50

Technical Notes

Moody's Aaa and Baa Historical Rates

The historical values of Moody's Aaa and Baa rates are proprietary and, therefore, not available in the data files on the Bank's website or on the tables that accompany the survey's complete write-up in the PDF.

New File Format Coming

On May 12, 2017, the survey's data files on the Bank's website will be changed to a .xlsx extension instead of .xls.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia thanks the following forecasters for their participation in recent surveys:

Lewis Alexander, Nomura Securities; Scott Anderson, Bank of the West (BNP Paribas Group); Robert J. Barbera, Johns Hopkins University Center for Financial Economics; Peter Bernstein, RCF Economic and Financial Consulting, Inc.; Christine Chmura, Ph.D., and Xiaobing Shuai, Ph.D., Chmura Economics & Analytics; Gary Ciminero, CFA, GLC Financial Economics; Nathaniel Curtis, Navigant Consulting; Gregory Daco, Oxford Economics USA, Inc.; Rajeev Dhawan, Georgia State University; Robert Dietz, National Association of Home Builders; Gabriel Ehrlich, Daniil Manaenkov, Ben Meiselman, and Aditi Thapar, RSQE, University of Michigan; Michael R. Englund, Action Economics, LLC; J.D. Foster, U.S. Chamber of Commerce; Michael Gapen, Barclays Capital; James Glassman, JPMorgan Chase & Co.; Jan Hatzius, Goldman Sachs; Keith Hembre, Nuveen Asset Management; Peter Hooper, Deutsche Bank Securities, Inc.; IHS Markit; Sam Kahan, Kahan Consulting Ltd. (ACT Research LLC); N. Karp, BBVA Research USA; Walter Kemmsies, Jones Lang LaSalle; Jack Kleinhenz, Kleinhenz & Associates, Inc.; Thomas Lam, RHB Securities Singapore Pte. Ltd.; L. Douglas Lee, Economics from Washington; John Lonski, Moody's Capital Markets Group; Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC; R. Anthony Metz, Pareto Optimal Economics; Michael Moran, Daiwa Capital Markets America; Joel L. Naroff, Naroff Economic Advisors; Mark Nielson, Ph.D., MacroEcon Global Advisors; Luca Noto, Anima Sgr; Brendon Ogmundson, BC Real Estate Association; Tom Porcelli, RBC Capital Markets; Arun Raha and Maira Trimble, Eaton Corporation; Philip Rothman, East Carolina University; Chris Rupkey, MUFG Union Bank; John Silvia, Wells Fargo; Allen Sinai, Decision Economics, Inc.; Sean M. Snaith, Ph.D., University of Central Florida; Constantine G. Soras, Ph.D., CGS Economic Consulting; Stephen Stanley, Amherst Pierpont Securities; Charles Steindel, Ramapo College of New Jersey; Susan M. Sterne, Economic Analysis Associates, Inc.; James Sweeney, Credit Suisse; Thomas Kevin Swift, American Chemistry Council; Richard Yamarone, Bloomberg, LP; Mark Zandi, Moody's Analytics; Ellen Zentner, Morgan Stanley.

This is a partial list of participants. We also thank those who wish to remain anonymous.

Source

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/research-and-data/real-time-center/survey-of-professional-forecasters/2017/survq117


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