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posted on 30 January 2017

January 2017 Texas Manufacturing Survey Continues to Expand But Key Internals Mixed

Of the five Federal Reserve districts which have released their January manufacturing surveys - all are in expansion. A complete summary follows.

Analyst Opinion of Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey

One must assume with surveys that change in values is relative to the previous month. This survey remained in positive territory with new orders in positive territory, but unfilled orders remains in contraction. This really a mixed report.

There was no consensus from Bloomberg / Econoday, and the reported value was ---. From the Dallas Fed:

Texas factory activity increased for the seventh consecutive month in January, according to business executives responding to the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Survey. The production index, a key measure of state manufacturing conditions, edged down but remained positive at 11.9, suggesting output growth continued but at a slightly slower pace this month.

Other measures of current manufacturing activity also indicated expansion. The new orders index climbed to a multiyear high of 15.7, while the growth rate of orders index returned to positive territory, rising 8 points to 6.7. The capacity utilization index posted a seventh positive reading in a row, although it moved down to 9.1 this month. The shipments index rose 10 points to 15.8, with more than a third of manufacturers noting a rise in shipment volumes from December.

Perceptions of broader business conditions improved further this month. The general business activityindex posted a fourth consecutive positive reading and moved up to 22.1, its highest reading since April 2010. The company outlook index pushed up to 25.0, also a level not seen since 2010.

Labor market measures indicated employment gains and longer workweeks. The employment index bounced back to 6.1 after dipping into negative territory last month. Twenty-three percent of firms noted net hiring, compared with 17 percent noting net layoffs. The hours worked index moved up to 9.1, its strongest reading since the end of 2015.

Upward price pressures remained relatively strong, and wages continued to rise in January. The raw materials and finished goods prices indexes were nearly unchanged at 30.8 and 17.7, respectively. The wages and benefits index also held fairly steady at 20.8.

Source: Dallas Fed

Summary of all Federal Reserve Districts Manufacturing:

Richmond Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z richmond_man.PNG

Kansas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z kansas_man.PNG

Dallas Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z dallas_man.PNG

Philly Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z philly fed1.PNG

New York Fed (hyperlink to reports):

z empire1.PNG

Federal Reserve Industrial Production - Actual Data (hyperlink to report):

Holding this and other survey's Econintersect follows accountable for their predictions, the following graph compares the hard data from Industrial Products manufacturing subindex (dark blue bar) and US Census manufacturing shipments (lighter blue bar) to the Dallas Fed survey (light blue bar).

Comparing Surveys to Hard Data:

z survey1.png

In the above graphic, hard data is the long bars, and surveys are the short bars. The arrows on the left side are the key to growth or contraction.

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